The so-called cobalt-free battery is generally considered to be a lithium iron phosphate battery with high probability. Affected by this, lithium ferrous phosphate broke out in February 19, and more than a dozen stocks such as German Nano, Golden Eagle, Sanyang and Qianjiang Motorcycle directly went up and down, and German Nano went up for two consecutive days.
BYD (002594) in the field of lithium iron phosphate battery 1 has a daily limit today, with a cumulative increase of13.5% in two days; BYD's gains in Hong Kong stocks (0 12 1 1) were even worse. Today, its share price rose by 1 1.43%.
Since 20 17, will the lithium iron phosphate battery, which was robbed by ternary lithium battery, make a comeback with Tesla's cobalt-free battery?
Was robbed of the protagonist's aura by ternary lithium.
Before discussing whether lithium iron phosphate batteries will make a comeback, it is necessary for us to analyze why lithium iron phosphate is replaced by lithium ternary.
Compared with thermal ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have obvious advantages, including three points:
1, the crystal is stable, the safety performance is good, it is not easy to spontaneously ignite and explode (many accidents happened last year have scared everyone), and its stability in high temperature or high heat environment is stronger than that of ternary lithium battery;
2. The cycle service life reaches more than 2000 times, and the service life is as long as 7-8 years;
3, the charging efficiency is high, and the lithium iron phosphate battery of 1.5C can be fully charged in 40 minutes;
The cost is low. At present, the industry average cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is 0.65 yuan /Wh, which is about a quarter cheaper than 0.85 yuan /Wh of ternary lithium battery.
With these four advantages, lithium ferrous phosphate was kicked out by Li Sanyuan. What is the reason? Because energy density can't spell the latter.
The single energy density of lithium iron phosphate power battery in 20 15 years is 120Wh/kg, and the energy density after grouping is 80Wh/kg, which is different from the ternary lithium battery with energy density of 180Wh/kg and grouping of10wh/kg.
This year, the State Council released "Made in China 2025", which set the development goal of power battery system as "the specific energy of single battery reaches above 400Wh/kg". In addition, the energy density and cruising range of the battery pack are the main indicators in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which makes the new energy automobile enterprises pursuing high subsidies abandon the lithium ferrous phosphate route and switch to ternary lithium.
According to the association data, in 20 17 years, the market share of lithium ferrous phosphate was basically the same as that of lithium ternary. By 20 18, the share of lithium ferrous phosphate has dropped to less than 40%, while lithium ternary is as high as 57%.
The ternary lithium battery with higher battery density and longer battery life has since taken the lead.
The counter-attack opportunity of lithium ferrous phosphate has come.
The ternary lithium battery that was pushed to the C position by the subsidy policy, because the subsidy was cut in July 2065438+2009, the subsidy will be completely cancelled in the future, and the aura will gradually fade.
The opportunity for lithium ferrous phosphate to counterattack came.
It can be seen from the data of the Federation that as early as 20 19, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries showed signs of rising. Especially in June and July, the demand for LiFePO4 increased by 765,438+0% and 65,438+0,665,438+0% respectively, greatly exceeding 2065,438+06-65,438+0,065,438+08.
On the other hand, the demand for ternary lithium batteries began to decline in July, that is, after the subsidy for new energy vehicles was halved, and the performance was weak in the second half of the year.
The advantages of good safety performance and low cost have enabled new energy vehicle companies to focus on lithium ferrous phosphate again. The core reason why Tesla cooperates with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to use cobalt-free batteries is that Tesla, which is more expensive, hopes to further reduce costs and cut into the low-end market.
Another important reason for the resurgence of lithium ferrous phosphate is a major technological breakthrough.
BYD's latest lithium ferrous phosphate "blade battery" will be mass-produced. By flattening the battery core, the energy density can be increased by 50% compared with the traditional lithium-iron battery, and the battery life of the whole vehicle can reach more than 8 years, 654.38+0.2 million kilometers.
Wang Chuanfu, the head of BYD, also said that BYD plans to increase the single energy density to 180 Wh/kg and the system energy density to 160 Wh/kg in the next two years, which is almost the same as that of ternary lithium batteries.
According to the latest energy promotion catalogue published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the first BYD Korean EV pure electric vehicle equipped with "blade battery" has a maximum battery life of 605 kilometers, which is very close to the ternary lithium battery electric vehicle with the maximum battery life (650 kilometers).
Not only that, the unit production cost of BYD batteries will also drop by 30%.
The short board of energy density has been corrected, and the cost advantage is further highlighted. Lithium iron phosphate battery has another chance to exert its fist.
Who is the C position in the power battery industry?
So, will lithium iron phosphate battery regain the C position in the power battery industry?
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With the development of new energy vehicles, the technical route is gradually showing a trend of letting a hundred flowers blossom. In addition to being regarded as orthodox pure electric vehicles, there are new energy vehicles such as plug-in, hybrid, extended-range and hydrogen fuel, all of which are transitional products of pure electric vehicles.
The same is true for power batteries. In addition to the contest between lithium ferrous phosphate and ternary lithium, there are also lithium ions, lithium manganate, hydrogen fuel and solid-state batteries.
Although lithium ferrous phosphate and ternary lithium are hot, in the automobile industry, more and more people think that fuel cells or solid-state batteries are the ultimate energy goals.
At present, hydrogen fuel cells have been used in mass production vehicles. The advantage is that the battery life is higher than that of lithium battery, and it only takes 3 minutes to fully charge. The disadvantage is that the manufacturing cost and use cost are high, and it is difficult to popularize basic network facilities such as hydrogen refueling stations.
Solid-state batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high safety and light weight, but the disadvantages are also obvious, that is, the current technology is not stable enough and the cost is high.
It can be seen that both fuel cells and solid-state batteries have the same disadvantage: the cost is too high. In other words, these two technical routes will not be widely used in a short time.
Several technical routes of power battery have their own advantages and disadvantages, in fact, they all have their necessity.
Lithium ferrous phosphate with the lowest cost and energy density mainly occupies the low-end market; Lithium ternary with moderate cost and energy density focuses on the mid-end market; Hydrogen fuel and solid-state batteries with the highest cost and the best endurance performance are mainly carried on high-end models.
In the future new energy vehicle market, what we will see is the situation that several kinds of power batteries are in full bloom.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.