At present, there are more than 1000 stocks listed and circulated in Shenzhen-Shanghai Stock Exchange in China, and the differentiation of individual stocks is obvious. The strong and the weak have become the characteristics of the current market, and stock selection is becoming more and more important. By tracking and analyzing the strong stocks in the weak market, this paper discusses a more effective stock selection idea.

First, stock selection ideas

1, guiding ideology

The main funds, whether building positions or shipping, are always ahead of ordinary investors in the market. At the end of the long market adjustment, it is often a good opportunity for the main funds to open positions. Just as predators always splash when they enter the water, the main force will increase the capital investment or operation of a stock, and most of this stock will have some abnormal trends in the secondary market. As an ordinary investor, there are usually only two things that can really be grasped from the market appearance: the gradual activity of trading volume and the toughness of stock price, which are relatively based on the market index. Based on the above reasons, we choose stocks with strong resilience in the weak market as the main target of opening positions when the market strengthens in the future, and take this as the main guiding ideology of stock selection.

2. Analytical methods

Select a period when the market is obviously adjusted downward, and select some strong stocks as samples to count their fluctuation range and trading volume. Then select an obvious rising band again in the subsequent rising process of the market, track the selected sample stocks, count their gains in the rising band, and compare them with the gains of the market, so as to verify the actual effect of selecting strong stocks in the weak.

3. Choice of ups and downs

(1) Select the down band from 19991October 28th to1February 27th, 999. From the analysis of the daily K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index, this band is the last stage of the obvious decline for two months since the Shanghai Composite Index was lowered from 10 in September, 1999.

(2) Select the rising band of 1999 from February 28th to February 7th, 2000. It can be clearly seen from the K-line of Shanghai Stock Exchange that after entering the New Year, the market has gone out of a wave of obvious rising prices. February 17 hit the highest point of this market, and the rising band and the selected falling band are also continuous in time.

4. Selection of samples

Rank the stock gains in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during the period from1October 28th 10 to February 27th 10, and select 20 stocks before 10 in the two trading markets as the strong stocks in the weak position. They are:

Shanghai: ST Bohua (600874), Fashion (600825), Jin Feng Investment (600606), Ningbo Huatong (600768), Quanxing (600779), ST Shiyequan (600892), Variety (600770), Shanghai Meilin (6007).

Shenzhen: Yi 'an Technology (0008), Guhan Group (0590), ST Qiong Energy (0502), Chongqing Huaya (0402), Salonda (0553), Sunshine Co., Ltd. (0608), Katie Power (0793) and ST Gemstone (04/kloc-0).

Second, the practical performance tracking analysis

1, the performance of strong stocks in the down period (see table 1 and table 2)

2. Track the performance of 20 sample stocks in the rising market (see Table 3 and Table 4).

Third, the analysis conclusion

1, strong stocks in the downtrend band rose against the trend.

During the obvious unilateral decline from 1999165438+ on October 28th to165438+ on February 27th, 999, the average index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 12.46% and 13.98% respectively. The sample stocks we selected in the above data table performed strongly in the weak market, and the activity of individual stock turnover was much higher than the market average, indicating that most of these strong stocks were taken care of by the main funds.

2. Strong stocks in the rising band are stronger than the broader market.

In the obvious rising market of 1999 from February 28th to February 28th, 2000, most of the 20 sample stocks outperformed the broader market. Among them, only three stocks in Shanghai were weaker than the broader market, the other seven stocks rose far more than the broader market, and only two stocks in Shenzhen rose weaker than the broader market. The average expected return of sample stocks in the two cities reached 7 1.46%, while the average increase in the two cities was 26.34%, which was 2.7 times that of the broader market. From the perspective of turnover rate, the average turnover rate of 20 sample stocks is 1 19%, which is twice that of the broader market. In addition, the bull stocks on the market in the first half of the year, such as Shanghai Meilin, Yi 'an Technology, Variety Shares, Sunshine Shares, Guhan Group and Jin Feng Investment, are among our 20 sample stocks. The choice of sample stocks is objective, and it is completely chosen according to the order of ups and downs in the down period, so this is an exciting discovery.

From the above analysis, we can draw the following conclusions.

The 20 sample stocks selected by the downtrend belt of the broader market performed far better than the broader market when there was a market. Moreover, there are many super-strong stocks, and the market test proves that it is feasible to choose strong stocks in the weak.

Fourth, the relevant attention factors

1, scope of application

This idea of stock selection has certain limitations and is only suitable for stock selection in weak markets. The downtrend band we chose lasted for two months. Facts have proved that the longer the adjustment time, that is, it is best to make an intermediate adjustment, the higher the accuracy of this method will be, but it is not applicable in a balanced market or bull market.

2. Seize the buying opportunity

This paper only discusses what stocks to buy. Once some target stocks are selected, when to buy them is not clear. According to the author's personal experience, the main work of the downtrend band is stock selection, follow-up observation and constant adjustment. In this process, it is not suitable for purchase. The real buying time should be after the market shows obvious signs of strength.