Under the impact of the first dollar crisis, in August 197 1, President Nixon announced that he would stop fulfilling the obligation of foreign governments or central banks to exchange dollars for gold from the United States, and the Bretton Woods system disintegrated. In February of the same year, the price of gold rose from $35/ounce to $38/ounce. 1973 in February, under the impact of the second dollar crisis, the price of gold rose to 42.22 USD/oz. 1976, the world entered the era of Jamaican system. In the same year, the Jamaican Agreement signed in 1 stipulated that the gold content of national currencies would no longer be stipulated and gold would no longer be used as the standard of currency parity, thus starting the process of non-monetization of gold. After the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system, the pent-up demand for gold consumption was released, and the international gold price rose sharply in the short term. Coupled with the violent turmoil in the international political situation from 65438 to 0979, the American hostage crisis in Iran and the invasion of Afghanistan by the former Soviet Union occurred one after another. Under the combined effect of these factors, the international gold price reached $850/oz at 5438+0980+ 10/8 in June, which was the highest price in the international gold market at that time.
In the second half of 1980s, the world economy maintained low inflation and rapid growth, and the role of gold as a hedge declined, so did the price of gold. Moreover, under the Jamaican system, the role of gold in international settlement has declined, and central banks in some countries have begun to reduce their gold reserves, and the behavior of central banks selling gold has also pushed down the price of gold. In short, from 1980 to 1, the international gold price has been in a downward trend since it soared to the highest point in history. At the beginning of 200 1 year, the international gold price fell to 255.95 USD/oz.
After the 200 1 US 9. 1 1 incident, the world suddenly re-examined the hedging function of gold, and the international gold market ended its 20-year downward trend and entered an upward channel. From June 5438 to February 2004, the international gold price rose to $456.75 per ounce. In the second half of 2005, the price of gold exceeded $500/oz, $600/oz and $700/oz. In May 2006, the price of gold once rose to $730.00 per ounce. In 2007, the price of gold futures rose by 3 1%, and in June 2007, it was 65438+February 3 1, and the fixed price in London reached 836.5 USD/oz, only one step away from the highest price 1.980.
The main reason why gold broke through the historical high price
Gold is a very special commodity with obvious financial attributes. The long-term price of gold is determined by the relationship between supply and demand in the international gold market; The short-term price of gold will be influenced by many economic and political factors, such as inflation rate, exchange rate of US dollar, world economic situation and international political situation. When inflationary pressure increases or the dollar depreciates; When the uncertainty of the world economy increases or the international situation is turbulent, the price of gold will rise. Therefore, some countries regard the change of gold price as the leading indicator of macro-economy.
Judging from the current situation, there are five main reasons for the sharp rise in gold prices: first, the depreciation of the US dollar in the deepening subprime mortgage crisis; Second, the worldwide inflationary pressure caused by the sharp rise in oil prices; Third, the change of supply and demand in the international gold market; Fourth, the uncertainty of the world economy; Fifth, geopolitical instability.
The depreciation of the dollar is the most important factor driving the sharp rise in gold prices. In the international market, gold transactions are denominated in US dollars, and the sharp depreciation of the US dollar has directly promoted the sharp rise of international gold prices. In recent years, due to the huge deficit in the current account of the United States, the exchange rate of the US dollar has been weakening. In the past seven years, the dollar has depreciated by more than 40% against the euro. In the past three years, the weighted exchange rate of the US dollar against major currencies has fallen by about 35%, and the current US dollar index has fallen below 76.00.
Inflation is another important factor pushing up the price of gold. In recent years, international oil prices and food prices have continued to rise. On October 3rd, 2008/kloc-0, the price of crude oil futures also broke through the historical high of 100 USD/barrel. Rising oil and food prices push up wages, which may turn into full-scale and global inflation. In other words, the rise in oil and food prices is only the first round effect of inflation, and the second round effect of inflation plays a decisive role, that is, workers demand higher wages because of rising prices. German workers' wages rose the most since 13, while the inflation rate in the euro zone reached 3. 1%, a six-year high. According to the latest economic data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, the consumer price index in Japan has also seen the biggest increase since 1998 due to the rise in oil prices. In addition, the high inflation rate will further stimulate inflation expectations, leading to a spiral rise in wages and prices.
The change of supply and demand in the gold market is the deep reason for raising the price of gold. India is the largest gold consumer in the world. In recent years, India's economic growth has been accelerating, further increasing the demand of Indian residents for gold. South Africa is the largest gold producer in the world. South Africa's gold supply has been declining for a long time and has now fallen to the lowest level in 25 years.
The uncertainty of the world economy makes more investors choose gold. Recently, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for the US economy in 2008 again. In fact, due to the huge concealment of the subprime mortgage crisis, "the extent to which it will affect the real economy of the United States is still uncertain." Whether the American economy will experience a deep recession is as uncertain as whether the inflation in the United States will recover due to the rise in oil prices. What is certain now is that we are facing a more uncertain world. With the increasing uncertainty of the world economy, the hedging characteristics of gold have become the main reason to attract investors.
The instability of world geopolitics intensifies the price fluctuation of gold market. At present, the political environment of Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and other oil-producing countries is still unclear, and unstable factors are increasing. On February 27th, 2007, 65438, Bhutto, the former prime minister of Pakistan and leader of the People's Party, was killed, which made the situation in the Middle East more tense and the world geopolitics more turbulent.
2008: Possible Turn of International Gold Price
The change direction of the future gold market price mainly depends on the trend of the US dollar exchange rate, which is closely related to the US economic growth and the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
There is uncertainty in American economic growth. In the short term, there are two possibilities for the US economy: one is to resume export-driven growth; Second, it was further slowed down by the subprime mortgage crisis. With the depreciation of the US dollar, US exports grew rapidly in 2007, and the export in the first three quarters increased by 1 1% year-on-year, which became an important force driving economic growth. In the third quarter of 2007, the GDP of the United States increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the contribution of net exports was 1.37 percentage points, second only to the contribution of household consumption (1.88). Export growth has also reduced the trade deficit. In the first three quarters of 2007, the trade deficit of the United States decreased by 9.7%, and the proportion of current account deficit in GDP decreased from 6.2% in 2006 to 5.5%. However, due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, there is still the possibility of recession in the US economy. The International Monetary Fund lowered the economic growth forecast of the United States from 2.8% to 1.9% in 2008, which is lower than the 2. 1% of the euro zone economy and 4.8% of the world economy (see attached table).
The Fed may continue to loosen monetary policy and further lower the interest rate of the US dollar. In order to cope with the subprime mortgage crisis and prevent economic recession, the Federal Reserve has lowered the US dollar interest rate from 5.25% to 4.5% on September 8, 2007 and October 30, 2007, respectively. The minutes of the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee show that in order to prevent the turmoil in the credit and real estate markets from affecting consumer spending, the Federal Reserve may further reduce the US dollar interest rate.
Other major central banks may continue to tighten, keep interest rates unchanged or raise interest rates. Due to the synchronization of economic cycles in major western countries, after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to adjust interest rates in the past, other major countries will respond quickly and announce that their monetary policies will also be adjusted in the same direction. However, after the Fed cut interest rates continuously, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all indicated that they would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. At present, the benchmark interest rates of euro, pound and yen are 4%, 5.75% and 0.5% respectively.
In this regard, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that inflation in the euro zone 13 countries is facing the risk of rising, and economic growth is facing the risk of falling, which is the main reason why the European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged. Because the current price increase in the euro zone lasts longer and harder than expected, it may trigger workers' demands for higher wages and a new round of salary increase. In order to prevent the rise in oil and food prices from turning into full-scale inflation, the European Central Bank must take measures. As a result, the market believes that under the pressure of inflation, the European Central Bank may take the opposite action to the Federal Reserve, that is, raise the euro interest rate. The Bank of Japan also said that rising oil prices will bring inflationary pressure, which may squeeze the profit margins of small and medium-sized enterprises, thus curbing consumption. Therefore, before 2009, the Bank of Japan hopes to keep the current interest rate unchanged.
In the short term, the dollar may continue to depreciate and the price of gold will keep rising. The above analysis shows that there is great uncertainty in the current economic growth in the United States; The Federal Reserve may further reduce the interest rate of the US dollar; The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan may keep the current interest rate unchanged or raise interest rates, and the US dollar may continue to depreciate in the short term due to the spread. There is a very obvious negative correlation between gold price and US dollar exchange rate. Judging from this, the international gold price will continue to rise in the short term.
Why is the international market reacting calmly?
On June 38, 2008 +20081October 3, after the gold price in the international market broke through the historical high, the international market, including the international commodity market and the international financial market, reacted calmly and there was no major chain reaction. The main reasons may be as follows:
First, due to the continued sharp depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen in 2007, although the international gold price denominated in US dollars has hit record highs, the gold price calculated in non-US dollars may not be too high. For example, in 2007, the London fixing price rose by 17.89% in euros (closing at 568.66 euros/ounce), while the price of gold in dollars rose by 3 1%.
Second, there are great uncertainties in international economy and international politics at present, and the upward trend of international gold price has long been the expectation of relatively stable market. Moreover, some analysts show that the highest price of 1980 is $850/oz, which is $2079/oz after adjustment of inflation rate. From this perspective, the price of $ 65438+859.30 per ounce on October 2nd, 2008/KLOC-0 is still within the acceptable range.
Third,1October 28th, 1980, the gold price turned down after breaking through the historical high at that time. On October 3, 2008, the international gold price began to adjust downwards after reaching an all-time high, and some investors may have chosen the profit-taking operation.
On the whole, due to the depreciation of the US dollar, the increasing inflationary pressure in the world, the changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the gold market, the uncertainty of the world economy, geopolitical instability and other basic factors still exist, the continuous upward trend of the international gold market will not change in the short term.
References:/Board of Directors/Wenwen Foreign Exchange.