Today's list of industries with large investment shows that the ranking of forest products industry has been rising in the past month and jumped to the top last week. Due to the increasingly tight international supply, domestic demand is still growing steadily. The deterioration of the relationship between supply and demand will lead to the continuous rise of wood prices and the further improvement of the value of forestry assets.
Shen Yinyao Zhao Jinhou Zhou Haichen
1, timber prices continue to rise.
According to the information of China Forestry Industry Association, since 200 1, China's timber prices have been rising continuously. Taking the price of softwood logs as an example, the current price is 17% higher than that of June 0 10, which is nearly 10% higher than that of early 2004.
The reason can be explained from both demand and supply:
Demand: The demand for wood in China market is increasing day by day. 1995-2004 During the ten years, the consumption of forest products (domestic consumption of forest products and export of Jialin products) in China increased by 70%, of which the domestic consumption of forest products increased by 59.67 million cubic meters, accounting for 55% of the global wood supply growth (global wood supply increased by/kloc-0.08 million cubic meters in the same period). In other words, for every two trees cut down in the world, there is one tree to meet the growth of forest products consumption in China. China has become the second largest consumer of forest products in the world after the United States, and its huge demand for wood has become the main reason for the continuous increase in wood prices.
Supply: 1998, China started the "Natural Forest Protection Project", which strictly restricted the logging of domestic forests, resulting in a significant reduction in domestic timber production. Forest products processing enterprises eager for raw materials rely on preferential policies such as "zero tariff" on log import to seek wood overseas, which makes China gradually integrate into the global forest products trade. During the ten years from 1995 to 2004, the import of forest products in China increased by 4.5 times, and the proportion of imported logs in domestic wood consumption exceeded12 (in 1995, only 2 1% of the wood needed for domestic forest products consumption came from imports, and by 2004, Therefore, foreign timber supply is increasingly affecting timber prices in China.
According to customs data, in 2005, China imported 29.368 million cubic meters of logs, up11.6% year-on-year; The average import price was11USD/m3, up 3.5% year-on-year, the third consecutive year since 2002.
In recent years, wood supply from abroad also faces many unfavorable factors:
First of all, the main suppliers of forest products in China are facing the pressure of sustainable development. Russia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and other countries are the main suppliers of forest products in China, and their log exports are mostly unrestricted. However, due to the consideration of protecting domestic resources and the pressure of environmental protection, some countries' forestry policies have changed, and their sustainable development strategies have taken measures to control and limit logging, which has increased the uncertainty of log supply. Take Russia as an example. In March 2006, the Russian government issued an order to increase the export tariff on logs and unprocessed sawn timber from 6.5% to 6.5% and not less than 2.5 euros/cubic meter and not less than 4 euros/cubic meter. By July 2007, it will increase to 65,438+00%, and it will not be less than 6 euros/cubic meter. The increase of tariff will directly lead to the increase of Russian timber export price.
Secondly, the Indian Ocean tsunami caused a shortage of timber supply in the timber market in Southeast Asia. Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia and other countries have always been important suppliers of timber imported from China. Most of these countries were victims of the tsunami, and their houses were seriously damaged, which affected their economies to a certain extent. Its post-disaster reconstruction needs a lot of wood, which affects the export volume of wood. At the same time, the tsunami also caused damage to the port and stagnation of maritime transportation, resulting in tight transportation capacity, rising freight rates and shortage of raw materials such as plates. In addition, the reconstruction of the disaster-stricken countries needs a lot of labor, which also causes an increase in labor costs. Therefore, the Indian Ocean tsunami had a great impact on the price of timber imported from China.
Third, logging and transportation costs have greatly increased. The continuous rise in crude oil prices will undoubtedly increase the cost of timber harvesting and transportation. For example, the freight of American timber and New Zealand timber has more than tripled in half a year, which indirectly caused the increase of timber prices.
Fourth, the state has intensified its efforts to investigate and deal with illegal timber trade. In the past, some illegally harvested timber was smuggled into China after obtaining forged documents. For example, according to a survey released by Greenpeace, because Indonesian logs are not allowed to be exported, traders in that country forged certificates of origin, allowing stolen logs to pass through Malaysia and then enter the customs in China. In response, China Forestry Bureau intensified its crackdown on illegal timber trade, which indirectly affected the timber supply in China.
In addition, according to the analysis and prediction of the international supply and demand of forest resources and forest products by FAO, ECE, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Britain and other countries, the world log market will grow at a low speed in the future (20 10 years ago), which also makes the market expect the timber price to rise.
2. The value of forest resources is increasingly prominent.
2. 1 China's forest resources are not rich.
The sixth national forest resources inventory (1999-2003) shows that China's forest area is 65,438+75 million hectares, forest stock124.56 million cubic meters, and forest coverage 182 1%. The planting area is 54 million hectares, ranking first in the world.
The absolute value of forest resources in China is considerable, but the total amount is seriously insufficient. Although the absolute value of forests in China is considerable (forest area accounts for 4.52% of the world, ranking fifth; The forest stock accounts for 3.22% of the world, ranking sixth), but compared with the needs of China's vast territory and large population, the sustainable development of the national economy and people's production and life, and the need to maintain the ecological environment, the total amount of forest resources in China is seriously insufficient. China ranks 134, 122 and 130 respectively in the world. In other words, using less than 5% of the world's forest resources not only meets the production and living needs of 22% of the world's population, but also meets the needs of maintaining 7% of the world's terrestrial ecological environment. Therefore, China is one of the countries with relatively poor forest resources and a serious shortage of total forest resources in the world.
2.2 The three major industries drive the sustained growth of forest consumption.
Driven by the sustained high-speed growth of the national economy, the consumption of industrial forest products in China increased by 50% in the past 10 years, reaching 654.38+74 million cubic meters RWE in 2004, making it the second largest consumer of forest products in the world after the United States. According to the data of State Forestry Administration, the construction industry, pulp and paper industry and furniture industry are the main consumers of industrial wood in China. In 2004, these three industries consumed 95% of domestic industrial timber.
Wood consumption in construction industry: Building and decoration need to consume a lot of wood products such as wood-based panels, wood floors, building templates and decorative boards. In recent years, the rapid growth of the construction industry has greatly stimulated the demand for wood. According to the Forestry Development Report of China in 2005 issued by the State Forestry Administration, in 2004, the construction industry consumed nearly half of the domestic industrial timber. Taking wood-based panels as an example, the output of wood-based panels in China increased from 2.446 million cubic meters in 1990 to 544.65 million cubic meters in 2004, with an average annual growth of 3 1.2% during the five-year period.
Wood consumption in furniture industry: Due to the continuous warming of real estate industry, the growth of residents' consumption power and the rapid growth of furniture export market, the furniture industry in China has grown at an average annual rate of 15% in recent 20 years. By 2004, the total output of furniture in China reached 273 billion yuan, making it the fourth largest furniture producer in the world. On the export side, the furniture export of China increased from $65.438+97 billion in197 to $65.438+29.7 million in 2005, with an average annual growth rate of 30.4% in ten years. At present, China has become the second largest furniture exporter in the world after Italy.
Figure 4: 1990-2005 The average annual growth rate of wood-based panel production in China is 3 1% Figure 5: 1996-2005 The average annual growth rate of furniture export in China is 30.4%.
Wood consumption in papermaking industry: on the one hand, the total output of papermaking products has increased year after year. During 1990-2004, the output of machine-made paper and paperboard in China increased from13.72 million tons to 49.5 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 9.9% during 15 years. Nevertheless, by 2004, the per capita consumption of paper and paperboard in China was only 42kg, which was only 1/8(3 12kg) in the United States. According to FAO's estimation, if China's per capita paper consumption reaches the average level of the United States, it will need to consume an additional 65.438+0.6 billion cubic meters of wood, equivalent to the world's annual timber output!
On the other hand, from the perspective of the structure of papermaking fiber raw materials, the proportion of wood pulp in China's papermaking raw materials is also increasing year by year, but there is still a significant gap compared with developed countries in the world (the proportion of wood pulp in developed countries is as high as 62.6%, while that in China is only 22%). With the increasing proportion of wood pulp, the demand for wood will continue to grow.
Figure 6: 1990-2005 The average annual growth rate of China's machine-made paper and paperboard output is 9.9% Figure 7: The proportion of wood pulp in China's paper fiber raw material structure is increasing year by year.
2.3 Re-evaluation of forest resources under the new accounting standards
In February 2006, the Ministry of Finance issued a new version of Accounting Standards for Enterprises, which will be formally implemented from June to 10 in 2007.
A. The concept of biological assets has been clarified
Biological assets refer to living animals and plants. Biological assets are divided into consumable biological assets, productive biological assets and public welfare biological assets: ① Consumable biological assets refer to biological assets held for sale or harvested as agricultural products in the future. Young and fattening animals of agricultural companies, fast-growing forests and medicinal materials of biomedical companies all belong to this category. (2) Productive biological assets refer to biological assets held for producing agricultural products, providing services or leasing. Economic forests, livestock production and farm animals of agricultural companies all belong to this category. (3) Public welfare biological assets refer to biological assets whose main purpose is protection and environmental protection. Shelterbelts and public welfare forests of agricultural and light industrial companies fall into this category.
B. Biological assets will be listed separately as asset items.
In April 2004, the Ministry of Finance promulgated the Accounting System for Agricultural Enterprises. In the supplementary provisions of this enterprise accounting system, biological assets are also divided to a certain extent, including productive biological assets, consumable biological assets and public welfare forests. However, these three types of biological assets are not listed separately in the balance sheet. Consumable biological assets (fast-growing forests, young animals and fattening animals, etc.). ) as inventory accounting, and productive biological assets (economic forest, etc. ) and public welfare forest as fixed assets accounting. According to the new accounting standards, since 2007, companies with biological assets will list the assets such as consumable biological assets, productive biological assets and public welfare biological assets in their balance sheets.
C. introducing the concept of fair value
The new Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises-Biological Assets clearly points out that if there is conclusive evidence that the fair value of biological assets can be obtained continuously and reliably, the fair value of biological assets should be measured. Fair value measurement should meet the following conditions at the same time: ① There is an active trading market for biological assets. ② The market price and other relevant information of similar or similar biological assets can be obtained from the trading market, so as to make a reasonable estimate of the fair value of biological assets.
For forestry companies, we take fast-growing forests as an example. Suppose that the forestry company began to measure the fast-growing forest assets at fair value from June 5438+ 10, 2007, and the difference between the fair value of the assets and the book value originally measured at historical cost is included in the current capital reserve, which is equivalent to the increase of net assets. Assuming that the timber market price rises at the end of 2007, the change of fair value is directly included in the current profit and loss, which is equivalent to the increase of net profit.
3. Pay attention to the investment value of forestry sector
We believe that forestry resources are facing a re-evaluation. On the one hand, timber prices continue to rise; On the other hand, the new accounting standards will be implemented soon, and it is possible to measure forestry assets with fair value.
We advise investors to pay attention to listed companies with rich forestry resources. We selected four companies, Jilin Forest Industry (600 189), Jinggu Forestry (600265), Yueyang Paper (600963) and Yongan Forestry (000663), and suggested that investors pay special attention to them.