The rise of global food prices has become a commonplace topic.
In fact, the rise in food prices is not a recent thing. Since the global epidemic broke out in 2020, the global food price index, as the most important indicator of food prices, has soared and hit record highs.
From 2020 to March 2022, the global food price index rose by more than 65%, reaching 170. 1, the highest level on record.
In our traditional impression, the price of a product has risen sharply, which must be caused by the shortage of supply. For example, does the sharp rise in food prices also mean that the world is "short of food"?
However, this is not the case.
Careful analysis reveals that there are deeper reasons behind the rise in food prices.
First, is there a food shortage?
At present, the biggest factor affecting the grain market is the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, both of which are major grain producers and exporters. Wheat exports of the two countries account for 29% of the world, corn accounts for 19%, barley exports account for nearly 30%, and sunflower oil accounts for more than 70%. Therefore, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the global grain market fluctuated greatly.
On the other hand, in addition to Russia and Ukraine, other major grain-producing countries are also affected by the weather and are expected to reduce production.
For example, due to the dry weather in the United States, winter wheat is weak, while soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay in South America has also been lowered. Recently, India has suffered from the once-in-a-century high temperature weather, and the grain output such as wheat is also worrying.
"Food shortage" seems to be a foregone conclusion.
But in terms of total grain output, the global grain output has increased year after year in recent years, for example, from 20 18 to 202 1 year (inter-annual statistics, that is, 20 18-20 19, 20 19 -2020).
This means that the global per capita disposable grain is about 7 10 Jin, which is obviously not low.
Therefore, in terms of the total amount, there is no obvious shortage of global food.
So, what is driving the soaring food prices?
Second, the change of supply and demand pattern.
The first factor leading to the soaring food price is the change of global food supply and demand pattern.
This change not only includes the mismatch between supply and demand in the global market since the global epidemic broke out in 2020, but also includes the changes in the pattern of grain import and export caused by the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has fundamentally changed the global grain trade.
On the one hand, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the impact of a series of sanctions, the grain exports of the two countries were blocked, which caused great trouble to countries that were deeply dependent on the grain exports of the two countries.
For example, Egypt has a population as high as/kloc-0.05 billion, and has always relied on wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine. However, since the conflict broke out, Egypt had to start looking for other ways to import wheat, and at the same time, the price of wheat soared.
Syria, Lebanon and other countries are also facing this problem.
Especially after the explosion of Lebanon's largest port in 2020, the granaries were also destroyed, so the grain reserves were more limited.
Coupled with the imbalance of global grain production and distribution, grain producing countries are highly concentrated, while consumption importing countries are relatively dispersed, which makes the regional contradiction between grain supply and demand more prominent.
In this case, when the grain producing countries change, it is easy to affect the regional grain supply, and the imbalance between regional supply and demand will become prominent.
As a result, these countries have to find ways to store more food, and this sentiment is transmitted to the food market, which makes food protectionism begin to rise and boosts food prices.
In turn, rising food prices have intensified the financial pressure on importing countries, which means they have to spend more money on food.
Third, the relationship between energy and food prices.
Food and energy are closely related.
As we all know, coal and natural gas are the main raw materials for producing fertilizers. At present, the price of chemical fertilizer has risen sharply, on the one hand, because Russia, as a big producer of chemical fertilizer, has had a considerable impact on the market after its export restrictions, on the other hand, because the high prices of coal and natural gas directly raise the production cost of chemical fertilizer, which makes the price of chemical fertilizer rise again and again.
And fertilizer is "whole grains", and the increase in fertilizer prices will inevitably push up food prices.
Secondly, whether it is sowing, harvesting or transporting food, it is inseparable from oil.
Large-scale agricultural machinery and equipment are needed for grain sowing and harvesting. Without fuel, it can't run, and grain import and export transportation can't be separated from freight transportation. Therefore, with the rise of oil prices, these costs will also increase, which will eventually be reflected in food prices.
Thirdly, as we said before, when the price of oil is significantly higher than the price of food, a large amount of food will be "burned".
China has strict control over the production of biofuels from grain, and has always maintained the principle of "not competing with people for grain and not competing with grain for land", but biofuels are very popular and developing rapidly in the world.
For example, there are hundreds of biofuel ethanol plants in the United States, one of which is related to increasing agricultural output and farmers' income, and the other is related to clean emissions from transportation. Therefore, in recent years, about 40% of corn in the United States will be processed into ethanol and then "burned" during transportation.
Fourth, look at the "day" when eating.
Agriculture is an industry that depends on the weather. It was, and it is.
Even with the rapid development of science and technology in modern society, the influence of weather change on agriculture, especially food crops, is still great.
For example, the locust plague caused by the drought in 20 19-2020 severely damaged the grain production in East Africa, West Asia and South Asia, in which more than one million hectares of land in East Africa were attacked by locusts, and some crops in Pakistan, India and other countries were damaged.
At the beginning of last year, Brazil suffered the worst drought in a decade, resulting in a large number of crops not being harvested.
In western Europe, heavy rains caused disasters, and the harvest of crops such as barley and wheat matured in summer was affected.
However, this year, the threat of weather continues.
Professional warnings say that with the acceleration of climate change, these extreme weather will become more frequent and severe, which also means or will further push up food prices.
Of course, in addition to these, there is also capital speculation.
When the grain market fluctuates, capital will smell it first, and then quickly enter, disrupting the market.
From this point of view, the real "crisis" in the grain market is far from over. Under the interaction and superposition of these factors, food prices have risen.
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