Now Omicron is threatening, and the number of new infections in many western countries has reached a record high. It seems that the epidemic is getting worse and worse. Since the first big epidemic was contained, the epidemic caused by Omicron should be the fastest spreading. The extent to which the epidemic will develop is still unknown.
According to some epidemiologists, large-scale epidemics in history last only two or three years, at least a few months. This can refer to SARS and Ebola in recent years. After all, the epidemic in COVID-19 is different from the general flu. This kind of novel coronavirus is likely to suddenly appear and disappear.
So far, the epidemic has lasted for two years, and if it is next year, it will be three years, which has reached the upper limit of the general duration of the epidemic. According to the general epidemiological law, this epidemic should also come to an end. Whether the epidemic situation in COVID-19 can break through this universal law is still inconclusive. We will wait and see, which is one of them.
Second, although Omicron has created new case records in many countries, most of the newly infected people are unvaccinated people. After several mutations of the virus, the effectiveness of the vaccine has indeed decreased a lot. But on the whole, it is still effective. This round of epidemic will lead to a sharp decrease in the number of people who refuse to vaccinate. After all, no one wants to make fun of his life.
With the increasing coverage of vaccines, objectively speaking, the range of people left for virus transmission will become narrower and narrower, and the number of newly infected people in various countries will inevitably decrease after reaching a peak. The reason is simple, there are not so many susceptible people. Coupled with interviewing specific drugs in COVID-19, the number of critically ill patients infected with the virus will also decrease sharply.
Speaking of it, the epidemic can last for so long, which has a lot to do with the laissez-faire attitude of European and American countries. A large part of the recent epidemic rebound in China is also caused by imported cases. If western countries take such prevention and control measures as China, I believe the end of the epidemic will definitely be ahead of schedule. If you want to ask which countries will end the epidemic first? Our country is definitely among them.
Third, Omicron pushed the number of new cases in various countries to a new high, but it is puzzling that the response of western countries in the hardest hit areas was somewhat too calm. From the government to the ordinary people, it seems that the mutant virus Omicron is not so cold at once.
A very important reason is that the infectivity of Omicron virus has indeed increased, but the serious illness and mortality caused by it have also decreased significantly. After many mutations in COVID-19, its toxicity has indeed decreased, which is a good sign. To measure the harmfulness of a virus, the fatality rate is the most important index.
Many plagues in human history can finally end, not because we humans have eliminated the virus, but because the virus "killed itself." Especially in ancient times when medical technology was quite underdeveloped, there was no ability to develop vaccines and specific drugs, and even epidemic prevention measures were not in place. But many great plagues that killed thousands of people disappeared by themselves, which is a good example.
If so, it is certainly not far from the end of the epidemic. Coupled with the unanimous prediction of many medical experts, next spring may really usher in victory.