First, it may trigger a global recession. After the outbreak, although countries have taken measures to deal with the spread of the epidemic, including entry and exit control, travel ban, cancellation of large-scale activities, suspension of production and other measures, it is still possible to evolve into a "large-scale epidemic." The normal global production and trade activities have been seriously affected, which has increased the downward pressure on the global economy and even triggered a recession.

Second, the global market fluctuated. The accelerated spread of the global epidemic caused panic, and the world's major stock indexes fell. In the past week, the European Stoxx 50 Index, the London Financial Times Stock Index, the Paris CAC40 Index and the Frankfurt DAX Index all plunged by about 1 1% ~ 12%. The US Dow Jones index plunged 14% from its recent high, and the US stock panic index (VIX) doubled in a week. Although the impact of the epidemic on the stock market is short-lived, if the epidemic continues to spread, global stock markets will be further frustrated.

Third, impact the global industrial chain and supply chain. In the global production and trade network, the shutdown, reduction of production and delay of returning to work caused by epidemic prevention and control will increase the risk of global supply chain. As the factory of the world, China is the hub of the global manufacturing supply chain. In 20 19, China's manufacturing industry accounted for about 30.9% of the global manufacturing output. In February 2020, China's PMI dropped sharply.

Fourth, anti-globalization and protectionism are rampant. With the rise of anti-globalization and protectionism in developed countries, politicians in some western countries manipulate public opinion from the narrow interests of political parties and individuals, and some countries have discrimination based on race, nationality and country.

5. The epidemic continues to spread around the world. If the epidemic situation in developed countries and regions such as the United States and Europe is not well controlled, the global economy may be hit hard, and its severity may exceed the global financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent European debt crisis, international trade may decline, and the global industrial division of labor system may be destroyed.