China is the largest pork consumer in the world, but with the improvement of people's living standards, the number and consumption of beef are also increasing gradually, and the overall consumption shows a steady growth trend. However, due to the long period and high cost of raising cattle, the supply of beef in China is still in a tight state.

According to the data of global beef consumption in 20 14 released by USDA, the per capita beef consumption in China is 5.2kg, which is 3.4kg lower than the average level of 8.6kg in other countries.

When it reaches the world average level, the beef consumption in China will exceed 1 1 10,000 tons, and the beef consumption will reach more than 700 billion yuan, which is nearly 40% higher than now, and the demand growth potential is huge.

From the perspective of beef consumption in various countries, with the increase of per capita income and the upgrading of meat consumption structure, the consumption of developing countries such as Brazil, China, Indian and Pakistani has gradually increased, accounting for 1 1%, 9.4%, 2.3% and 1.6% of the global total consumption, respectively, to 20/kloc-.

However, in recent years, the annual decline of basic dairy cows in China is between 15%-20%, and even close to 60% in some places. The national beef production has dropped from more than 7 million tons in 20 10 to more than 6 million tons, and the number of beef cattle has decreased in four years 10. The benefit of farming has declined. In 20 15 years, a 450kg beef cattle can earn about 1553 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 334 yuan.

The shortage of beef cattle and the increasing consumer demand have led to the shortage of domestic beef supply and high price, which has promoted the increase of imported beef.

According to data from USDA, China imported 348,000 tons of beef from June to July in 2065,438+06, up 565,438+0% year-on-year. It is estimated that China's beef imports will increase by 24% this year, reaching 825,000 tons, which is twice that of 20 13. In 20 16, the annual beef consumption in China is estimated to be 7.59 million tons, and the domestic output will be 6.79 million tons.

Historical data show that the fluctuation of beef price is small, and there is no big fluctuation, showing the characteristics of big upward fluctuation and small downward fluctuation. For a long time, the pattern of stable demand and tight supply of beef has led to the fluctuation characteristics of beef prices. However, since 20 15, the price of beef and mutton in China has not continued to rise sharply as in previous years, but has fallen instead of rising.

According to the survey, at present, the retail price of fresh beef in China is around 30 yuan/Jin, but the smuggled beef is only a dozen yuan. If this cheap beef hits the domestic market for a long time, it will affect the domestic beef industry.

On the one hand, the demand of domestic residents for beef is on the rise, on the other hand, the long production cycle and low comparative benefit of beef have hit the enthusiasm of raising cattle.

China is the third largest beef producer in the world. In terms of breeds, there are few specialized beef cattle breeds, and most of the beef cattle raised are local yellow cattle breeds. Beef cattle breeding is mainly concentrated in agricultural areas, where beef cattle slaughter accounts for more than 80% of the country, mainly concentrated in Henan, Shandong, Hebei and other places; Beef cattle breeding in pastoral areas is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Gansu.

At present, beef cattle production in China is divided into three types: traditional free-range farming, specialized household farming and large-scale farm farming. This year, small retail beef cattle farmers are in the stage of delisting, recovery and wait-and-see. Although large-scale breeding enterprises have the layout of expanding production, they need a cycle. In addition, environmental protection is becoming more and more strict, which leads to the restriction and prohibition of feeding in most major breeding areas, and this process is nationwide, and the re-layout of the areas hinders the recovery of the original cattle stock.

It is worth noting that at present, with the strong injection of social capital in China's beef cattle industry and the intensification of overseas mergers and acquisitions, various beef cattle industry models with the characteristics of the times have emerged, such as "Internet plus beef cattle breeding". In order to cope with the escalating challenges and pressures, domestic cattle enterprises are increasingly aware of innovative ideas, strengthen brand effects and enhance their core competitiveness.

Therefore, the price of beef will not drop sharply, and the overall beef market will remain at a high level in the future, mainly with a steady and small increase, with limited room for growth.

Second, the future development trend of beef cattle

1) scale aquaculture development is the trend.

Implement standardized large-scale beef cattle farm construction and other projects, support the standardized transformation of large-scale farm infrastructure, and improve the comprehensive production capacity of beef cattle. Focusing on forage processing, large-scale feeding and waste treatment, we will develop and promote supporting equipment for cattle and sheep facility breeding, improve labor productivity and increase breeding efficiency.

2) The prospect of high-end products is promising.

With the influence of domestic consumption upgrading, people pay more attention to product quality and taste. China has huge beef consumption potential, and high-end beef is supported by market demand and purchasing power, especially in first-and second-tier cities with high per capita disposable income.

Attachment: How should novice breeders correctly choose beef cattle breeding?

Many beginners spend money on pens for raising beef cattle. Try your best to standardize and modernize the cowshed. Even for the convenience of management in the future, the cowshed was built semi-automatically. This is not a good thing for friends who are beginners in raising beef cattle. Why?

Our country's cultivated land itself is tense, in order to protect returning farmland to forests, to protect the environment, and to effectively cultivate land. Captivity is actually a compulsory policy of the state. Whether it is beef cattle, meat, mutton, donkeys and other domestic animals, their nature belongs to free-range animals. It is useless for us to build gorgeous barns, but we can only forcibly change their living habits, and we have surrounded them, just for our own peace of mind and convenience, and imposed more pain on them. If the technology is not in place, we advise you not to spend money indiscriminately.

Another point is that you should study and explore step by step and master the core technology. You have automated the cowshed. How do you find problems and solve them in the process of feeding? Only people who have accumulated rich skills in raising beef cattle all the year round will do so. Therefore, it is the right first step to accumulate experience in a down-to-earth manner. It is good to keep the barn simple. Save money, buy more cattle and more car materials, which is more affordable.