1in June, 1992, the Russian parliament passed the privatization plan of securities, which stipulated that most of the shares of enterprises should be sold to employees and managers of enterprises, and a small part should be sold to external investors. The privatization of Russian enterprises evaluates the state-owned assets accumulated by the former Soviet Union in 74 years, and transfers them to every citizen free of charge according to the population of 65.438+0.49 billion, with 654.38+0.00000 rubles per person. With a nominal payment of 25 rubles per person, you can get a privatization voucher with a face value of 1000 rubles, which can be used to buy shares or houses of enterprises or entrusted to investment funds. Coupons are anonymous, non-loss-reporting, transferable and cashed. This is equivalent to valuing all state property at about10.5 trillion rubles and distributing it to the people of the whole country, and such payment is basically "free". It seems that the people of the former Soviet Union did benefit, but what was the result?
An analysis of inflation in Russia's past consumption field and deflation in property right transaction field with Fisher formula
According to the materials released by the Russian Duma hearing, from 1992 to 1996, due to hyperinflation, the economic losses caused by privatization exceeded 9,500 trillion rubles at the price of 1995, equivalent to 2.5 times the losses during the Great Patriotic War. After such privatization, 8 1% of people's deposits disappeared. How did the "privatization" given to nationals free of charge become the result of national bankruptcy and plunder by international predators? What is the economic principle of this?
Here we can introduce the famous Fisher formula MV=PT (see noun explanation) in western currency price theory to illustrate. With the original monetary environment unchanged, the increase of commodity quantity is inversely proportional to the decrease of price.
Because in the era of planned economy, the amount of money and the speed of money circulation in property rights transactions are very low, and the result of the increase in the number of goods is a sharp drop in prices. As a result of seemingly fair privatization, ordinary people can only sell their bonds cheaply in exchange for cash to improve their lives. At that time, due to the extreme shortage of cash in specific property rights transactions, its selling price was extremely low. The low price caused panic and further selling. Russian people have sold off privatized securities, while business operators, rich people and foreign investors have taken the opportunity to buy in large quantities at low prices. Privatized securities are concentrated in these people's hands at an extremely fast speed, so that 90% minority shareholders hold less than 10%, while 1% majority shareholders hold more than 85%, which greatly aggravates the polarization between the rich and the poor.
According to the figures provided by V. Lisichkin, a member of the privatization result analysis committee of the Russian State Duma, the average selling price of125,000 state-owned enterprises sold in Russia is only 1300 US dollars, which is a world record for its low price. The actual value of 500 large state-owned enterprises in Russia exceeds 1 trillion dollars, but they only sold 7.2 billion dollars. 1996 alone, the losses caused by privatization of state-owned enterprises are more than those caused by Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union.
After privatization in Russia, the inflation rate was 65,438+0, and reached 25,065,438+0% in 1992. The serious inflation that has lasted for many years has not only caused chaos in economic life, but also brought unprecedented disasters to the general public. 1992, Russia carried out "shock therapy" in an all-round way, resulting in economic paralysis, soaring prices, devaluation of the ruble, loss of residents' savings of 460 billion rubles, price increase of 5 1 times, and nominal wage increase of only1times. The price index has increased sharply year by year-1991year, 168%, 1992, 2508.8%, 1993, 844%, 1994. Inflation declined slightly in the following years, but it was still at a high level,165438+2 1.8%, 1997, 1 1%,1998,800. At this point, 8 1% residents' hard-earned savings for many years have all been looted.
After Russia's privatization, why will it lead to the inevitable hyperinflation? The answer can also be solved by Fisher formula. According to MV=PT, we can see that although ordinary people sell their bonds and property rights at low prices, the cash they get is still extremely huge. This situation is equivalent to injecting a lot of money M into the society, but it is difficult for ordinary people to buy goods T quickly. Especially in the planned economy of the Soviet Union, everything was produced as planned, and the production capacity was not redundant, so there was no room to adapt to the rapid growth of demand. Therefore, under the condition of constant t, the increase of money m will inevitably lead to the skyrocketing price p.
With the sudden surge of commodity prices, people's desire to hold cash is greatly reduced, which leads to the increase of broad money M, such as time savings, which is not involved in circulation, further improving the money supply in the market. At the same time, the key factor that cannot be ignored is the substantial increase in the speed of currency circulation. Under the pressure of inflation, people had to snap up all the necessities of the month on the day of pay, which led to a 30-fold increase in the speed of money circulation. According to Fisher's formula, the price will rise 30 times, and the interaction of this result is a multiplicative relationship, which can easily lead to 100 times of currency hyperinflation.
Furthermore, under such inflation, in order to maintain government expenditure, the government's original income is seriously insufficient according to the currency before inflation, and as a result, it has to print money on a large scale again, leading to the positive feedback growth of hyperinflation.
After privatization, the Russian government was heavily in debt and the government could not make ends meet. By issuing bank notes and borrowing, the domestic debt balance is about 200 trillion rubles, the foreign debt balance is increased by about 60 billion dollars, and the government budget 1/3 is used to pay off debts. So the government was forced to loosen the money supply, and only in 1992, it issued 18 trillion rubles, 20 times the annual circulation of199/kloc-0. In the roar of the printing press, the fiscal and monetary tightening policy aborted, and the domino-like chain effect caused by it was as unstoppable as a landslide.
Because inflation occurs in the consumption field of ordinary people, and deflation caused by insufficient money supply in property rights transactions occurs in the capital field of property rights transactions, the profits between these two different fields make wealth change rapidly. Because people's consumption can be overdrawn, after the privatization plan was introduced, because people had improper income expectations, they used their previous savings for consumption in advance and privatized by buying bonds, which led to a huge depreciation. This was the case in Russia at that time.
In order to speed up the privatization process, the Russian government initially adopted the way of sending money. 1in June, 1992, the national assembly passed a plan, so that every Russian can obtain 10000 rubles of privatized securities, which can be used to buy stocks freely. But it was already 1992 10 months when privatization was officially started, and times have changed. At this time 10000 rubles is only enough to buy a pair of high-grade leather shoes. Such devaluation makes the state-owned enterprises sell more seriously at low prices, and foreign capital and upper-level dignitaries can control the enterprises, become the owners of assets in inflation, and gain greater benefits from inflation, thus completely turning the privatization process into a gluttonous feast for legally embezzling Russian state-owned assets. At the same time, people's actual living standards have generally fallen sharply, and polarization is very serious. By 1999, the unemployment rate was as high as 15.2%, accounting for 10% of the population, and their income accounted for 45% of the total income of all residents. The income of the richest is 48 times that of the poorest, and 58% of the residents live below the minimum living standard.
The privatization of a country has become a paradise for international scavengers.
At the same time, due to the outbreak of demand and inflation, as well as the imbalance of foreign exchange, the exchange rate plummeted, making Russia's privatized assets sold cheaply to foreign capital. At the same time, in the case of insufficient consumer goods, all kinds of funds will inevitably look for a substitute commodity, that is, foreign currency as a universal equivalent. When all kinds of funds flock to foreign exchange, it will cause a sharp outflow of national capital. At the same time, all kinds of funds in the world will come in to buy cheap assets, and the privatization of a country will become a paradise for international scavengers, which will trap Russia's balance of payments.
Since the reform, Russia has only introduced more than 40 billion US dollars of foreign capital, while the capital flight is about150 billion US dollars, and the national foreign exchange reserve is only 27 billion US dollars, which has led to a sharp depreciation of the ruble: the exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble is 654.38+09965.438+0: 59654.38+0992654.38+0. 1994 1: 2205, 1995 1: 4562, 1998 decreased to 1: 6000. 1998, currency reform. The exchange rate between the old ruble and the new ruble is 1: 1000, and the exchange rate between the new ruble and the US dollar is 6: 1. Now it has dropped to 28: 1 to 30: 1. At the same time, the country's international status collapsed, and trade liberalization gave the domestic market to foreign countries. According to 1997, foreign products account for 84% of the domestic market.
Why Russia embarked on such a road of privatization and plunder is also a process. 199 1 years ago, the Soviet union disintegrated, 1992, and Yeltsin was eager to launch the privatization system reform after he took office. At that time, 35-year-old Gaidar couldn't put it down, and made a radical reform plan according to the "shock therapy" of Harvard University professor Sachs. To this end, Yeltsin made an exception and promoted Gaidar as the prime minister of the government, and appointed Saks as the president's chief economic adviser. Under the design and auspices of these two men, the radical reform of "shock therapy" with the main content of liberalizing prices and large-scale rapid and complete privatization was launched in an all-round way.
After the above calculation, we can see that the harm of privatization to the national economy and the plunder of the country and people can be easily deduced through economic theory and economic model, but why can shock therapy make Russia fall for it in the past, regardless of the interests of the country and people? The reason is that this policy has achieved some success.
Privatization in big countries and small countries is different in nature.
Shock therapy was first implemented in Bolivia and achieved certain results. From 65438 to 0985, the budget deficit of the Bolivian government was as high as 485.9 trillion pesos, accounting for about 1/3 of the GDP, and the inflation rate was as high as 24000%. 1984 the foreign debt is $5 billion, and the interest payable is nearly $65,438 billion, which exceeds the export income. During the period from 1980 to 1985, the living standard of residents decreased by 30%.
In this case, Bolivia adopted shock therapy. Less than a week after the implementation of this therapy, hyperinflation was effectively contained and prices stabilized from the skyrocketing. 1986~ 1987, the inflation rate is only 10%~ 15%, 1988 210.5%, 1989. The national economy gradually picked up after a short recession. In the second year of shock therapy, namely 1986, GDP decreased by 2.9%, but it maintained a growth momentum of about 2.5% in the following years. At the same time, due to effective measures, the debt problem has also been significantly alleviated, and finally Bolivia has overcome the serious debt crisis. In addition, Poland, which also implements shock therapy, has also achieved great success, so the admiration for shock therapy has been widely recognized in the former Soviet socialist countries, but why can't it be replicated in Bolivia and Russia? Why is it difficult to attack jade from other mountains? Unlike Russia, Bolivia and Poland have experienced hyperinflation and currency flooding before shock therapy. Therefore, after privatization, the abundant currency in its national market can just be diluted by the increased large amount of assets entering property rights transactions.
In addition, the size of the country can not be mentioned in the same breath. Bolivia has a population of more than 9 million, with a land area of 6.5438+0.09 million square kilometers and a per capita income of about 654.38+0.000 US dollars. Poland has a population of 38 million and a land area of 3 1 000 square kilometers, which is only equivalent to a region or a city in Russia. In different countries, the effect and function of shock therapy are very different. For a country as big as Bolivia, according to Fisher formula MV=PT, the required quantity of goods T can be easily met by the international market. But for Russia with a population of 65.438+0.5 billion, it is far from it. Because the international market can't meet its huge commodity demand for a while, the result is inevitably internal inflation. However, a large number of resources exported by Russia and the property rights of privatized enterprises are difficult to digest quickly in the international market, which will inevitably lead to low-priced sales, and excellent countries will change hands at low prices. It must be noted here that the basic assumption of market economics "clearing the market" is difficult to realize. The basic requirement of free market economics is that the market can adjust quickly and the market can balance instantly, ignoring the influence of such adjustment speed. However, the speed difference between big countries and small countries is huge, especially in the drastic change of shock therapy, which leads to similar treatments and different world differences between big countries and small countries.
As Russia is the country with the largest land area in the world, commodity transportation has also become a big problem, resulting in a great imbalance between capital liquidity and commodity distribution. Russia, in particular, is the main successor of the former Soviet Union and implements a typical highly centralized planned economic system. State-owned enterprises occupy an absolute dominant position in the national economy, and state laws prohibit private ownership of enterprises. At the beginning of 1992, there were 250,000 state-owned enterprises in Russia, which were managed at different levels. Among them, enterprises affiliated to the Federation account for 17.5%, enterprises affiliated to various countries account for 27%, enterprises affiliated to border regions account for 8.4%, and enterprises affiliated to local parties account for 36.2%, that is, according to the number of enterprises. Due to the lack of market construction in Russia when implementing shock therapy, the liquidity is extremely unbalanced, which also makes inflation difficult to control, because there is an essential gap and imbalance between the funds used to buy property rights and privatized bonds and the cash used by ordinary people to buy daily necessities. Such an industrial structure is far from meeting the requirements of marketization. These disadvantages are relatively easy to be eliminated by the flow of the international market in Bolivia and even Poland, but for a big country like Russia, it is undoubtedly a "flying tree".
Why can shock therapy be successfully implemented in Russia? One of the reasons is that in the first step of shock therapy-the initial stage of price liberalization, it seems to have achieved good results. The Russian government stipulates that from? From 1992 to 1.2, liberalize 90% of the prices of consumer goods and 80% of the prices of means of production; At the same time, the restrictions on income growth have been lifted, the salaries of public officials have increased by 90%, the pensions of retirees have increased to 900 rubles per month, and family allowances and unemployment benefits have also increased.
In the first three months of price liberalization, the effect seems to be immediate-in the past, the long shopping queue disappeared and the goods on the shelves were dazzling. Russians who are used to supplying long queues by ticket seem to see the benefits of the reform. However, when the supply of goods began to be insufficient, people who sold privatized bonds had nowhere to spend after they got a lot of cash, and prices began to soar. Soaring prices triggered further panic. According to the second measure of shock therapy, the "double tight" policy of finance and currency was introduced simultaneously with the price reform. Fiscal austerity is mainly about increasing revenue and reducing expenditure. Cancel all tax incentives, impose 28% value-added tax on all goods, and impose consumption tax on imported goods. However, in the face of soaring prices and the just-needed needs of ordinary people, high taxes have been passed on to ordinary people, which has led to further pushing up prices. However, the lack of fiscal revenue is bound to fall into a vicious circle of printing money, and shock therapy has brought great disaster to Russia. In addition to the above-mentioned people's income plundered by hyperinflation, for the whole country, from 1992 to 1999, Russia's economy continued to decline seriously for seven years. 1998 the gross national product decreased by 44%, the total industrial output value decreased by 54%, and the production of consumer goods decreased by 58%. By 2000, Russia's GDP was less than that of the United States110, and its ranking dropped from the fifth place in the world in 1987 to the third place in the world. The living standard of Russian residents has plummeted, and their health and average life expectancy have also deteriorated, from a big country to a weak country. Before 1988, the per capita GDP of the Soviet Union had exceeded 10000 USD. Twenty years later, in 2008, Russia's per capita GDP just exceeded 9,500 US dollars.
I have no intention to evaluate the merits and demerits of Jeffrey Sachs, a master of shock therapy and an American economist, but the so-called "economy" is nothing more than "helping people through the world", and what economists do should be aimed at increasing human welfare. It is undeniable that "shock therapy" has achieved some success in Bolivia. However, in the tragic seven years when Russia was in a "shock", the western world constantly spoke highly of Sachs, but there was little analysis and reflection on his theoretical defects, which made people feel incomprehensible. 1Time magazine published in February 1994 praised Sachs as "the most famous economist in the world"; 1997 The French newspaper The New Observer listed saxophone as one of the 50 most important leaders in the world.
What if China is privatized?
For the prospect of "privatization" of state-owned property in China, which is clamored by a few people, we can also deduce it according to the formula deduced above. According to the latest data of SASAC, the total assets of central enterprises in China are close to 24 trillion yuan. Assuming that the value of allocated land, mining rights and other franchise rights is added, the total assets of central enterprises are about 50 trillion yuan, which is calculated as twice the assets, but how much can China trade?
So far, China's narrow money is 20 trillion, and its broad money is 70 trillion. Deposits in broad money are people's pension money, and usually do not enter the field of property rights transactions in large quantities. At the same time, the deposit reserve of commercial banks in the central bank is still locked at around 12 trillion yuan. We calculate in narrow money, of which 16 trillion yuan is corporate savings. Considering that many of these savings are working capital of enterprises that are about to be sold, it is difficult to enter the trading market. Therefore, a rough optimistic estimate is that there are 5 trillion funds to buy about 50 trillion property rights. If we put the central enterprise bonds worth 50 trillion yuan into the market according to the Russian privatization practice, according to Fisher formula, the result will be the above assets under the condition that other monetary conditions remain unchanged.
What is particularly alarming is that the current amount of hot money flowing into China is relatively large, which is essentially different from the situation when Russian shock therapy was implemented. Before Russia's privatization, the amount of overseas hot money flowing into the Russian economy was not much. Even so, after privatization, a large amount of hot money entered Russia through various black markets and bought bonds of former state-owned enterprises at low prices, thus controlling a large number of pillar industries in Russia, which not only seized valuable wealth created by the Russian people over the years, but also seriously threatened Russia's economic and financial security.
Let's calculate the possible inflation. At present, China's household savings deposits and corporate deposits 16 trillion yuan, plus other types of deposits, total 47 trillion yuan; In 2009, the gross domestic product was 33.5 trillion yuan, and the total retail sales of social goods was 12.5 trillion yuan. According to Fisher formula MV=PT, if privatization is completed in one year, the original PT is only 12.5 trillion, while the value of state-owned enterprises in China exceeds 50 trillion. Even if the currency circulation speed remains unchanged, 50 trillion yuan is four times that of the original MV, which means that the price will rise four times within one year of privatization! The panic of ordinary people will make China's savings of about 47 trillion yuan enter the market, so that prices will rise eight times in one year. Under hyperinflation, because the society is unwilling to hold money, it will lead to a sharp or even an order of magnitude increase in the circulation speed of money. If you change the money spent in one month into three days, it means that the circulation speed of money will increase by 10 times. In this way, a hundredfold inflation will become a reality within one year! What is the result of expansion 100 times? That is, no matter how much you get in "privatization", almost all your property has been looted!
Dialectical view of American private system
Speaking of the private system in the United States, it is always said that American houses are not only permanent property rights, but also the sky above the house and the land within 800 meters below the house belong to the owner; Only above a certain height does the sky belong to the country. If oil or other minerals are found within 800 meters underground, these resources belong to the owner. It seems that after buying a house, the property will be yours. "Wind energy can enter, rain can enter, but Wang Jun can't" is a "sacred case" in the hearts of some people who are full of yearning for the western world. These public opinions have given many ordinary people in China an illusion. If we understand this so-called ownership from a higher angle, we can find the clue of American private ownership.
"Wang Jun" really can't get into the house bought under private ownership? No! The property tax in the United States is 1% ~ 3%. If you buy a house with 1 10,000 USD, and the property tax rate is 3%, then you have to pay the property tax of 30,000 USD for this house every year: 100/3 = 33.3 years, which means you have to buy a house again every 33.3 years. If it is a private house, even if people die, they have to pay property tax. And the property tax is levied according to the actual value of the house you own. If your house has appreciated in the past 33.3 years, for example, from $6.5438+0 million to $3 million, congratulations, you have to pay $90,000 in property tax for this house every year. If you are a nail house, you really don't have to move, but the valuation of your house will greatly increase with the surrounding construction, and the property tax you have to pay will also explode-in the property tax mode, nail houses are very difficult! Moreover, although "property is sacred and inviolable", government tax collectors are even more inviolable. If you don't let the tax collector in, the other party has the right to collect taxes at your house with a gun! If the property tax is not paid, the government has the right to auction the house. For example, the heroine in the movie "Dust and Fog Home" neglected and the house was auctioned.
In western developed countries, there is a classic story about people who lost their houses because of property tax. Casa Loma Castle presented by financier Sir Henry Perate is the largest private residence in Canada. During the Second World War after the Great Depression, due to the increase of property tax of the Toronto municipal government, the luxury house rose from 600 Canadian dollars per year to 1 000 Canadian dollars per month (a huge sum at that time), which led to the monopoly Sir Perate having to auction works of art and furniture to pay taxes. Finally, the house was taken over by the Toronto city government because it could not afford the tax of 27303 Canadian dollars, and now it is open to the public as a museum.
Property tax is a kind of tax levied by local governments, and it is the main source of financial revenue of local governments (counties, towns, school districts and communities) in the United States, accounting for about 30%, and generally accounting for about 70% of local government tax revenue. In other words, local governments in the United States rely entirely on property taxes. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2000 to 2007, the personal income in the United States increased by 28%, the price of medium-priced houses increased by 48%, and the property tax in the United States increased by 62%.
In Manhattan, new york, more than 90% residents even rent for life. Why? It is because the 3% property tax in this respect makes many people feel unwilling or unbearable. At that time, Song Meiling lived in a penthouse on the edge of Central Park with a value of about 70 million to 80 million dollars, and she had to pay more than 2 million dollars in property tax every year. Such a luxurious house can't be given to ordinary people for nothing. At the same time, because the local government stipulates that the annual rent increase should not exceed 3%, controlling the rent at a price that ordinary people can afford is also the reason why local residents would rather rent than buy a house.
In addition, some people in China think that American land is private, which is also a misunderstanding. In fact, the private land ownership rate in the United States is not high. At present, the federal government owns 30% of the United States, and this proportion is increasing year by year. Coupled with the land owned by the state government, county government and town government, the proportion of private land is even smaller.
There is also a very interesting system in the United States, that is, community residents' autonomy. For example, if you like a community, it is not enough to have money. You can only move in with the consent of the residents in this community (you don't need the consent of your neighbors to buy a house, but you need to move in). If you do something bad, such as being caught whoring, the residents of the community can vote you out. If you don't leave, let the police (the community police are also paid by the residents) drag you out. The so-called oil found downstairs in your house is also yours. This statement is also a lie. On the one hand, it is difficult to have oil in such a shallow layer. More importantly, even if there is oil, you must first obtain the consent of your neighbors, especially the consent of the government's road authorities (the exploitation of shallow underground resources will cause subgrade subsidence, as well as environmental and groundwater resources problems), so the so-called ownership is private. Actually, it's just lip service. Even if you want to dig a well in your own yard, you must get the approval of the government and the consent of your neighbors before you can do it. It is completely different from what some people take for granted "doing whatever they want on my own land". Therefore, this so-called "the ownership of underground resources is also private" is only a nominalization to a considerable extent.
Therefore, in the United States, the ownership of houses and land is actually shared with public rights, including possession, use, income and disposal, and the right to use is shared with community public rights rather than exclusive to you. The restriction of American community public on the exercise of individual housing ownership is a restriction of socialized rights on private power. If we do not realize this clearly, our understanding of "private ownership" will inevitably be biased.
In addition, I have to say that the high inheritance tax in the United States is very high, even reaching half of the income! This tax is actually a "final judgment" income tax settlement for everyone. This is also one of the reasons why some rich people in the United States are keen on "naked donation", because these foundations that absorb donations are all private, and what they want most is that others can also donate to their foundations (in fact, it can also be regarded as a means of redistributing social wealth), nominally giving back to society, but in fact their descendants own and manage this foundation and get a share while avoiding taxes.
In fact, there are still many points and many levels to analyze the private system in the United States. The above is only from the perspective of real estate that ordinary people are more concerned about. This may help to understand the essence of private ownership in the United States and clarify some people's arguments about private ownership in China.