Wen Hao Ott is driving? Wang shuoqi
Yesterday, on February 4th, local time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that after consultation, the British government planned to stop selling new gasoline, diesel vehicles and hybrid vehicles by 2035. Five years earlier than the original time in 2040.
According to Reuters, more and more countries and cities around the world plan to crack down on diesel vehicles. Mayors in Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens said they plan to ban diesel vehicles from entering the city center by 2025.
Under such amazing favorable conditions, Tesla's share price, once wiped out by the whole army, plummeted 17. 18% yesterday. Some commentators pointed out that Tesla's stock is entering a technical bear market.
In the past five days, it rose from/kloc-0 to $65,438+600 on October 30th, and reached a high of $96/kloc-0 on February 4th, closing at $887. However, shortly after the opening on February 5th yesterday, Tesla's share price fell below $800, and the closing price on that day was $734.70, plunging 17. 18%.
The reason for the stock price crash is that a company executive said that the coronavirus that is raging in China may delay Model? 3 delivery time.
Musk signed an agreement on 20 18. When Tesla shares reach 1000 USD, he will personally receive the first option award, amounting to 364 million USD.
In the past two days, Tesla's share price fluctuated greatly, which really accelerated the heartbeat of global investors.
When he saw $65,438+$0,000, it seemed that he was drifting away because of the pneumonia epidemic in China.
Tesla's share price is still close to $725. Last year, the output of Tesla was 368,000 vehicles, which were Volkswagen, Ford and GM 1%. However, its current market value is the sum of the three old auto giants, second only to Toyota in the auto industry.
So is Tesla's share price in a reasonable range?
The financial report analysis shows that Tesla not only successfully achieved net profit for two consecutive quarters, but also achieved an actual net profit of $35.8 million in 20 19. You know, this company has been listed for 10 years, and only a few quarters have made profits, which shows that everything is developing in a good direction.
It is precisely because of this history that Tesla's stock has long been a favorite of bears. At the most exaggerated time, about a quarter of Tesla's outstanding shares are empty. Even elon musk himself predicted that the company might go bankrupt in May last year, and even put forward the plan of privatization.
However, such a profit performance obviously cannot support such a stock price. You know, Ford's net profit, which plummeted by 97% in 20 19, is still $84 million, still exceeding Tesla.
After the plunge, Tesla's share price is still about 55 times of 202 1 expected net profit. In contrast, Amazon is 49 times, Apple is 22 times and Alphabet is 23 times.
But behind this wave of rise, in addition to the fuel of capital, there is also a series of good news from Tesla itself.
Tesla's production capacity is also gradually increasing, reaching 368,000 vehicles in 20 19-which is not easy for this company that is on the verge of bankruptcy at any time. Musk said that in 2020, Tesla's production capacity is expected to further increase by 36% to 500,000 units.
Behind the sales growth, there is the strength of China factory. The Shanghai factory, rapidly established by "China Speed", delivered the first batch of models at the end of the year. 3.202 1 After the completion of the German factory, Tesla's annual production capacity will exceed 1 10,000 vehicles.
In addition, the battery with the highest cost dropped from 20 1, 100 USD per kwh to 20 19 USD per kwh 156 USD. The cost reduction has obviously eased Tesla's profit pressure.
Recently, the share price of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has soared against the trend, and it is also inseparable from the cooperation of Tesla.
From the announcement issued by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., we can see that after Panasonic, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and LG Chem will become Tesla's new power battery suppliers. The term of the supply agreement between Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Tesla is from July 2020 1 day to June 30, 2022, with a term of two years; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., limited batteries help to reduce costs, and domestic Tesla is expected to further reduce prices in the future.
Tesla is also confident in the sales forecast of future models. Musk said at the earnings conference that the upcoming compact? SUV？ Models? y？ Will sales exceed? Models? 3。
As for the electric truck that has just been released for a long time? Cybertruck, the reservation data is good, too Although there is the possibility of canceling the reservation, Musk said that all trucks produced by Tesla can be sold.
It can be said that Tesla is not worthy of the current share price just by looking at the profit, but the current share price seems to depict Wall Street's optimism about future new energy products, but capital must see the trend of profit, affection and improvement. It is not surprising that only one straw needs to fall, and it is easy to be trampled.
Morgan Stanley analyst? Adam. Jones? In the email to customers, it is pointed out that unless Tesla can sell 3 million to 4 million cars every year after 10, today's share price is true.
The hype of public opinion is more like a game without smoke. Before today's plunge, most people on Wall Street expressed optimism.
Ron, Tesla's major shareholder and billionaire investor? Ba Long firmly supports Tesla, whose company of the same name holds nearly 6,543,800 shares of Tesla. Barron believes that Tesla's revenue will reach $65,438+0 trillion in ten years. He said that this is only the beginning, and Tesla is expected to become one of the largest companies in the world, so he will not sell any shares of Tesla.
Last week, the ark? Investment founder Catherine? Wood, Tesla's share price is still "seriously undervalued". The research report released by Ark on June 365438+1October 3/KLOC-0 predicted that Tesla's share price would reach $7,000 in 2024, and its market value would reach $65438 +0.3 trillion. Part of the reason for this prediction is that Tesla will launch a profitable "self-driving taxi" fleet.
Securities company Wedbush? Securities analyst Dan? Ives warned in 20 19 that "Wall Street is still skeptical." He believes that demand and profitability will remain the two main driving forces to boost Tesla's share price in the next few quarters, which shows that the challenges facing Tesla are far from over.
But a few days ago, Ives changed his previous statement. He predicted that Tesla's share price would reach $65,438+$0,000 per share, and he believed that there would be an obvious turning point in the global demand for electric vehicles in 2020 and beyond, and Tesla would lead this trend.
When Tesla's stock fell, this statement appeared.
Once Tesla Bear, 20 18, he changed his attitude and announced that he would never short Tesla again. Shannon? This study changed the tone again ... It said on Twitter: "We like Tesla and promise never to short it again. But now the market is pushed too high, and we think that if Musk himself is a fund manager, he will also want to short. This has nothing to do with technology. Tesla has become the new Wall Street casino. "
Even people who have never bought Tesla shares before want to squeeze in like crazy. Is this scene called by American financial media? FOMO, are you scared? Yes? Missing? Out (afraid of missing).
From stock trading software? Robin hood? The data shows that in the first three days of February, 1.36 million people bought Tesla shares for the first time, of which about1.20 million people opened accounts for the first time when Tesla's share price exceeded 700 dollars.
It can be said that in the analyst's mouth, a deceptive ghost left only a chicken feather.
But this game is the charm of stocks. Like all stock investments, price increase is a bet on the future. Without the support of profit, it is a bubble after all.
However, one fact can be confirmed at present, that is, the current discussion about Tesla has changed from the direction of bankruptcy to the direction of whether it is a bubble. The most basic judgment is that Tesla has successfully stepped out of the most dangerous situation and has long been a leading technology company in the United States.
The trust and attention that Musk gained in the capital market is actually the return of American capital to this persistent innovator. If his anxiety and madness are taken into account, the rise and fall of the stock price in this scene is just another page for his legend.
However, if you think that Tesla can eat all the dividends of the world's automobile transformation electric vehicles, it is too wishful thinking. The size of the automobile market is far from that of smart phones.
In the face of Tesla's soaring market value, China's new car-making force He said it didn't understand. At present, it doesn't see the logic of such a high valuation. He said: "As a practitioner who holds a large number of Tesla and a few auto stocks, I have always insisted that within ten years, there will be many companies in the field of smart cars with a market value of more than 65.438+000 billion-65.438+000 billion US dollars. Tesla and Apple are both powerful players, and Xpeng Motors will try to arrive as soon as possible. However, the price difference between cars and mobile phones is huge, and it is difficult to form a huge winner-take-all and ultra-high gross profit. So I don't see the logic of such a high valuation at present, unless it is a real long-term holder. The epidemic situation in China today has given us a new hint. Even if the era of highly automatic driving comes, the proportion of private car mode will far exceed that of full-time enjoyment mode; At present, China's emphasis on quantity rather than quality in the era of smart cars has been truly realized by many people, but it is far from enough. "
But we can't deny that Tesla has given hope to people who are also running on this road.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.