The insiders believe that with the continuous repair of A-share valuation and the opening of Huluntong at the end of the year, the investment value of financial and consumer assets is not pessimistic if combined with the analysis of sustainable profitability and valuation level, but it can be optimistic in the medium and long term.
Centralized holding in the financial sector
The data shows that according to the statistics of the top ten tradable shareholders of listed companies in the third quarter, the securities held 464 stocks at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 55 stocks compared with the end of the second quarter, with an increase of13.45%; The stock market value was 633.69 1 100 million yuan, a decrease of 1284. 1. 1 100 million yuan, a decrease of 16.85%. Huijin held 949 stocks at the end of the third quarter, a slight decrease of 16 stocks compared with the end of the second quarter; The stock market value was 30181400 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.358 billion yuan from the end of the second quarter.
In terms of specific shareholding, the financial sector is concentrated by securities and Huijin, and China Ping An is the biggest heavyweight of both parties. The stock market values of securities and Huijin were 374,465,438+billion yuan and 336,5438+40 billion yuan respectively, but securities reduced their holdings by 349 million shares in the third quarter. Among the top ten stocks held by securities companies, except China Petrochemical and China Shenhua, the rest are financial stocks, such as Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Life Insurance, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bank of Communications. In addition to China Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Construction Bank and China Pacific Insurance, Huijin also holds Kweichow Moutai, Vanke A and Gree Electric.
At the end of the third quarter, 464 stocks held by securities entered the top ten tradable shareholders, an increase of 166 stocks compared with the end of the second quarter, accounting for 35.78%; In the third quarter, there were 1 19 stocks, accounting for 25.65%; There are 60 new shares among the top ten tradable shareholders, accounting for 12.93%. Compared with the end of the second quarter, five stocks withdrew, namely Yongding, Dongfang Cable, Nanjing Medicine, Sichuan Road and Bridge and Minsheng Bank. Among the holdings, China Heavy Industry and Agricultural Bank have the largest holdings, both exceeding 654.38 billion shares, and Huaneng International, China Petrochemical, Baotou Steel and TCL Group have also increased their holdings by more than 50 million shares. Among the new shares, HNA Holdings has the largest market value, reaching 65.438+0.027 billion yuan; Followed by BOE A, Blonde Technology, Goldwind Technology and NetScience, all exceeding 200 million yuan.
Among the 949 stocks held by Huijin at the end of the third quarter that entered the top ten tradable shareholders, compared with the end of the second quarter, Huijin increased its holdings by 18 stocks, reduced its holdings by 5 stocks, 26 stocks newly entered the top ten tradable shareholders, and 42 stocks withdrew. Among the holdings, Chenming Paper has the largest holdings, reaching 20,069,000 shares, and Zhenhua Heavy Industry, Lux, Shaanxi Guotou A and Sanju Environmental Protection have all increased their holdings by more than 6,543,800 shares. Among the new shares, Vanke A has the largest market value, reaching 4.606 billion yuan; Followed by Boss Electric, Xinhualian, Beixun Group and China Digital Media, all exceeding 50 million yuan.
The top ten heavyweights in social security have not changed much.
The data shows that by the end of the third quarter, the total number of securities held by the top ten tradable shareholders of the social security fund was 56 1 share, an increase of 3 shares compared with the previous period, and the stock market value was 265.438+0465.438+73 million yuan, a decrease of 65.438+045.05 million yuan compared with the previous period. Among them, there are 96 new shares among the top ten tradable shareholders, and the stocks with more new combinations of social security funds include Liugang, Shanshan and Dazu Laser. Excluding 93 stocks, including "National Social Security Fund 40 1 combination" among the top ten tradable shareholders of China Petrochemical Company and "National Social Security Fund 4 14 combination" among the top ten tradable shareholders of contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd..
Judging from the market value of positions, the top ten positions of social security funds have not changed much in the third quarter. Agricultural Bank is still the largest position, holding 9.779 billion shares with a market value of 4.409 billion yuan, followed by Bank of Communications and China Nuclear Power.
From the perspective of industry, the industries in which the social security fund entered the top ten tradable shareholders in the third quarter were mainly computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing, while alcohol, beverage and refined tea manufacturing and retail were less.
It is worth mentioning that "National Social Security Fund 10 1 combination" appeared again in the top ten tradable shareholders of Kweichow Moutai in the third quarter, holding 2,629,900 shares, accounting for 0.2 1% of the total share capital. Kweichow Moutai is also the stock with the highest market value among the top ten new tradable shareholders of the social security fund in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 20 17, the portfolio withdrew from the top ten tradable shareholders of Kweichow Moutai. 20 18400 At the end of the third quarter, the portfolio held Kweichow Moutai shares, accounting for 0.38% of the total share capital.
BOE A, which increased its position in the second quarter of the social security fund, suffered a substantial reduction in the third quarter. "National Social Security Fund 10 1 combination" withdrew from its top ten tradable shareholders. The portfolio significantly increased its position in the second quarter, holding 335 million shares, accounting for 0.96% of the total share capital. Other social security funds with reduced holdings include Meinian Health, Little Swan A and Bank of Ningbo. On the other hand, Sany Heavy Industry, Blue Ocean House, Hongqi Chain and other stocks are the key targets of social security funds in the third quarter, indicating that large consumption and manufacturing industries are still favored.
The financial sector is undervalued.
The manager of ICBC Select Financial Real Estate Mixed Fund said that the large-cap banking stocks and insurance stocks can continuously achieve 15% annual net asset growth or 15%-20% embedded value growth. Even considering the impact of economic slowdown and interest rate liberalization, the profit model shows that the average ROE level of listed banks in China is expected to remain above 65,438+00% for a long time. In terms of valuation and dividends, banks, insurance companies, real estate companies and securities firms are at a low level at this stage, no matter from the international horizontal benchmark of PB/ROE or from the comparison of historical valuations. The average discount level of Hong Kong stocks of the same company is around 25%. If combined with the analysis of sustainable profitability and valuation level, the current position is not pessimistic about the investment value of financial assets, and the absolute return in the medium and long term is worthy of optimism.
In addition, for the insurance industry, from the perspective of industry comparison, it is a rare plate with good marginal growth in the short and medium term and attractive valuation. Referring to the historical development experience of the insurance industry in mature markets such as the United States and Japan, China's insurance industry is still in the middle of high-speed growth, and there is still a lot of room for the growth of quality agents and the promotion of insurance depth. With the improvement of the domestic insurance regulatory environment in recent years, the structure of insurance products has been obviously optimized, the proportion of insurance products has been greatly increased, the consumption attribute of the insurance industry has been further highlighted, and the growth has become more sustainable.
Ma Cheng, chairman of Juze Capital, believes that its own valuation is at a historical low in terms of insurance, banking and brokerage sectors. With the continuous repair of A-share valuation, the marginal effect of decline has been greatly weakened. In addition, at the end of the year, Huluntong opened the gate, the problem of equity pledge was gradually solved, and the backdoor restructuring was loosened, which directly benefited the brokerage sector, depending on the big financial market in the fourth quarter.
A private equity fund researcher believes that at present, many bank stocks have fallen below their net assets, and buying at this time is expected to obtain better medium and long-term returns. However, the researcher said that from the perspective of the money-making effect of the market, many high-quality small and medium-sized stocks were obviously underestimated. With the gradual recovery of market confidence, these stocks with strong performance growth are more flexible and worthy of layout.
A private equity CEO in Hong Kong said that he was more concerned about mass consumer goods, including medicine in a broad sense. China has a large consumer population, and some consumer sub-sectors are expected to run out of one or two leading industries in the future.
(Article Source: china securities journal)
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