The grey rhinoceros growing on the African prairie is huge, giving people the illusion of being slow and safe. However, when the gray rhinoceros is provoked and attacked, it will show amazing explosive power and can cause extremely destructive disasters. Therefore, people use "grey rhinoceros" to describe the risk with high probability, strong influence but easy to be ignored. Common "grey rhinoceros" incidents include high housing prices and high leverage.
The "black swan" incident refers to an extremely rare emergency, which usually causes a chain of negative reactions or even subversion. Before the discovery of black swans in Australia, Europeans before17th century thought that swans were all white. But with the appearance of the first black swan, this unshakable belief collapsed.
The existence of the black swan symbolizes an unpredictable and rare event, which is unexpected, but it has changed everything. Humans always believe in experience too much, but they don't know that the appearance of a black swan is enough to subvert everything. The famous "Black Swan" incident was related to the sinking of the Titanic.
At that time, the largest luxury passenger ship in the world was called "unsinkable dream passenger ship". No one thought it would sink. It sailed from Southampton, England to new york on April 19 12, but sank on the fourth night when it hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic.
Characteristics and differences between grey rhinoceros incident and black swan incident;
The "Black Swan" incident has the following characteristics: First, it was unexpected. Second, it has a great impact. Third, although it is unexpected, human nature urges us to make up reasons for it afterwards, which is more or less explainable and predictable.
The characteristics of the "grey rhinoceros" incident are the first, with a high probability; Second, the destructive power is huge; Third, it can be predicted; Fourth, you can defend. The difference between the two is that: in probability, black swan refers to something with low probability but great influence after it happens, while grey rhinoceros refers to an event with high probability and great influence.
Black swan refers to a short-term emergency, while grey rhinoceros has a certain degree of external performance, which broke out only after accumulation. The loss of black swan is limited, while the loss of gray rhinoceros will cause us huge short-term losses.
Reference to the above content: Baidu Encyclopedia-Grey Rhino