The first misunderstanding is that we think that history is regular, and we can sum up the reasons behind the rise and fall of chaos, and then use it to guide our actions. Otherwise, how did Sima Guang name this book Zi Tongzhi Jian? It certainly makes sense to say this in the past, because the changes in ancient society were relatively slow, and the experience of one generation can certainly be shared with the next.
However, from a relatively large scale, the so-called "lessons from the past" is not established.
For example, the research of historians now thinks that the demise of the Ming Dynasty is related to the Little Ice Age in climate change and deflation caused by the depletion of silver mines in South America. You see, this kind of factor that strongly affects history can't be seen in Zi Tong Zhi Jian. The course of history is often unexpected. This is why Li Hongzhang said that famous sentence after the Opium War, which is called "the once-in-a-lifetime change".
Teacher Wang Shuo once asked Slade, a history professor at Yale University: You historians are so familiar with history, can you better predict the future? Slade said something very interesting.
He said: "we are familiar with history, so we know that anything can happen, the darkness and unexpected light that we can't look directly at." However, knowing this can only make us better explain the reality, but not make us better predict the future. Nothing will happen in the future because I don't know which butterfly will flap its wings. Familiarity with history lets us know what animals like people can do and makes us more imaginative about the future. Ordinary people either don't know enough about history or forget it, so they lose their imagination of the future. "
You see, reading history is not to know the future, but to understand the reality and keep imagining the future.
Is it useless to read history? As we all know, the modernization process in the past 200 years has greatly changed the face of human civilization. Take the wealth effect as an example. The accumulation of this 100 year may be the sum of the previous thousands of years. In that case, what's the use of looking at history?
Well, that's not right either. This is another inspiration from teacher Wang Shuo's class.
He said it is important to cultivate a sense of history. What is a sense of history? My understanding is to go back to the situation of everyone and every generation in history and re-understand the achievements of those who lived, struggled and died under the constraints they faced at that time.
Only in this way can you see the real modern civilization. The outbreak of human civilization is indeed in the past 200 years, but just like the fifth steamed stuffed bun, you are full, but the first four steamed stuffed buns are not useless.
There is a passage in the book Lessons from History, which is very good. Let me read it to you:
"Our heritage today is richer than ever before. It is richer than Pericles because it contains the essence of his late Greek culture; Richer than Leonardo da Vinci, because it contains other masters of the Renaissance; Richer than Voltaire, because it contains all the crystallization of the Enlightenment. If there is any progress in history, it is not because we were born healthier, better and smarter than our predecessors, but because we were born in a richer heritage, supported by a higher base, based on all previous achievements in knowledge and art, and rose accordingly. The so-called history is the creation and recording of this heritage, and the so-called progress is the expansion, preservation, inheritance and utilization of it. "
How well you speak. I also want to extend the significance of cultivating a sense of history. Is to help us better understand the reality.
How do we understand something? Like this computer in front of me. I want to know it, not just know it. In fact, as a liberal arts student, I don't know enough about its internal components, operating mechanism, software algorithms and so on. I just know how to use it.
And I dare say, why do I know this computer? Because I understand its relationship with the world. I know it is made by Apple, and I know what files are stored in it. Under what circumstances will I use these files? Where did I take it? What can I do with it? Wait a minute.
Actually, I understand that everything is like this. Just knowing what it looks like is not enough. We also need to understand its connection with the world. However, it is not enough to focus on its connection with the real world. I also need to know its connection with people and things at different times. Just like why I bought this Apple computer. Because I know the history of Apple, because I like Jobs and so on. You see, history is not a person or fact in the past, but a part of reality, and history is deeply embedded in our understanding of reality. This is the role of a sense of history.
For another example, although cats and dogs are both human pets, why is the relationship between dogs and humans closer, while cats and their owners are a little distant? Simply put, the genes of these two species are different. However, if you understand the history of these two animals being domesticated by humans, you will know that the reason is not that simple.
Dogs have been domesticated by humans for a long time, probably tens of thousands of years ago. When was that? Humans are still in the era of hunting and gathering, and food resources are very scarce. Dogs must provide unique value if they want to be human partners. In addition to guarding the house and helping hunting, we must also be particularly loyal, so that this cooperative relationship can be stable. In the eyes of dogs, man is the master who provides food and lives.
But when were cats domesticated? About 10,000 years ago, that is, after human society has entered the agricultural society. Food resources are not so scarce. Why domesticate cats? Because there is more food, cats catch mice.
From the cat's point of view, food is captured by itself, and only a mutually beneficial relationship has been established with human beings. So, why should cats be so loyal to humans?
Knowing this history, do you understand the relationship between cats and dogs and human beings better?
Then there is a question, why do we have to understand reality with a sense of history? Just to satisfy the thirst for knowledge? No, understanding reality is for better survival.
To give a realistic example, the stock of Maotai has been rising very well. Even today, when the consumption of liquor has begun to decline, the stock of Moutai is still very strong. Ok, now you want to invest in the stock market. Do you want to buy this stock? Its share price is so high now, will it be higher? Or has it reached the final stage? If you do a realistic analysis, it is useless to analyze this line, analyze that line, look at the profit performance of enterprises and look at industry data. You must also have a historical perspective.
When you know the history of Maotai and the consensus of China people, you will make different judgments. I won't say the details, so as not to cause misunderstanding, saying that I guide everyone to stock trading.
Why do humans have civilization and wealth? Because of collaboration. Why can we cooperate? Because there is trust and consensus. How to reach a consensus? This is a historic achievement and a concentration of time. This is also the reason why Teacher Wang Shuo advocates that we should cultivate a sense of history.