Wa Army is a local armed force with Wa as the main body and split from the disintegration of Myanmar. It is also a local armed force, aiming at striving for the Wa State to become a highly autonomous state in Myanmar.
In the early 1990s, when Khun Sa was the leader of the Shan State Army, guerrilla warfare in the jungle broke out between the Shan State Army and the Wa State Army for six years. Finally, Khun Sa was defeated and forced to surrender and was placed under house arrest in Yangon, Myanmar. As a result, the Shan State Army disintegrated and split into three parts: the North Shan State Army, the South Shan State Army and the Shan State Army Central Committee. The Wa army has further developed and become the largest local ethnic armed force in Myanmar.
On the eve of Myanmar's independence, together with Shan State, it applied to Britain for independence and finally reached the Pang Long Agreement. This agreement will always be remembered by the people of Shan State, because according to the Pang Long Agreement and the later Constitution of the Union of Myanmar, Shan State has the right to demand independence from Myanmar! Later, this agreement was terminated, the constitution was amended, and Shan State lost its independent power in law. However, this call for independence has not stopped, and it still has its shadow in the new century. Shan state has set up a transitional government in exile! This demand for independence will last for generations.
Shan nationality, which is the name of Myanmar; In China, it is called Dai; In Thailand, it is the main nation and is called Thai. In Lao Guo, it is called the old man; It's called Dai in Vietnam. It is a widely distributed nation, and the Shan people's call for independence has been secretly helped by Thailand, and this help will continue. Therefore, the Shan people's call for independence will not stop now, but will last for a long time.
Shan State is the largest and most populous state in Myanmar, occupying nearly14 of Myanmar's territory, which has an important influence on Myanmar's national security and can also be said to be the main area to prevent Myanmar's ethnic minorities from becoming independent. Because this area is mainly mountainous, with inconvenient transportation, complicated ethnic relations and close to Thailand, the strength of Myanmar headquarters is relatively weak.
For a regime, other ethnic groups in its territory are rarely allowed to be independent unless the government in power is really unable to continue to maintain its rule. If the Shan people want independence, I don't think the vast majority of Burmese people will agree. Although Myanmar's military government is autocratic, it has won the support of many people because of its determination to safeguard national unity. Maintaining national unity is an important basis for the legitimacy of Myanmar's military government and will also be an important basis for the legitimacy of Myanmar's future democratic government. In short, the Myanmar government and people cannot allow the Shan people to become independent.
For China, Myanmar's interests are obviously greater than Shan State's, because it wants to seek the southwest sea passage. When you have to choose, Shan State will eventually be abandoned. Besides, China has problems such as Taiwan Province Province, Tibet and Xinjiang, so it is unlikely to support Shan independence, because once it supports Shan, this practice may be cited by other countries. However, China will not support the complete reunification of Shan State in Myanmar. At best, it is to watch Myanmar gradually use force to achieve their goals and adopt a non-interference attitude-because there is Thailand behind Shan State, and China needs the support of the Thai government.
The political requirement of Wa State is to become a state in Myanmar, not a special zone under Shan State.
The Wa State has a certain military strength, but the population of ethnic minorities is relatively small, only over 400,000. Plus more than 300 thousand in China, it's only more than 700 thousand Because of the small population and small area, it is unlikely to ask for independence, and it is difficult to ask foreign countries to support independence. China may support the Wa state, but it is impossible to support its independence, because there are more than 300,000 people in China! What's more, China needs Myanmar to provide access and maintain borders and equality. At the same time, it is unlikely to get the support of Thailand and Laos, because the Wa army wiped out the former Shan army, and these troops still have some remnants on the Thai border, so their hatred cannot be resolved in a short time. Thailand secretly supports the Wa people against the Burmese government at most, but will not support its independence!
I think these characteristics of Yi people can't be ignored by them and most elites. In other words, the Wa people's demand is only to become a state under the Union of Myanmar, and their demand is autonomy, not independence.
Will the Wa people agree to become a state in the Union of Myanmar? Of course it won't be so easy to agree. Isn't Myanmar confused by many ethnic minorities? Therefore, at present, the biggest politics in Myanmar is not democracy and freedom, but safeguarding national unity. Democracy can only be realized on the premise of reunification and after reunification. For Myanmar, one less country means one less danger, and it will not agree so easily. All that remains is negotiation, reunification by force or buy-off. From another point of view, it is not impossible for Myanmar to agree that Wa will become a state of Myanmar as long as conditions permit.
For Myanmar, the biggest obstacle to maintaining reunification is Shan State, not Wa State. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of divide and rule, that is, to separate the oversized Shan State, let the Wa State rule it, and use the Wa State to rule it.
If the Wa state is established in the whole area east of salween, the Wa people will be reduced by half, and their governance will definitely fall into infighting. On the contrary, their strength will be greatly reduced, which is not enough to fight against the Myanmar government. At the same time, Thailand and Shan State will be separated to form a buffer zone. Why not?
For China, it is important to have a peaceful border, smooth commercial routes and drug control, and who is in power is second. China, on the other hand, has always advocated that it is not good to interfere in other countries' internal affairs and directly interfere in Myanmar's domestic development, let alone demand others. Relatively speaking, China prefers to see a stable but not completely synchronized Myanmar-or, in a word, divide and rule. Therefore, for the Wa State, the most sensible choice is to reach a compromise with the Myanmar government, become a state of the Union of Myanmar with a high degree of autonomy, solve a large-scale army at an appropriate time, and concentrate on economic and cultural development. Only in this way can it survive.
Can the requirement of becoming a country be realized now? Not exactly. Myanmar will hold a general election in June+10 this year. If the Wa State wants to become a state in Myanmar, it will have to wait until the new government comes to power to amend the Constitution. At the present stage, the government of Vanuatu must be extremely patient, avoid conflicts with Myanmar government forces, give them no chance to seize the handle, preserve their own strength, safeguard the achievements in drug control, develop the economy, win the sympathy and support of China and other countries, and establish the following good image.