Investing in paper and silver depends on whether you can meet the big market and accurately grasp the short-term direction. It is easy to make money only when you encounter a big market, especially when you are unilateral. If you encounter short-term shocks, especially when there is a commodity bear market, you need to lower your yield expectations.

Looking back at silver as a commodity and a safe-haven currency, the trend of silver is equivalent to the superposition of copper and gold. Looking back at the historical trend of silver, usually the trend of silver will be higher than that of copper, and the low point will appear later.

At present, the trend of silver mainly focuses on the trend of the US dollar and the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike, because the trend of silver and gold is opposite to that of the relative interest rate in the United States.

As can be seen from the above figure, the relative high of silver at 20 1 1 coincides with the beginning of the accelerated decline of domestic GDP growth rate, and the copper price has peaked at that time.

Compared with history, the Fed is still in the cycle of raising interest rates, and the global economic growth rate is slowing down. At present, investment in paper and silver needs to shorten the income period.