According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the "agricultural product wholesale price 200 index" 1 19.08 on October 30th was 0.27 point higher than yesterday, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price 200 index was 12 1.73.
As of today 14: 00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market is 52.23 yuan/kg, which is the same as yesterday. Last week, the average price of pork was 5 1.2 1 yuan/kg, up 1 1%, which further approached the price of beef and mutton.
1. Why do pork prices keep skyrocketing?
As we all know, the rise and fall of pork price mainly depends on the price of live pigs downstream, and the most important factors affecting the price of live pigs are the stock of finished pigs and consumer demand.
Judging from the current situation, there are still positive factors in the price of live pigs, the number of live pigs is small, and the demand for pork consumption is very large.
This time, the price of pork continued to soar, on the one hand, because of the continuous spread of classical swine fever virus, resulting in a large number of deaths of pigs, on the other hand, because many small-scale pig farms have been shut down by environmental protection policies since 20 15, resulting in insufficient supply.
Of course, the trade dispute between China and the United States has also raised the price of imported pork, so the price of pork has continued to rise recently.
Second, the latest trend and impact of pork prices
Last week (10,21-27), the national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 4.6% compared with the previous week, and the market price of means of production decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous week.
However, according to official website data of the Ministry of Commerce, the price of pork was 5 1.2 1 yuan/kg from June 265438+0/October 27, up 1 1% from the previous month.
Driven by the rise in pork prices, the price of beef and mutton also rose to a certain extent, reaching 65.8 1 yuan and 62.73 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.2% and 1.7% respectively.
According to the relevant data in the first half of this year, the number of live pigs nationwide decreased by 32% year-on-year and 9.4% quarter-on-quarter. The number of fertile sows decreased by 3 1.9% year-on-year and 8.9% month-on-month, and the downward trend of this number is still accelerating.
Since Northeast China and North China are the old epidemic areas of swine fever, local farmers have replenished their pens in time after lifting the ban, and the pig production capacity has been restored to a certain extent. The increase in the number of live pigs has a positive effect on adjusting pig prices.
However, looking at the whole country, the current pig production capacity in China is still low, especially in the southern region.
With the approach of the Spring Festival, the temperature in all parts of the country will drop to the lowest point in a year, and many places in the south will soon start making bacon and sausages. With the coming of traditional festivals such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the demand for pork consumption will increase.
In traditional festivals, pork dishes are indispensable on the table of ordinary people.
Therefore, the current slowdown in the price increase of live pigs may be preparing for the next round of follow-up inflation.