Signal policy stimulus

As we all know, China stock market is a "policy city". Whether it is the 4 trillion stimulus in 2008, the real estate regulation in 2009, or the support of emerging industries behind the structural bull market in recent years, the annual central policy signals have a key impact on the A-share investment strategy. From the following situation, the favorable stimulus of policy is undoubtedly a necessary condition for the bull market to start.

I. From October 2008 to August 2009, 10.

1, stamp duty was reduced twice during the year (April and September 2008)

2. Huijin increased its holdings of three major banks in turn.

3. Proactive fiscal policy: 4 trillion economic stimulus plan.

4. Tax system reform: increase the export tax rebate rate to 17% for some commodities.

2.2065438 July 2 +00 to June165438+1October1/

1, the 12th five-year plan is launched: by 20 15, the proportion of strategic emerging industries in GDP will increase to 8%.

2. Stock index futures and margin financing and securities lending were approved.

3. Continuous real estate regulation and control

Three. 20 12 12 February 4 to February 6 of the following year

The change of government brought about the expected policy improvement.

Four. 20 13 June 24th to September 12

1. Huijin increased its holdings of China Everbright Bank, Xinhua Life Insurance and four major state-owned banks.

2. Shanghai Free Trade Zone was approved.

Signal 2 Relatively loose monetary environment

The capital side is a strong support for the index to rise, and the loose monetary environment undoubtedly adds momentum to the index to rise. In the following four bull markets, the monetary environment was relatively loose, the interest rate was at a low level, and there was almost no interest rate increase or deposit reserve increase, which provided a great liquidity supply for the stock market.

1) From 2008 10 to August 2009.

Under the financial crisis, monetary policy changed from tight to loose.

Since the third quarter of 2008, the deposit reserve has been lowered four times, and the central bank has reduced the frequency and scale of open market operations in the same period. Large-scale money supply injected a stimulant into the market in 2009. In June 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of M 1 and M2 rose to 34.6% and 29.6% respectively, which was much higher than the average level in the past.

2) We will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy on July 2, 2065438+00-165438+10/KLOC-0.

20 10 The balance of base money in the third quarter was 16. 1 trillion yuan, an increase of10.7 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year. With the aggravation of the inflation crisis, the central bank raised interest rates twice at 20 10 and 10, and the one-year deposit and loan benchmark interest rate was raised by 0.25 percentage point.

3) prudent monetary policy 20 12 February 4 to February 6 of the following year.

At the end of March, the balance of the base currency was 25.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 654.38+030.6 billion yuan over the beginning of the year. The loan interest rate of financial institutions has generally declined. In March, the weighted average loan interest rate of non-financial enterprises and other departments was 6.65%, down 0. 19 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

4) A prudent monetary policy from June 24th to September 24th, 2003 20 12.

20 13 At the end of September, the balance of the base currency was 26.3 trillion yuan, up by 1 1.5% year-on-year, and up by 1.08 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. In the same period, the weighted average interest rate of loans from non-financial enterprises and other departments was 7.05%, down 0.04 percentage points from August.

Signal 3 Economic data of continuous growth

In addition to abundant funds, the improvement of macroeconomic data is the internal driving force for the stock market to rise. Judging from the four bull markets, during this period, GDP and CPI both showed a steady upward trend, and the economy was in a steady upward cycle.

In the first three quarters of 2009, the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 210.8 trillion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, and 8.9% in the third quarter. Consumer price index (CPI) decreased 1. 1% year-on-year, and decreased 1.3% year-on-year in the third quarter.

2) July 2, 2065438 +00 to June165438+1October 1 1;

20 10 gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter was 26.9 trillion yuan, up by 10.6% year-on-year, and up by 9.6% year-on-year. CPI rose by 2.9% in the first three quarters and by 3.5% in the third quarter. During the reporting period, PPI increased by 9.75% year-on-year.

3) February 4, 2065438+02 to February 6, 20 13.

In the first quarter of 20 13, the GDP was 1 1.9 trillion yuan, up by 7.7% year-on-year; Consumer prices rose by 2.4% year on year.

4) June 24, 2065438+September, 2003 12.

In the first three quarters, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 38.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, and the consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5%.

Signal four fund positions increased significantly.

As the main participant of A-shares, the bull market rise is directly related to the fund's jiacang promotion. From the historical data, together with the fund Man Cang, it also announced that the bull market peak is coming, and the "August 8th" spell effect is remarkable.

: the fund has increased its position twice in a row.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2008, the fund position has dropped to the lower level at the beginning of 2005, and the stock position of open-ended partial stock funds is 68.57%.

In the first quarter of 2009, with the rapid rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index by 500 points, funds quickly increased their positions, among which the stock positions of open-ended partial stock funds increased to 76.93% and closed-end funds increased to 67.4%.

In the second quarter of 2009, the Shanghai Composite Index continued its strong rebound, rising by 24.69%, and the position of open-ended partial stock funds increased to 84.39%. Closed-end fund positions increased to 75.99%.

2) 2065438+July 2nd 00-165438+1October1:Half of the fund positions are as high as 90%.

In the third quarter of 20 10, with the market rebounding by 300 points from 23 19, the fund positions quickly rose to the bull market level. According to the statistics of Good Buy Fund Research Center, in the third quarter of 20 10, the average position of 188 stock funds was 86.39%, and the average position of 154 standard hybrid funds was 74.8 1%, which increased by1kloc-0 respectively compared with the previous quarter. Judging from the positions of partial stock funds, the number of high-position funds has increased significantly, with 88 funds with positions above 90%, accounting for 46.80%.

3) 201212 February 4 to February 6: positions increased slightly.

In the first quarter of 20 13, although fund managers have different views on the trend of the stock market, the overall average position of the fund still rose slightly. In the first quarter, the average position of open-ended stock base increased by 0.6 1 percentage point to 83.58% compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

4) June 24, 2065438+September, 2003 12: Stock positions reached a record high.

As of the end of the third quarter, the fund's stock position has approached a historical high. According to astronomical statistics, the stock position of the fund rose to 82. 13%, which increased by 5.37 percentage points in a quarter. A considerable number of stock positions of partial stock funds have reached 88% to 90%, and there is almost no room for further improvement.

Signal five cyclical blue chip stocks led the gains.

Blue-chip sectors such as nonferrous metals, real estate, banks and building materials still monopolize the main position of the bull market, but this situation has also changed with the structural bull market of 20 13. Among them, growth stocks such as media and computers took over the main flag, while established brands such as banks and brokers were abandoned.

In June 2008, 5438+065438+ 10, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out, and the building materials industry took the lead in rising the market, with a monthly increase of 43.26%. In the first quarter of 2009, nonferrous metals and automobiles were in a corner, becoming the main force of A-share rising. Driven by it, real estate, finance and other blue-chip sectors also rose rapidly, and the stock market counterattack campaign officially started.

2) July 2, 2065438 +00 to June 165438+ 101

In July of 20 10, three cyclical sectors, namely automobile, real estate and steel, took the lead in rebounding, with interval increases as high as 2 1.07%, 19.79% and 17.67% respectively, and by June 10, due to CPI.

Although blue-chip stocks acted as the first wave of rising power, large-cap stocks quickly fell back after a wave of rising in early June of 20 10. After June, 2065438+00, the anti-inflation sectors such as food consumption were pushed extremely fast, and the liquor sector took the lead, rising for five consecutive months, with an increase of 52.94%.

In this round of market rebound, brokerage insurance led the market, with a monthly rebound of 28.56% in June 5438+February, followed by building materials and real estate. The change of market style is also reflected in the allocation of the fund's heavy stocks. In the first quarter of 20 13, Vanke A successfully replaced Kweichow Moutai as the first heavyweight stock for many years. At the end of the first quarter, 227 funds of 55 fund companies held 2.529 billion shares in heavy positions, accounting for 26. 17% of the tradable share capital, an increase of 60% compared with 20 12 in the fourth quarter.

4) June 24, 2065438+September, 2003 12.

In the small rebound of 20 13, the structural bull market differentiation is more obvious. This round of Shanghai stock index rose sharply, and growth stocks began to replace big blue chips as the rising power. In July of 20 13, small and medium-sized stocks such as media, computer and communication led the market, with the growth rates as high as 27.82%, 23.02% and 14.35% respectively. On the other hand, the old bull market signal lights such as nonferrous metals, real estate and banks are inferior, with only 7.96% and 4.42% respectively.

The number of A-share accounts that marked six continued to rise.

As an important indicator of investor sentiment, the increase in the number of A-share accounts often marks the rebound of investor information. Judging from the situation of four bull markets, the number of accounts opened often improved significantly after the market started 1-2 months.

: Before high, after low, it oscillated and rose.

The number of accounts opened was first low and then high, and it was at a low point from 10 to 12 in 2008. The number of accounts opened each month is less than10,000, and in 2009 it was as low as 324,200. However, with the sharp rebound of the market in the first quarter, the number of accounts opened increased significantly. In February 2009, it reached 1.5278 million, a sharp increase of 37 1.25% from the previous month. After that, the number of accounts opened in August 2009 increased to 2 17.2.

2) From July 2, 2065438 to June165438+1October 1 1: It rose steadily.

165438+1October, July and June, and the number of accounts opened in a single month reached 1064500,143400, 1020400 and/kloc-0 respectively.

3) June 24, 2065438+September, 2003 12: It rose steadily.

After the unilateral decline of Shanghai Composite Index 20 13 in the second quarter, the number of accounts opened has been sluggish. In June, the Shanghai Composite Index only rebounded by 368 100, and then rebounded by 366,800, 35 150 and 393,800 respectively in July and September, showing a slight increase.