Original title [Why do you like to play "China" in the US presidential election? ]
The American election is in full swing. Whether Obama is re-elected or Romney wins, it will profoundly affect the American economy and even the global economy, and the result will affect the nerves of all countries. 10- 16, this newspaper specially invited Sun Hao, a Washington correspondent of Xinhua News Agency, to interpret the American election in the whole process, so as to give readers a close look at the changes and changes of the world's largest country in the post-91/kloc-0 era.
At 9: 00 pm EST on June 10, the current US President Barack barack obama and his Republican challenger Romney will face off in the second TV debate. If nothing unexpected happens, like the first debate two weeks ago, in the 90-minute debate, the word "China" is bound to pop out of the candidate crowd, and even seem a little abrupt, even suspected of being shot while lying down. Of course, this is not a pro-China position.
Like their predecessors, Obama and Romney seem to be "struggling" in China, from campaign advertisements and speeches to TV debates. After all, all kinds of arguments are just one sentence. One of the reasons for the current predicament of the United States is China.
"China brand" has become a local hot spot.
Obviously, Ohio, located in the midwest, is at the forefront of the two candidates' "China card". Today, with the increasing partisan differences, this presidential election in the United States will be decided in at most 12 "swing states". Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes, is a battleground for both sides. For Obama with poor economic performance, the unemployment rate in Ohio is one percentage point lower than the national average, which is the best demonstration venue to publicize the effectiveness of his policies. For Romney, in a word, the * * * and the party chairman who did not successfully enter the White House have lost this territory.
In view of this "swing state" with 850,000 local jobs supported by the automobile industry, both campaign teams believe that the "beating China" in the public statement will be particularly loud. Therefore, especially since the sprint of the general election since September, Obama and Romney can be said to have stopped our appearance in Ohio. They constantly updated campaign advertisements that "beat China" or beat each other on China-related issues.
Take Romney's team as an example, the advertisements are almost identical, accusing Obama of refusing to define China as a currency manipulator, which led to millions of American jobs flowing overseas, and even accusing Obama of watching China "steal all kinds of ideas and technologies from Americans" from computers to fighter planes.
On the other hand, the Obama camp criticized Romney for building the image of a "trade war fighter against China" while investing in China to make a fortune, and also found out "small plait" from Romney's personal income and tax returns of 20 1 1, accusing Romney's trust fund of investing in CNOOC and Youku.
Despite his eloquence, the candidate's "tough response" to China is just one of his strategies to establish the image of "American tough guy" in the election year, and there is no great difference in his position against China.
On the Obama side, the main focus is on "recapture" the manufacturing jobs lost to China for Americans, and intensify efforts to trace China's so-called "unfair competition" in the trade field; As for Romney, his most famous remark is that he will label China as a "currency manipulator" on his first day in the White House, and criticize Obama's current China policy for being "soft-hearted" in the fields of employment, military affairs and human rights.
Of course, compared with verbal attacks, the current President Obama has more administrative resources to allocate when playing the "China card". For example, on September 17, 2007, the Obama administration submitted a request for consultation to the WTO, accusing the China government of providing at least 1 1 billion dollars in subsidies to the "export base" of automobiles and parts from 2009 to 2065438. On September 28th, Obama also ordered to prevent a China company from acquiring American wind farm projects.
American hegemony and the rise of China
Outside these "local hot spots", is there really a market for "China brand"? The two simple answers of "yes" or "no" can reflect the real collision between the mainstream views of "American superiority" and that American society should embrace a multipolar world.
Romney's campaign slogan is "Believe in America". To put it more bluntly, as he said in his autobiography No Apology, he firmly believes in the superiority of the United States. In this book, he focuses on how other great powers, including China, declined in history, and why the United States did not decline in the post-financial crisis era. Whether it is purely for election purposes or not, its statement does reflect the deep-rooted complex of Americans, especially the middle-aged and elderly generation, for the status of the United States as a "superpower."
It is precisely because of this complex that, despite the multi-polarization of the world in practice, the current leader Obama must clearly "believe in the United States" on the stage of domestic affairs, especially in political activities such as general elections.
Sino-US relations are undoubtedly one of the most important and complicated bilateral relations in the world today. It's easier to observe with the election as the window, especially in the process of the contrast and change of power between China and the United States, and the attitudes of all walks of life in the United States towards China are also complicated. The complexity of this mentality became more prominent after the 2008 international financial crisis. In short, perhaps neither side expected that the situation would change so quickly.
According to a study released by the Pew Research Center on October 8, at present, two-thirds of Americans believe that the United States maintains a good relationship with China, and 55% of Americans believe that the United States should establish a strong relationship with China, including "expert groups" such as government officials, scholars and business circles, accounting for 84%. However, most Americans still regard China as a competitor, with 56% of the public and 49% of experts respectively believing that China should take a tougher stance in the economic and trade field, and only 26% of the public believing that China can be trusted.
It is also based on this that no matter who can win the White House, Obama or Romney, as far as the weight of Sino-US relations is concerned, the US China policy is "afraid" to go; Judging from the complexity of the relationship, it is difficult for the United States to be close and relaxed with China.
It is worth noting that in the Pew poll, 43% of the younger generation in the United States under the age of 30 believe that China is trustworthy, which may also reflect the intergenerational trend of American public opinion and will have a certain impact on the direction of American foreign policy in the next few decades.
Will the "China" check be cashed?
Will the check written by the candidate concerning China be cashed? Anthony saich, a well-known American expert on China and a professor at Harvard University, said in an exclusive interview with reporters, "In the political cycle of the general election, you will indeed face more voices, gestures and actions against China, which is normal. Romney's exchange rate problem itself cannot be solved overnight; Obama has proposed a series of anti-trade protection sanctions, but there is no doubt that he does not want to see a trade war between the United States and China. When one of them really wins the election, they will realize that they still need to maintain a relatively normal relationship with China. This difference before and after the election is reflected in former presidents such as George W. Bush and Clinton. "
He also believes that China's understanding of this American political phenomenon is more mature now, and he can better understand that "this is the impact of the election. Let us wait patiently and see what will happen after he is elected."
In any case, Elizabeth Konomi, director of Asian Studies at the American Institute of Foreign Affairs, said that China's rising international status may bring challenges to the next US president, and China's growing strength is constantly changing the world pattern. Therefore, US-China relations should not be limited to three major themes: trade, Taiwan Province Province and human rights. The next president "must face almost all global challenges together with China", from Iranian issues, North Korea issues, global financial supervision to climate change.
If Obama succeeds in re-election, Laura Tai Sen, former economic adviser of Clinton administration, believes that Obama will continue the current China policy and prefer to communicate and negotiate with China on a package of economic-related issues. On the economic level, he is most concerned about bilateral market access and macroeconomic trends of the two countries, and exchange rate issues are often included. Since the RMB has actually appreciated and China's economy is slowing down, Obama should not change his current position on the RMB for the time being during his second term.