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Deep stock performance prediction
202 1 is the second year of COVID-19 outbreak and the first year of 14 five-year plan. What is the performance of Shenzhen A-share companies?

According to Wind's statistics, as of April 30th, 378 A-share listed companies in Shenzhen have disclosed the annual report of 202 1, achieving a total operating income of 5,955.266 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), up by14.29% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company (hereinafter referred to as "net profit attributable to the parent company") totaled 4,465,438+0,639,000 yuan, up 803.79% year-on-year. It can be seen that in the case of slowing global economic recovery, Shenzhen A-share companies have shown strong growth resilience.

Central area of Shenzhen. Photographic road force

In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", it entered the golden development period driven by "double zones" and superimposed by "double zones". The transcripts of the 20021annual report submitted by A-share companies in Shenzhen's jurisdiction reflect the high-quality development of Shenzhen's current economy to some extent and have achieved new results. After experiencing the decline in performance affected by the epidemic in the first half of 2020, Shenzhen A-share companies ushered in a steady recovery in 20021.

The revenue is good and the net profit is close to the pre-epidemic level.

According to the unified accounting results of Guangdong's GDP, Shenzhen's GDP in 20021year was 3,066.485 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% over the previous year and an average increase of 4.9% in two years.

Figure 1: Total annual net revenue of Shenzhen A-share company in 2019-202/kloc-0. Nanhua Li Ronghua

Wind data shows that in 20021year, the total operating income of 378 A-share companies in Shenzhen reached 5,955.266 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company (hereinafter referred to as "net profit attributable to the parent company") was 4.4163.9 billion yuan.

In contrast, the total operating income of these 378 companies in 20 19 and 2020 was 47.35104 million yuan and 52108.76 million yuan respectively, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company in 20 19 and 2020 was 48/kloc-0 respectively.

It can be seen that the total operating income of A-share companies in 202 1 Shenzhen is more than the previous two years, and the net profit is not only close to 2020, but also close to the level of 20 19 before the epidemic.

What is the net income growth of each company?

Figure 2:20 19-202 1 Number and proportion of enterprises with positive growth in operating income. Li Ronghua, south surveying and mapping.

Among the 378 A-share companies in 202 1 Shenzhen, 29 1 company achieved positive growth in operating income compared with last year, accounting for 76.98% of the total; In comparison, among the 378 companies, only 239 achieved positive growth in operating income in 2020 compared with the previous year, accounting for 63.22%; In 20 19, among the 378 companies in Shenzhen, there are 275 companies whose operating income is increasing, accounting for 72.75% of the total.

202 1 Among the 378 A-share companies in Shenzhen, 20 1 companies realized a positive increase in net profit attributable to their parents compared with last year, accounting for 53.17% of the total; Comparatively speaking, among the 378 companies, only 23 1 company has a positive increase in net profit in 2020 over the previous year, accounting for 61.1%; In 20 19, among the 378 companies in Shenzhen, there are 257 companies whose net profit is increasing, accounting for 67.99% of the total.

It can be seen that the number of enterprises with increased income is also better than that of the previous two years. However, the number of companies whose 202 1 net profit is increasing is less than that in the past two years.

According to preliminary statistics, among the 378 A-share companies in Shenzhen 202 1, there are 107 companies whose income has increased instead of increasing, which is a relatively small part.

The list is changing, and several families are happy and several are sad.

The top ten A-share companies in Shenzhen are all leading enterprises in the industry.

Figure 3: Li Ronghua, South China, 202 1 before annual net revenue 10 companies of Shenzhen A-share company.

Compared with the "Top Ten" list of operating income in 2020, the rankings of companies have not changed much, and they have maintained a good growth rate, reflecting the situation of "the strong will always be strong".

The data of Ping An has changed.

Correspondingly, the radiation power of China Ping An in Shenzhen A-share market is also declining. According to the data of the aforementioned 378 A-share companies, the operating income of China Ping An accounted for 24.69%, 23.38% and19, 2020 and 202 1 year respectively. In the same period, the proportion of the net profit attributable to the above A-share companies in Shenzhen was 365,438+0.065,438+0%, 26.90% and 265,438+0.65,438+03% respectively, showing a double decline. Whether the future can save the decline depends on the company's performance.

BYD is a representative leading enterprise of 202 1, with more income and less profit. 202 1 Thanks to the prosperity of the domestic new energy vehicle market in the past two years, the sales of new energy vehicles such as BYD Korea and Song reached a record high, and BYD's operating income increased by 38.02% year-on-year, ranking fifth in 202 1 "Top Ten Operating Income List", which was generally around 10-20 before. At the same time, however, due to the rising cost of upstream raw materials, BYD's net profit returned to its mother decreased by 28.08% year-on-year, ranking 2 1 among A-share companies in Shenzhen.

Judging from the enterprises whose net profit belongs to their parents, Guangtian Group ranked first in loss in 202 1. Guangtian Group, Shenzhen Eurofilm Technology Co., Ltd., lt, Xinlun New Materials and *ST Tengbang suffered losses for two consecutive years.

Guangtian Group is a group enterprise whose main business is architectural decoration design and construction. In 20021year, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Guangtian Group was 5.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6 12.55438+0%. According to the company's annual report, due to the debt default of Evergrande Group, the largest customer, the company made provision for bad debts for related accounts receivable.

*ST Tenbon started as a ticket distribution business and is the "first online business travel". Headquartered in Futian District, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, Shenzhen, it is a Shenzhen A-share company that has suffered losses for nearly three years, and received advance notice of termination of listing from Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Willing to spend money, total research and development. Expenditure reached a new high.

As the best enterprise, listed company,

It is one of the main forces for R&D to invest in Shenzhen. "Being able to make money and loving R&D" is the characteristic of listed companies in Shenzhen. Even under the influence of the epidemic, Shenzhen enterprises still do not forget to increase R&D investment.

Wind data shows that among the 378 A-share companies in Shenzhen, 354 companies disclosed the item of "Total R&D Expenditure" in the 20021annual report, totaling 1299438+0 billion yuan. Comparatively speaking, 20 19 and 2020 are 94.788 billion yuan and 10655438+04 billion yuan respectively. Thus, affected by the epidemic, the R&D investment of A-share enterprises in Shenzhen has increased instead of decreased.

From the industry point of view, according to the first-class industry classification of Shenwan industry, electronics is the industry with the largest R&D expenditure of A-share companies in Shenzhen, reaching 87, totaling 42.8 billion. 202 1, among the top 20 companies in Shenzhen A-share market, 10 comes from electronics industry. In addition, the expenditure on communication research and development reached 23.2 billion. Electronics and communication belong to electronic information industry, and the scale of this industry in Shenzhen accounts for about110 in the world and 1/5 in the whole country.

Figure 6:202 1 R&D expenditure of some industries in Shenzhen A-share market. Cartography of southern Li Ronghua.

According to official data, in 20021year, the total social R&D investment in Shenzhen accounted for 5.46% of the regional GDP. According to the GDP of Shenzhen in 202 1 year, it is estimated that the total social R&D investment in Shenzhen in 202 1 year is about1674.3 billion yuan.

Therefore, considering that the R&D expenditure of Shenzhen A-share companies and other non-A-share giants is oriented to the whole country and even the whole world, not limited to the Shenzhen jurisdiction, it is understood that the R&D investment of Shenzhen giants and A-share companies has spillover benefits to the national and even global scientific and technological innovation.

However, in comparison, taking the five US technology giants (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft) as an example, last year's R&D expenditure exceeded 1000 billion yuan, and Amazon ranked first with more than 357 billion yuan, so the R&D investment of deep-stock giants still has a long way to go.

Optimistic about the market, the number of new A shares has reached a historical level.

As of 202 1, 65438+February, 3 1, the total number of A-share companies in Shenzhen reached a record high.

According to Wind statistics, from st Xingyuan, the first listed company in 1990 12, to Aoni Electronics in 202 12, a total of 372 companies (excluding 16 B shares) were listed in Shenzhen. By 2002165438+February and 3 1, the total market value of these A-share companies in Shenzhen Stock Exchange (calculated by CSRC) reached 91656.95438+billion yuan, which is about three times the annual GDP of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2002/kloc-0.

Shenzhen, which has entered the golden development period driven by "two zones" and superimposed by "two zones", is making full use of the value of the capital market to promote a new round of high-quality innovation and development of urban economy and society.

Wind data shows that in 20021year, 4 1 companies were newly listed in Shenzhen stock market, which was the same as the number of initial public listing companies in 20 17, making it the year with the largest number of listed companies in Shenzhen stock market history. Among them, there are 27 listed companies in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 1 listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange,1/listed companies in Science and Technology Innovation Board Stock Exchange and 2 listed companies in North Exchange.

Figure 7: The number of A-share and Hong Kong-share enterprises in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen in 20021year; Cartography of southern Li Ronghua.

In addition, in 20021,there were 5 new Hong Kong listed companies and 46 new A shares and Hong Kong stocks in Shenzhen. In the same period, 20 Hong Kong stocks and 48 A-shares were listed in Shanghai, a total increase of 68; There are 22 new listings of Hong Kong stocks and 40 new listings of Beijing A shares, a total increase of 62. Comparatively speaking, there are more A-share and Hong Kong-share listed companies in Shanghai and Beijing than in Shenzhen.

202 1, the total amount of funds raised by Shenzhen A-share IPO companies reached 32.555 billion yuan. In the history, the year in which Shenzhen A-shares raised the most money was 2007. A total of 15 companies went public, raising a total of 44.526 billion yuan, of which China Ping An raised 38.870 billion yuan, setting a historical record.

In terms of quantity, there are 133 in Nanshan District, accounting for more than 1/3 of the whole city. The second is Futian District 60 and the third is Baoan District 52. Longgang District and Luohu District, as strong eastern regions, have only 28 A-share listed companies and 28 A-share listed companies, which are relatively backward. According to the latest published GDP of each district in Shenzhen in 20021year, although Longgang District, Nanshan District, Futian District and Baoan District belong to the first echelon of GDP in Shenzhen, the number of A-share listed companies is much less. How to cultivate more potential enterprises to list in Longgang District will play a greater role in the vigorous development of industrial economy.

Related Q&A: Related Q&A: Why is it often said that A shares do not include Shenzhen Stock Exchange? Why can't the Shanghai Composite Index (A shares) and Shenzhen Component Index be merged? We often say that the trend of A shares (market) generally refers to the Shanghai Composite Index, not the Shenzhen Composite Index.

Judging from the stock indexes of developed markets around the world, the trend of a stock market usually refers to its representative index. For example, when it comes to Wall Street, global investors immediately respond to the Dow Jones index, not only because it has a long history, but also because it can better represent the economic barometer of the United States.

In the A-share market, both the media and the outside world report the performance of the stock market with the Shanghai Composite Index as the sample, mainly considering that the Shanghai Composite Index is more representative than the Shenzhen Composite Index. This representativeness is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. The Shanghai Composite Index is a comprehensive index, which is compiled with the number of shares issued by all listed companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange as the weight. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange refers to the constituent stock index, which is compiled on the basis that the sample shares are circulated as weights.

2.a-share market is a young stock market, and its economy is in the development stage. Judging from the compilation of the two indexes, the Shanghai Composite Index is more universal to the development and changes of the company and can better reflect the function of the economic barometer.

3. The market profile data can better illustrate the problem:

As of 20 19 65438+ 10/8, there are 3698 A-share listed companies, and the number of companies in Shenzhen is 680 more than that in Shanghai. The total market value is 5 1.4 1.76 trillion, with Shanghai accounting for 65%, which is 1.86 times of the total market value of Shenzhen. The circulating market value of Shanghai stock market is also 1.89 times that of Shenzhen stock market. The average P/E ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange 13.77 is more reliable than that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index cannot be combined into one. Judging from the requirements of the development of the A-share market, it is more appropriate to compile a representative index separately:

1. Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market are two independent stock markets. Since it is an independent stock market, there must be an independent market index that can reflect the trend of stock prices. The compilation bases of the two cities' indices are different, representing different tendencies and functions. At the same time, for people (organizations) who use this index, they can be analyzed and studied from different angles.

2. There are 569 indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and many structural (segmented) indexes are widely used as supplements to market indexes. At the same time, there are cross-market structural indexes, such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the CSI 500 Index.

According to international practice, for example, American stock market is divided into Dow Jones index and Nasdaq index, but they are not merged. Therefore, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index are not combined into one, and it is reasonable to compile an A-share index.

Different indices represent the market characteristics of different hierarchical structures.

Thanks for reading!