The first wave: bear market
From June 6, 2005 to February 30, 2005, the market rose from 998 points to 1 160 points, with an increase of about 15%, and the average daily turnover in Shanghai stock market was 8.8 billion yuan. During this period, the trading volume of the market hardly expanded, and the growth of the index was not obvious. However, in the last two days of June 5438+February, 2005, the market broke through the bull-bear watershed of the annual line, which has not been reached by the market at present.
During this period, small and medium-sized stocks rose by an average of 50% (arithmetic average, the same below), SSE 50 rose by 23%, and CSI 300 rose by 2 1%. Obviously, the leading sector of the market is small-cap stocks, which is very similar to the previous "small and medium-sized bull market". In terms of individual stocks, 2/3 stocks rose. Seven stocks, including Tianwei Baobian (600550) and suning universal (0007 18), which increased by more than 100%, all completed share reform during this period, with share reform as the main line. In terms of sectors, real estate and information services led the gains.
At that time, it was a special period in China stock market: the share reform and exchange reform started here, and these two themes supported the whole bull market in the future. This gives us an important revelation: a big bull market needs a big story. Looking back recently, although the market started in a similar form, we still can't see the big story supporting the market, which is what we tried to find in this financial weekly.
The second wave: horn market
From 65438+2006 1 October1to July 6, 2006, the market rose from 1 160 to 1700, an increase of about 45%. The average daily turnover in Shanghai Stock Exchange was 2 165438+ billion yuan, up 65438+ billion yuan from the previous wave.
During this period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 87%, the Shanghai 50 rose by 82%, and the small and medium-sized board rose by 50%. For the first time, the market showed a general upward pattern, with 98% stocks rising and funds beginning to flow to blue chips. As many as 270 stocks rose more than 100%, non-ferrous metal stocks such as Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888) and Chihong Zinc Germanium (600497), and brokerage concept stocks such as Liaoning Chengda (600739) and CITIC Securities (600030) broke out collectively. Non-ferrous metal plate market doubled.
Generally speaking, under the background of accelerated economic growth and moderate macro-control, the market began to shake off the shadow of the bear market, and in May 2006, the market resumed its financing function. On the other hand, although the market has experienced a similar stage of general growth, the lack of financing function is still the main reason why the new bull market is not established.
The third wave: tauren market
From July 7, 2006 to February 4, 2006, the market rose from 1700 to 2245, an increase of about 40%. The average daily turnover in Shanghai stock market was 25.4 billion yuan, slightly larger than the previous wave. The market broke through the historical high of 2245 in one fell swoop under the circumstance that all the moving averages were long, and established a bull market pattern.
During this period, the SSE 50 rose by 43%, the CSI 300 rose by 26%, the small and medium-sized board fell by 1%, and the average increase of all stocks was less than 10%. Only 56% of the stocks rose, and the "28 phenomenon" appeared in the market for the first time. At the most important historical juncture, market heavyweights became the leading sheep, and financial real estate became a deep charge, with an increase of more than 30%. Only 16 stocks rose more than 100%, and real estate accounted for half of the country.
At that time, the macro-economy began to show signs of "overheating", the market liquidity was excessive, and the A-share price-earnings ratio reached 30 times. After the start of index stocks, all sectors of the market experienced a round of rise, and the financial real estate that won the top spot at this key point became the real leading sector in the bull market. From this point of view, whether the current market can break through 2245 points and the annual line under the start of index stocks will be the key to the establishment of a bull market. The real bull market leader will also produce a leading plate at the time of rushing off, not necessarily a non-ferrous metal plate with unlimited scenery in the early stage.
The fourth wave: tripe market
From 2006 12 to February 26, 2007 15, the market rose from 2245 points to 3000 points, an increase of about 30%. The average daily turnover in Shanghai stock market was 74.3 billion yuan, twice as fast as the previous wave. The market began to fall by more than 3% for many times, but it will soon hit a new high, reaching 3000 points in the intensified shock.
During this period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 58%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose by 56%, the small and medium-sized board rose by 36%, and 99% of the stocks rose. In the case of heavy volume, the market showed a general upward pattern for the second time, and the bull market entered a new round of speculation. In terms of sectors, a hundred flowers blossom. In terms of individual stocks, 95 stocks rose more than 100%. The heavyweight Haitong Securities (600837) rose by more than 300%. Youngor (600 177) and Liaoning Chengda (600739) who participated in the brokerage concept also doubled. Low-priced stocks and theme stocks are active.
It can be seen that after breaking through the important barrier, the speculation of the bull market has flourished, and the theme stocks have once again entered the golden age. This is also the main motivation for us to find theme stocks: whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there will always be a market for theme stocks.
However, on February 27th, "Black Tuesday" was staged, and A shares plunged by more than 8%, which "shook the world", indicating that the A-share market is constantly in line with the world. This point can also be confirmed in the synchronization of the 6000-point big top and the international stock market. At present, US stocks hit a new low of 12, and the impact on A shares should not be underestimated.
The 5th Wave: Cattle hoof market.
From February 27th, 2007 to May 29th, 2007, the market rose from 3,000 points to 4,300 points, an increase of about 40%. The average daily turnover in Shanghai Stock Exchange was 65.438+0.47 billion yuan, up 654.38+0 times compared with the previous wave. The market almost hit a new high at a straight line of 45 degrees, and only a few callbacks were completed in a single day. P/E ratio has no reference significance.
During this period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 72%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose by 44%, the small and medium-sized board rose by 45%, all A shares rose by 88% on average, and 99% of the stocks rose. The market continued to rise generally, while the blue-chip stocks in the market were relatively weak. Textile and clothing, real estate, public utilities, etc. Up to 509 stocks rose more than 100%, which fully reflected that the market was no longer rational. Shares such as Renhe Pharmaceutical (000650) and Langsha (600 137) rose more than 500% after the resumption of trading, and the concept of asset restructuring was wildly interpreted, in which S Forward (600733) pulled out 26 daily limit continuously.
At this stage, the CPI began to exceed 3%, and the annual report performance wave began to promote the market together with funds. The number of newly opened accounts in the two cities has soared, and retail investors have become the main force in the market. This is a dangerous signal. Sure enough, the madness of the market hit the top of the policy. The sudden increase in stamp duty on May 30 represents the beginning of the state's regulation of the stock market, and a large amount of hot money has been driven out of the market. This tells us that what can really turn the market around is policy.
The sixth wave: oxtail market
From May 30, 2007 to June 6, 2007, the market rose from 4,300 points to 6 124 points, an increase of about 40%. The average daily turnover in Shanghai stock market is150 billion yuan, and the turnover is no longer enlarged. Fund-led index stocks launched a blue-chip bubble market, and the price-earnings ratio of A shares exceeded 60 times. Formally, this is like the third bull market, but this time it is pushing the market to hell.
During this period, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose by 6 1%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 43%, and the small and medium-sized board rose by 1%, while A shares rose by only 7% on average and only 43% of the stocks rose. This is a market over 28, and the performance of the index and individual stocks has been seriously deviated. Mining, non-ferrous metals, finance, steel and other weight sectors such as elephants dance, falling as high as 40%. Only 54 stocks rose more than 100%, and resource stocks such as Shandong Gold (600547) and Xishan Coal and Electricity (000983) staged the final madness.
At that time, China's CPI had exceeded 6%, and the management was also taking measures to suppress the skyrocketing stock market and housing market. The market peaked with the global stock market when the quantity could not keep up, and the most magnificent bull market in the history of A shares died jokingly in the blue-chip bubble. Since then, A shares have not performed in the bear market of 1 years, and the "story-telling" market of theme stocks has once again wandered in the market.