On August 29th, 20021year, the announcement on the centralized transfer of the second batch of residential land in Shenzhen was issued, and the upper limit of land premium rate was uniformly adjusted from 45% to 15%, reaching the upper limit.
Previously, on August 26th, Guangzhou Public Resources Trading Center also issued an announcement that 48 cases of residential land use rights were sold centrally, with the highest premium rate of listed land price not exceeding 15%, and the premium rate of Haizhu jiang tai plot with the highest land price was limited to 9%. On the same day, the announcement on the centralized transfer of the second batch of residential land issued by Hangzhou also made it clear that the upper limit of the premium rate of general plots was adjusted to 15%, and the upper limit of the premium rate of "competitive" pilot plots was adjusted from 10% to 5%.
It is reported that Tianjin, Qingdao, Chengdu, Hefei and other places have also issued the second batch of centralized land supply rules, and a new round of land supply system is taking shape, and the whole land market will usher in a new reshuffle.
According to reports, the Ministry of Natural Resources held a closed-door meeting in August 20021year to clarify the adjustment of land transfer policies in the second batch of core cities, stipulating that the premium rate of a single residential land should not exceed 15%, and the premium rate should not be adjusted by raising the starting price.
/kloc-After the red line of 0/5% premium rate, will the house price drop? Where will land finance go?
Tupai Past and Crazy Premium
At the end of 1987, the first land auction in China was held in Shenzhen. This is the first time that the mainland has sold the right to use state-owned land by public auction, and it is also the beginning of local auction in China and real estate marketization in China for more than 30 years.
Many years later, Wang Shi, a famous real estate developer, commented on the auction at the end of 1987 in his autobiography: The most basic cornerstone of China's real estate development was thus laid. This hammer broke the history of China's land use system and directly contributed to the revision of the Constitution, which can be called "a beat" of China real estate.
It is worth noting that the object of comprehensive reference at that time was Hong Kong.
In the previous198665438+February, a report entitled "Investigation Report on Shenzhen Housing Reform in Hong Kong" was sent to the desk of Shenzhen leaders.
This report gives a comprehensive introduction to the land auction system in Hong Kong. The report wrote: "The Hong Kong government has returned all land in Hong Kong to the government, adopted a high land price policy on the basis of comprehensive planning and initial development, and obtained huge income for the Hong Kong government through policies and public auctions. By supplying and auctioning planned land, the Hong Kong government has effectively controlled the construction of the whole city, controlled the scale of infrastructure, and stimulated and promoted the development of finance, stock market and Hong Kong's overall economy. "
Also in 1986, the Land Management Law of the People's Republic of China was promulgated, and the State Bureau of Land Management was formally established in August of that year. Regarding the paid transfer of land use rights, the State Bureau of Land Management formally submitted a pilot report to the State Council in June 1987 1 1, and announced the pilot cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Xiamen.
The first to implement this policy is Shenzhen, a special economic zone. Before the first auction, Shenzhen had observed and been familiar with the land auction in Hong Kong. The plot numbered H409-4 to be auctioned at that time was close to Shenzhen Reservoir, with an area of 8,588 square meters. It is planned as residential land with a service life of 50 years.
At the first auction site, in addition to the representatives of 44 bidding companies, there were also mayors from 17 cities across the country.
The whole auction process lasted 17 minutes, and the first auction in Shenzhen was sold at a total price exceeding the reserve price of 3 million yuan and 5.25 million yuan, and the average land price was 6 1 1 yuan/square meter.
Since then, the local pat mode has been rapidly popularized throughout the country. After that, the phenomenon of high premium rate in local auction markets in many cities in China is not uncommon. 20 10, the premium rate of Hefei E 1002 plot is as high as 325%. 20 16, after 56 rounds of quotation, the premium rate of Hangzhou Xiaoshan No.23 plot reached 323%; The premium rate of plot 25 reached 325%.
Until 202 1, high premium plots are still common. 202 1 month, Foshan, Guangdong Province, China Resources Land passed11round of "fierce fighting" and finally won Chencun plot with a total price of 6.45 billion yuan and a premium rate of 106%.
Flour and bread
In the era of large-scale capital construction in full swing, the local auction policy has benefited China, which is developing rapidly. After more than 30 years, land revenue has become the main source of construction funds in many cities.
In 2020, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights nationwide was 8.4 trillion yuan, up by 15.9% year-on-year. There were 14 cities with land transfer income exceeding10 billion in that year. Many of these cities rely on land sales revenue more than 100%. In 20 19, the land transfer income of 50 major cities in China was as high as 41600 million yuan, accounting for 120% of the tax revenue, and 12 the dependence of urban finance on land exceeded 100%. Land revenue is an important financial pillar of local governments.
Liu Shouying, dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, once told the media that the rapidly expanding land finance helped the government accumulate original capital at an unprecedented speed. At the same time, the income from land sales supported the infrastructure construction of hundreds of cities in China, which effectively promoted the economic development, urbanization and industrialization of China.
Hangzhou, a new first-tier city with highly praised urban construction in recent years, will earn 257.4 billion yuan from land transfer in 2020, and its financial dependence on land will be as high as 122.96%. In June 2020 alone, the average premium rate of residential land auction in Hangzhou was as high as 2 1.37%.
However, the price of flour often determines the price of bread.
For example, in 20 14, Longguang Real Estate took a piece of land in Longhua, Shenzhen at a floor price of 25,000 yuan/square meter, which was much higher than the surrounding house price at that time. Since then, China Merchants, OCT, Jinmao and other developers have also settled in Longhua, and most of the floor prices they took were much higher than the surrounding houses at that time. Since then, Longhua house prices have continued to rise.
Until 202 1, high premium land is still a "shot in the arm" in many urban real estate markets.
On 20 16 10, Foshan began to implement the price limit in the restricted area. However, in April 2020, Foshan began to cancel the price limit of local auctions on a large scale.
In 2020, Foshan sold commercial land 1 10, and the total income was1243.83 million yuan, up 70.0 1% year-on-year.
According to statistics, from 2002 1 to1to March, Foshan signed a total of 32 1.35 million square meters of commercial housing online, up 94.8% year-on-year, and the cumulative number of online signing sets reached 28,660, up 93% year-on-year. The total turnover in the first quarter reached 56.355 billion yuan, a five-year high, up 654.38% year-on-year.
The end of land finance?
It seems that it is time to solve the problem of rising house prices and financial dependence on land.
According to sources, the Ministry of Natural Resources held a closed-door meeting in August, 20021,and explicitly requested to adjust the land transfer policy of the second batch of core cities, stipulating that the premium rate of a single residential land should not exceed 15%, and the premium rate should not be adjusted by raising the starting price.
Yan Yuejin, chief researcher of Yiju Research Institute, told China Newsweek that the relevant policies of Shenzhen and other cities further reflected the persistence and strictness of the real estate price limit policy. In the past, many cities in China had various price-fixing policies, but cities such as Shenzhen obviously did not meet the existing price-fixing policies, and further lowered the price-fixing line on the existing basis in order to further promote price stability.
A number of analysts said that in addition to curbing the excessive rise in housing prices, the land premium rate of 15% is also forcing local governments to gradually get rid of their serious dependence on land finance.
Li, chief analyst of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Institute, told China that for many years, many cities in China have expanded their urban boundaries by building new houses, and this process has come to an end. Many cities will control the scale of construction land after implementing national land spatial planning. "In this case, the urban development of selling houses by increasing low-cost land is unsustainable."
As early as 20 18, Yang Baojun, then president of China Urban Planning and Design Institute, said that the rapid urban expansion is an "abnormal state", and the "climax" of large-scale urban expansion in China has passed, and the future urban renewal is the "normal state".
Liu Shouying also told the media that with the decline of urbanization speed and the continuous exposure of many potential problems of the "land for development" model, the function of land as an engine of economic growth will no longer continue, and the new round of land management system should be adapted to the transformation of China's economic development stage.
In June, 20021,the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice to transfer all four government non-tax revenues collected by the natural resources department, including the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, to the tax department for collection.
This is another heavy news related to land finance this year besides the red line of premium rate set by land auction. The end of land finance may have arrived.