Iraq after the Gulf War: Iraq suffered a devastating blow in the Gulf War, and its comprehensive national strength, including political, economic and military forces, was weakened. 199 1 Before the Gulf War broke out, Iraq, which was rich in oil and natural gas resources, made its economic development in the Middle East, and its water value only reached 1/3 before the war, and its per capita income dropped to less than $400.
It is estimated that the direct economic losses caused by the Gulf War to Iraq amounted to about $200 billion. In the U.S. air strikes against Iraq, some infrastructure such as oil industry and transportation and some important military targets were bombed, which dealt a heavy blow to Iraq's future economic construction.
After Iraq sent troops to Kuwait, the United Nations Security Council adopted a series of resolutions to impose comprehensive sanctions on Iraq, including the oil embargo, forcing Iraq to destroy weapons of mass destruction. So far, the United Nations sanctions have lasted for 12 years, and the economic loss of Iraq has exceeded14 billion US dollars.
Militarily, the Iraqi army lost more than two thirds of its overall combat capability in the Gulf War, and more than 40 divisions were destroyed. The number of casualties ranged from 85,000 to 654.38 million+. The Iraqi navy was basically destroyed in this war.
More than a decade of economic sanctions, the impact of war and the continuous bombing by the United States and Britain have made Iraq's economic recovery hopeless and people living in poverty. Although the "oil for food" plan adopted by the Security Council was implemented from 65438 to 0996, it was not fully implemented due to the obstruction of the United States and Britain, which aggravated the humanitarian crisis caused by sanctions. According to the official figures released by Iraq, since the end of the Gulf War, 654.38+73.2 million people in Iraq have died due to lack of medicine and malnutrition, most of them children.
In addition, the Gulf War also caused serious damage to Iraq's environment. According to Iraqi reports, during the Gulf War, the United States dropped about 300 tons of depleted uranium bombs in southern Iraq. After 10 years, the incidence of difficult diseases such as leukemia and malignant tumor in this area is 3.6 times of the national average, and the abortion rate of pregnant women is more than 10 times of the past.
However, the ruling foundation and control system of the Iraqi regime have not been destroyed after the Gulf War. First, although Saddam was defeated, he still had a certain prestige. In particular, he dared to confront the world superpower, which made him regarded as a "national hero" at home and even in Arab countries. For the Arab people, they can soon forget Iraq's aggression, but they can't forget Saddam's "heroic acts" such as challenging the United States and Israel and launching Scud missiles at Israel. Second, Saddam Hussein's years of iron rice bowl rule made the opposition in Iraq weak, thus ensuring Saddam's effective control of the domestic situation. Third, Saddam adopted a high-handed policy, which quickly quelled the rebellion between the north and the south of the country after the Gulf War and stabilized the situation.
Weapons inspection The United Nations weapons inspection in Iraq began with Resolution 687 adopted by the United Nations Security Council in April. The resolution decided to verify, register, destroy and destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, including biological, chemical, nuclear and missiles with a range exceeding 150 km, as well as research, production, storage and test facilities for these weapons. The resolution also decided to set up a United Nations special committee to take charge of this work. According to the relevant resolutions of the Security Council, the economic sanctions and embargo imposed by the United Nations on Iraq can only be lifted after the UNSCOM completes its weapons inspection and submits a report to the Security Council, which clearly shows that Iraq has completely and completely destroyed its weapons of mass destruction.
Saddam Hussein and the inspectors launched a contest of "wits and wits": on the one hand, they provided cooperation, admitted and destroyed a large number of biochemical and nuclear raw materials, equipment and missiles, and hoped that the inspection would end as soon as possible and the economic sanctions against Iraq would be lifted as soon as possible; On the other hand, they tried to hide some weapons and raw materials, set obstacles for inspectors, and tried to end the inspection as soon as possible.
1991September 2 1 day, inspectors who just started the inspection found a large number of confidential documents about Iraq's nuclear weapons program in a building in Baghdad. When the inspectors were ready to leave with the documents, Iraqi officials who claimed to be "fully cooperative" forcibly confiscated some documents, while the Iraqi military sent armed soldiers in a parking lot to stop the inspectors who refused to hand over the documents. The confrontation lasted four days. It was not until the Security Council adopted a presidential statement announcing that members of the Security Council would take "further action" if Iraq refused to cooperate that Iraq lifted the siege on the inspectors.
Nevertheless, in the years from 65438 to the beginning of 0995, the verification work has been progressing smoothly and achieved remarkable results. Ekeus, the first chairman of the United Nations Special Commission, later said that by 1994, after three years of verification, United Nations staff had taken control of Iraq's nuclear and missile programs, but Saddam's chemical and biological weapons programs still yielded nothing.
Since May 1992, Iraq has submitted weapons reports to the Security Council in accordance with the requirements of the United Nations. By the time the UNSCOM inspection was suspended in June, about 10 reports had been submitted. The conclusion of each report is that "all weapons of mass destruction have been fully, thoroughly and thoroughly announced and destroyed", but
At the beginning of 1995, a breakthrough was made in the verification of chemical and biological weapons. In February of that year, UN biologists were in al? A large amount of barreled powder called "growth enzyme" was found in a factory in Hakim. This biological agent can be used to make protein, but it can also be used to make biological weapons. Richmond, who participated in this verification? Dr. Qi Lin Kass said that if it is used to make protein, the whole of Iraq only needs 1 ton of growth enzyme at most every year, and at that time, Iraq imported 34 tons of growth enzyme at a time. The inspectors finally concluded that this factory is likely to be engaged in mass production of anthrax virus.
Ekeus, chairman of UNSCOM, demanded an explanation. The answer is: "We are not like you Europeans. You must always have a plan and determine the purpose before production. We Arab countries make something first and then consider what to do with it. "
In August of that year, Saddam's son-in-law Hussein? Kamal? Hassan defected from the country and confirmed to the UN inspectors in Jordan that Al? In addition, all the evidence about the conditions of the Al-Hakim factory provides new information about Iraq's biochemistry, nuclear weapons and missiles, which the United Nations previously thought had been destroyed.
In the face of evidence, Iraq finally admitted to producing more than 8,000 liters of anthrax spores and 1.9 million liters of botulinum toxin, but claimed that it was not loaded on any warheads.
Since the second half of 1995, there have been frequent open conflicts between UNSCOM and Iraq, and Iraq has repeatedly publicly denied United Nations inspectors access to some sites. Since 1996, the Security Council has repeatedly condemned Iraq for violating UN resolutions. 1June 1997, Ekeus announced his resignation. It is said that Butler, an Australian with a pro-American stance, took office in July of that year and took over as the chairman of UNSCOM.
If Ekeus was able to get along with the Iraqi side normally during his tenure, the tension between UNSCOM and Iraq intensified after Butler took office, which eventually led to Butler's departure and the inspection had to be stopped. There are two main reasons: first, the Iraqi side believes that Butler only knows how to criticize and does not want Iraq to pass the inspection; Second, the Iraqi side believes that the special commission led by Butler has become a tool for American and British spies, posing a serious threat to Iraq's "national security".
1In April 1995, Ekeus, Chairman of UNSCOM, pointed out in his report to the United Nations: "The inspection and destruction of Iraqi weapons have been basically completed, and Iraq no longer has the ability to manufacture weapons of mass destruction." By the end of 1996, the Iraqi government believed that the inspection work could basically be concluded and the lifting of the United Nations sanctions against Iraq was in sight. However, in the middle of 1997 10, Butler submitted a report to the United Nations Security Council, which not only failed to mention Iraq's efforts to implement the resolutions of the Security Council after the Gulf War, but accused Iraq of still concealing the destruction of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and repeatedly obstructed the normal work of the weapons inspection team, even threatening the safety of the team staff.
Since then, at the urging of the United States and Britain, the United Nations Security Council has adopted resolution 1 134, demanding that Iraq strictly abide by all United Nations resolutions and hand over all "final and complete" information on weapons of mass destruction as soon as possible, otherwise new sanctions will be imposed on Iraq. This resolution is like a blow to once hopeful Iraq. Iraq accused the resolution of being made under the pressure of the United States. Iraq refused to accept the resolution and took measures to confront the inspection.
From 65438 to 0998, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan went to Iraq to mediate and reached an understanding, but the conflict between Iraq and UNSCOM led by Butler continued to escalate. 1In August 1998, Iraq announced that it would suspend its cooperation with the UN inspectors, and all other weapons inspections stopped except the IAEA's continued monitoring mission. In this case, Butler ordered all inspectors and other humanitarian relief workers to evacuate more than 300 people from Baghdad in the middle of 10. 12 17, the United States and Britain launched an air strike code-named "Desert Fox" against Iraq on the grounds that Iraq obstructed inspections, concealed suspicious information and made things difficult for inspectors, in flagrant violation of United Nations resolutions. 19, Iraq announced that UNSCOM would never return to Iraq.
According to statistics, from 199 1 to the end of 1998, more than 200 UN weapons inspection teams conducted more than 400 investigations in more than 2,500 locations in Iraq. Weapons of mass destruction destroyed include more than 40,000 chemical munitions, nearly 500,000 liters of chemicals, 6,543,800,000 liters of chemicals used to manufacture these chemicals, and seven delivery systems including ballistic missile warheads. Experts estimate that seven years of weapons inspection have disarmed 95% of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
In addition, the Security Council adopted resolution 1284 in February 1999, and decided to establish the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission to continue to carry out the verification tasks of the United Nations Special Commission. On June 5438+ 10, 2000, Swede Blix, who was the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and participated in the weapons inspection in Iraq, was appointed as the chairman of UNMOVIC. On June 8, 2002, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 144 1, and put forward various provisions to strengthen weapons inspection.
On June 27th, 2002, 1 1, the first batch of 17 inspectors started their work, and Iraq's weapons inspection resumed after four years of dust. Whether the verification can be carried out smoothly is related to the attitude of the verifier and the verified party, but what ultimately plays a decisive role is the conflict of interests and the balance of power in international relations. For the needs of political and economic interests, the United States takes launching the war against Iraq, overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime and realizing full control of Iraq as its established goal, and wants to carry out military strikes and military occupation on Iraq on this basis. Europe and Russia, out of the need to safeguard their interests in Iraq and their dissatisfaction with American unilateralism, hope that the Iraq issue can be resolved peacefully. Resolution 144 1 is essentially the result of the competition and mutual compromise between the interests and strength of major powers in the international political arena, and Iraq's weapons inspection is only its continuation. This background of international relations is an important factor affecting the progress of verification.
The reason why the United States insists on "selling Saudi Arabia": After the Gulf War, the Iraq issue has been a lingering topic in American political diplomacy. The United States insists on "selling Saskatchewan" for both political reasons and strategic schemes. After the United States succeeded in the battlefield in Afghanistan in early June last year 165438+ 10, it even targeted Iraq for the next military strike, and secretly stepped up all aspects of propaganda and preparation. Politically, the Bush administration has thrown out the "axis of evil" theory and the "preemptive strike" theory; Diplomatically, he sent the vice president and deputy defense minister to visit the Middle East to lobby. Militarily, the Bush administration stepped up consultations with the Iraqi opposition, studied and formulated a plan for fighting Iraq, and began to send more troops to the periphery of Iraq. The United States is actively preparing to attack Iraq. There are many considerations behind it.
(a) Divert domestic attention and seek political interests. After Bush was elected president, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party were evenly matched, and the seats in both houses of Congress were quite close. Faced with the severe challenge of American economic recession and the strong restraint of the Democratic Party, the Bush administration has made no achievements in solving domestic problems since it took office, and it is difficult to make a difference in the short term. The "9. 1 1 incident" just provided the Bush administration with an opportunity to avoid intractable domestic problems and expand its political influence. The war on terror raised the popularity of the Republican Party and won more seats in the US mid-term elections held in June 2002 165438+ 10. After the dust of the war in Afghanistan has settled, the Bush administration is faced with the challenge of choosing a political "hype point" to maintain and expand its political prestige. The United States has relatively few differences on the Iraq issue, and it is easy to make a difference in the short term. At the same time, waging war and controlling Iraq are also important means to safeguard the interests of American arms industry group and oil consortium represented by Republican government. Therefore, the Bush administration's insistence on "profiteering" has become a logical choice.
(2) End the Iraq issue and unload the diplomatic burden. Since the end of the Gulf War, the United States has always adhered to the containment policy against Iraq and tried to destroy Saddam Hussein's regime. But it backfired. Instead of shaking the rule of Saddam Hussein's regime, sanctions have attracted unanimous accusations from the international community that sanctions have caused a humanitarian disaster. Facts show that the strategy of "promoting change through sanctions" adopted by the United States against Iraq is not effective, and the Iraq issue has not been resolved for a long time, which has become a contradiction focus between the United States and the international community and an increasingly heavy burden on American diplomacy. The determination of the United States to "rebel Saddam Hussein" shows that overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime by force, ending the Iraq problem left over by the Gulf War and ensuring that American companies get the greatest economic benefits in Iraq have become a new idea for the United States to solve the Iraq problem.
(3) Control oil supply and expand strategic advantages. The Middle East is the main source of international oil supply. Iraq is rich in oil resources, second only to Saudi Arabia, and has great development potential. It is of great strategic significance for the United States to gain control of Iraq's oil resources. First, it is conducive to further restricting strategic opponents who rely on international energy supply. Second, it is conducive to further weakening the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on the international oil market, dissolving the efforts of OPEC members to limit production and promote prices, and ensuring the safety and price control of the international oil supply by the United States. Thirdly, it created a great opportunity for American oil companies to return to the Middle East after the climax of oil nationalization in the 1970s. Since the 1990s, Saddam has repeatedly declared that he wants to use oil as a weapon to oppose American hegemony, which makes the United States bear a grudge. It is an inevitable choice for the United States to expand its international strategic advantage and consolidate its world hegemony to get rid of Saddam Hussein's regime and further put the international oil supply sources under the control of the pro-American regime or even under the direct military protection of the United States.
(4) Foster the pro-American regime and weaken the anti-American forces. Anti-American forces in the Middle East have been very active. Since 200 1 Bush came to power, this anti-American sentiment has further increased. Bush once admitted that the "911incident" was rooted in Palestine. Saudi Arabia, the traditional ally of the United States, also has a group of people suspected of participating in the "911incident", which even shocked the United States. In addition, in 2000, despite repeated persuasion from the United States, Saudi Arabia jointly initiated oil production restriction and price increase with Iran and Venezuela, and has persisted ever since. However, the United States did not realize that anti-American sentiment in the Middle East was largely related to its Middle East policy. On the contrary, there has recently been an argument in the ruling and opposition circles in the United States that this phenomenon is attributed to the centralized political system of some countries in the Middle East and the ineffective crackdown by the former US government, and further believes that only by "integrating" such countries and making them accept American-style "liberal democratic values" and political systems can anti-American sentiments and terrorist activities be prevented. To this end, US Secretary of State Powell put forward the "American Middle East Partnership Plan" on June 5 +2, 2002, including political reform in Middle East countries. The U.S. government insisted on overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime and fostering a pro-American regime with a western-style democratic political system in Iraq, just to implement this plan and establish a so-called "democratic model" in Arab countries.
The outbreak of the Iraq war: On March 20th, 2003, the Iraq war broke out. This is a brand-new modern war in 2 1 century. On May 2, US President Bush officially declared the end of the Iraq war aboard the USS Lincoln. The whole war lasted for 44 days. In fact, the large-scale military operations of the US military basically ended in April 14 after the US military captured tikrit, the hometown of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. This war is the second American war against Iraq after 199 1 Gulf War. Compared with the number of American casualties 199 1 during the Gulf War, the Iraq war, which basically ended, has two major characteristics: the number of casualties in the ground war has greatly increased, while the number of plane crashes and friendly accidental injuries has obviously decreased.
The reason why the US military achieved "low casualties" in the Iraq war was mainly because the Pentagon emphasized the important role of the Air Force in formulating its operational plan and avoided urban street fighting. Although the number of American troops sent this time is small, their advanced equipment and training level have formed an overwhelming advantage for the Iraqi army, thus ensuring the smooth end of the whole war. The Iraq war shows the new strategic thinking and theory of the US military. It was the first war that the United States implemented the "preemptive strike" strategy, and it was also launched by the United States.
A large-scale United and integrated war to occupy a country slightly. Compared with a series of wars launched by the United States in recent years, this war presents some distinct strategic characteristics. One is to seek absolute military purposes; The second is to test the power of information warfare; The third is to practice the new war theory; The fourth is the asymmetric war situation caused; The fifth is to explore the comprehensive effectiveness of tactics.
The influence of the Iraq war on the world pattern and the Middle East: (1) The trend of multipolarization is still in the process of quantitative change, and the trend is increasing. On the one hand, relying on its superior economic and military strength, the United States has forcibly achieved the goal of "selling pizza" regardless of the opposition of other big countries, thus proving that the world pattern of "one super and many strong" has not fundamentally changed. On the other hand, American hegemonism is facing the most severe challenge since the end of the Cold War, which mainly comes from its western allies. The differences of interests and diplomatic independence among France, Germany, Russia and the United States on the Iraq issue are more obvious. NATO is no longer a means that the United States can use at will, and the authority of the United Nations is once again safeguarded by most countries. The argument that the United States directly links "anti-terrorism" with "anti-terrorism" is unconvincing and has few followers. The contest among the major powers around Iraq shows that the resistance of the United States in ignoring the interests of other major powers and pursuing power politics and unilateralism has increased, and the quantitative change process of multipolarization of the world pattern is continuing and the trend is strengthening.
(2) The international oil price, which has remained high for many years, may decline. Since 2000, the international oil price has remained high for a long time for many reasons. From the supply side, it is not only the result of joint production restriction and price increase by major oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela, but also the result of psychological panic and speculative capital speculation caused by political factors such as anti-terrorism, "anti-pizza" and Venezuela strike. There is no real shortage of international oil supply capacity. Stimulated by years of high oil prices, Russia and other non-OPEC countries have significantly improved their oil production and export capabilities. At present, the strike in Venezuela has gradually subsided. After the Iraq issue is resolved, oil speculators will lose another "speculative point". Iraq's oil production will also increase gradually. From the demand side, the world economic recession has obviously reduced the growth rate of world oil demand, from the average annual growth rate of 1.4% in the 1990s to the average annual growth rate of 0.4% in 2006, 5438+0 and 2002, and there is still no possibility of substantial growth in 2003. Under this supply and demand situation, the situation of international oil supply exceeding demand will become more obvious, the role of market forces on oil prices will become more obvious, and the market share competition between OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries will become more intense. As long as the oil fields in the Middle East are not destroyed on a large scale in the process of "dumping", the pressure of falling international oil prices will obviously increase and lead to the decline of international oil prices.
(3) The situation in the Middle East may have eased, but it is difficult to stabilize. After the "rebellion", in order to prevent unrest and division in Iraq, the United States may exercise some form of military control over Iraq directly or with the help of international forces. Faced with a fait accompli, governments in the Middle East may take a realistic stance and avoid confrontation with the United States. However, there may also be some anti-American sentiment in the public level in the Middle East, and the possibility of radical forces attacking American interests cannot be ruled out.
(4) After realizing the "rebellion", the United States will shift its focus to the political and economic reconstruction of Iraq, and it is unlikely to use force against other Middle Eastern countries immediately. It is also unrealistic to ask other Arab countries to adopt western-style democracy immediately. American oil consortium will return to Iraq. Political reconstruction may adopt the "Afghan model", but federalism may also become a political system choice to meet the demands of Kurds and Islamic Shiites for autonomy. However, the Iraqi opposition struggles for power and profits, and the ethnic contradictions between Kurds and Arabs are deep. The sectarian differences between Shiites and Sunnis in Islam will not only erupt in the process of political reconstruction, but also become a long-term factor affecting Iraq's political stability, and may even affect Iraq's relations with its neighbors. American troops may be stationed in Iraq for a long time.
(v) The Palestinian question concerns the interests and feelings of the Arab nation. After the "rebellion", in order to maintain its political influence in the Middle East and weaken the anti-American sentiment in Arab countries, the United States has to intensify its efforts to resume the Middle East peace process, and may urge the two sides to resume peace talks on the basis of the "road map" plan jointly proposed by the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia, thus easing the violent conflict between Palestine and Israel. However, due to the complexity of the key issues involved in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, such as Jerusalem, Jewish settlements and Palestinian refugees, it is very difficult to solve these problems. So far, there is no feasible plan, so it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the Middle East peace process in the short term, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will continue.
(6) The damage of the US-Iraq war to traditional security factors and international jurisprudence. In attacking Iraq, the United States essentially bypassed the United Nations and acted alone with its allies, which will once again weaken the influence and rights of the United Nations in maintaining world peace. In the long run, the United Nations will gradually be shelved and lose its position in international affairs. This will also directly affect the rights and status of other big countries. After the war, the global expansion of American hegemony will become increasingly obvious.