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A century-old trend chart of the United States

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First, the "eating" of the Great Depression in the 1930s refers to the "accumulation" of 33 years.

On May 26th 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia) made a difficult start from 40.94. After more than 30 years of ups and downs, the Dow Jones index has slowly "grown". On September 3rd 1929, the Dow closed at an all-time high of 38 1. In the meantime, the American stock market experienced three "favorable" stages: American overseas military expansion, World War I and Coolidge prosperity, which was also an important turning point for the United States to move towards world hegemony. Therefore, at this stage, the US stock market has a pleasant journey, from 40 to nearly 400, and the Dow has gone for 33 years.

No matter how extreme it is, happiness is extremely sad. Just as the American people are immersed in prosperity and happiness, it is difficult to extricate themselves. A great crisis rarely seen in history is quietly approaching the American people. 1Monday, October 28th, 1929, shortly after the opening of the morning session, the Dow plunged, closing at 260 points that day, with a daily decline of 12.82%. This is the frightened "Black Monday" of Americans. This was the fuse that started the Great Depression in the 1930s.

The next day (65438+1October 29th), the Dow closed down again 1 1.73% to close at 230 points. Subsequently, with the Great Depression of 1929- 1933, the Dow continued to fall until it closed at 43: 00 on June 30, 1932.

From 40 o'clock, it rose to around 400 points in 33 years, and then it took only two and a half years to fall to the "origin". Later generations also called it "the stock market crash". The stock market crash and the Great Depression made the rich Americans "poor" almost overnight. Now that I think about it, it seems like a dream.

Second, recast the cornerstone: 40 years later, the Dow broke through 1000 points.

After the Great Depression in 1930s, Americans woke up from the blind self-confidence of laissez-faire and re-examined the necessary legal system and macro-control. As the saying goes, "once bitten, twice shy." The unforgettable "pain" of the Great Depression has led Americans to the other extreme: the strictest regulation of the financial industry, including strengthening financial legislation, separate operation, interest rate control, deposit insurance and other measures. Advantages: Strict control of high-risk financial industries, especially the securities market, is conducive to curbing financial speculation, suppressing financial bubbles, consolidating financial order, and effectively controlling financial risks.

On the other hand, the successful implementation of Roosevelt's New Deal and the United States profited from it in the Second World War made the United States a real and absolute world hegemon, and its economic strength and military strength increased simultaneously. Since the early 1950s, the American economy has completely walked out of the shadow of the Great Depression, and then entered the "golden age" of the development of capitalist countries in the world in the 1960s.

With the improvement of American economy, the Dow Jones index, as an economic barometer, is also rising. On May 1956, the Dow broke through the 500-point mark for the first time. Since the birth of the Dow, from 40 to 500, the Dow has gone through 60 years. These 60 years should be regarded as the 60 years of Dow's suffering, which has experienced ups and downs, from birth to death, and then to rebirth. This tortuous process has also taught Americans how to look at speculation and how to be responsible for their own speculation. Of course, the most important thing is that it introduces the American stock market into a strict "rule of law".

Golden decade in 1960s pushed the American economy to a new climax. The mark of the climax is1972165438+10/4, and the Dow broke through 1000 for the first time. This is the first "thousand points" of the Dow. If we count from 43 o'clock in the Great Depression, it took 40 years to cross its first "thousand-point" mark. It took 76 years for the Dow to conquer the 1000 mark. It can be seen that the cornerstone of this thousand points is indeed solid enough.

However, the periodic fluctuation law of economy is the inevitable law of market economy. After World War II, the American economy experienced rapid growth for more than 20 years, and the economic bubble and inflation accumulated to a considerable extent. It's time to stop and catch my breath, so since the early 1970s, the American economy has entered an unprecedented stagflation period. High inflation is accompanied by high unemployment and the economy is stagnant. In the mid-1970s, the interest rate in the United States was as high as 15%. To this end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has just reached a thousand points, is facing a huge crash test. 1974 ended and 1975 began. The Dow once plunged above 550 points, almost eating up the achievements since 1956. Fortunately, since the Great Depression, the American stock market has been under strict control, and bubbles and risks can be quickly and smoothly resolved.

1976 closed, and the Dow returned above 1000. However, because the American economy did not really improve, the Dow Jones index quickly returned to below 1000. 1977- 1982 In the past five years, the Dow has always been above 800 points and below 1000 points. From 1972- 1982 to 10, except for a brief decline at the corners of 1974 and 1975, all the other times kept running above 800 points, which should once again prove that the US stock market is under strict "rule of law".

Third, the second "Black Monday" test Dow: narrowly missed.

From 65438 to 0982, the American economy gradually stepped out of the shadow of stagflation, and the national economic prosperity index began to rise. At the end of the year, the Dow stood firmly at the 1000 mark again. At the end of 1985, the Dow broke through 1500 for the first time. From 1000 to 1500, Dow used 13 years. Then it continued to soar,1987 65438+1October 8, and the Dow broke through the 2000 mark for the first time.

1987 65438+1October19 is another "black Monday", when the Dow plunged 508 points, with a daily decline of 22.6 1%. The Dow Jones index closed at 1738.74 compared with the previous day's close. This day's decline was the second highest in history. This "stock crash" in the United States also triggered a simultaneous plunge in global stock markets. But at the end of that year, the Dow stood at 2000 points again.

The lucky escape of this stock market crash should be mainly attributed to three factors:

First, the rapid recovery and growth of the American economy and the improvement of the international economic situation.

Second, the effect of pre-supervision of American stock market; It took 76 years for the Dow to "bottom out" below 1000, and its solid foundation was one of the important reasons why the American stock market building did not fall down later. After the Dow broke through 1000, only two retracements were recorded. 1500 points passed at one time without any repetition; There were only two short repetitions at 2000 at 1987 and 1988. This is a sign of the "maturity" of the American stock market, and it is also a low-risk performance of the American stock market.

Third, the strength of listed companies in the US stock market (including first-class companies from all over the world) is not what it used to be. First-class listed companies must have first-class investment value. Therefore, a large number of world-class listed companies are the mainstay of the American stock market, and their excellent investment value is enough to resolve the stock market bubble and speculative risk.

In the late 1980s, the Dow Jones index continued its upward trend. It should be said that the growth of the Dow and the American stock market is not only due to successful market supervision, but also because of the first-class listed companies and first-class investment value, so that investors and the stock market enjoy the prosperity and growth of the national economy.

Fourth, the sustained growth of the "new economy" will send the Dow up the channel.

Since the early 1990s, driven by the "Internet Age+Knowledge Economy", the American economy has entered a sustained growth of more than 65,438+000 months, which is a rare "long-period" economic growth in history. With the rise of American economy, after the inertia in the late 1980s, the Dow continued to make efforts to clear customs.

1991April 17, the Dow broke 3000 points;

February 23 1995, the Dow broke 4000 points;

1995165438+1October 2 1, the Dow broke 5000 points;

199665438+1October 14, the Dow broke 6000 points;

1February 997 13, the Dow broke 7000 points;

1July 997 16, the Dow broke 8000 points;

April 6 1998, the Dow broke 9000 points;

On March 29th 1999, the Dow broke through the 10000 mark for the first time.

On June 65438+1October 65438+April 2000, the Dow hit a record high of 1 1723.

Before "9 1 1" appeared at 200 1, the Dow rose all the way from 3000 to 10000, and all the "thousand-point" integer barriers in the middle passed at one time, with almost no repetition. It's like building a house. If the cornerstone is unstable, the house will not be built high and unstable. If it is not good, it will be "torn down and started again", or it will lead to "tofu residue" project. On the contrary, as long as the foundation stone is compacted firmly, the building will be built faster and the building will have more quality.

Although the American stock market has been rising with the economy for more than 100 months, and it seems to feel the bubble, its rise has gone too far. As a result, the normal technical callback began. The Dow continued to pass through 1 1000 and 10000, reaching 972 1 on March 20, 2006. Just as the technical correction of US stocks reached a critical point, the most unbelievable event happened to Americans, that is, the "9 1 1" terrorist attack in the United States on September 20, 2006. "9 1 1" not only surprised Americans, but also shocked the world. Global stock markets are also in a panic.

Under this special background, the US stock market changed from a "technical correction" to a "panic decline". After "9 1 1", the Dow quickly broke through 9000 points for the first time, approaching the 8000-point mark. On September 2 1 day, the Dow fell to 8236 points.

At the end of 200 1, with the complete victory of the American war against the Taliban in Afghanistan, the stock market sentiment began to gather again. On March 9, 2002, the Dow rose to 10000, reaching 10635. However, due to the obvious economic recession in the United States, especially in the second quarter of 2002, the downward trend of the economy is more obvious. As a result, from the second half of 2002 to the beginning of 2003, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 8000 points three times. However, with the gradual recovery of the American economy, the Dow quickly recovered 10000 at the end of 2003 and pushed it to 1 1000 again at the end of 2005. On May 9, 2006, it closed at 1 1640, just one step away from the historical high 1 1723.

This is the American stock market, a worldwide and global stock market! Its development has gone through more than 200 years. Its growth is by no means "sudden", let alone "overnight fame". It is precisely because of this that the Dow can grow up step by step. Obviously it can "grow" from 40 points to today's 10000 points. This is by no means a day's work. Therefore, the growth of the stock market can not be quick success and instant benefit, but one step at a time, that is, it is responsible for future generations.

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It seems very difficult to get a graph of logarithmic coordinates and percentages, because even the K-line graph on Wenhua Financial Futures Software seems to only keep 1990, and the Dow Jones index is about 1989.