Is Russia dormant or declining in these 20 years? This was originally a national development problem facing Putin, but now it has become the uncertainty of the world economy.
With the ups and downs of these 20 years, Putin has merged into Russia's national image from a political figure and become a cultural business card of contemporary Russia.
At present, Russia has almost no light industry, low fertility rate and backward high-tech industry, and is already a failed country economically. Except Moscow, the average wage in other parts of Russia is only about 2000 RMB per month.
However, Russia's failure reveals Putin's success.
This is the view put forward by German journalist harbert Seipel in Putin: The Logic of Power.
If we pull the lens of history forward, we can go back to 2000.
Acting President Putin, who stood in Red Square to greet the New Year bell, fell into unprecedented chaos.
His predecessor, Yeltsin, was in power for eight years. Although the economic transformation established the basic framework of the market economy system, it caused a serious economic recession. During the eight years from 1992 to 1999, there was negative growth in all six years, and the accumulated GDP decreased by 40%.
The polarization between the rich and the poor caused by its reform is even more shocking, even turning the country into an oligopoly raw material factory. Even Bogomoloff, a scholar who supported Yeltsin, commented: Economically, we are on a road leading to disaster.
At that time, Russia was in danger of becoming a second-rate country or even a third-rate country in the world. Poverty is the number one problem in this country.
In Putin's slogan, poverty is described as a national shame, and he wants the country to return to economic dignity.
"Russia has no time to wander around." He said so.
And this sentence is shocking.
From 2000 to 2007, Putin was the first two presidents.
These eight years are the best period of economic development since Russia's transition. In the past eight years, the average annual growth rate of Russian GDP was 6.9%, exceeding the average growth rate of the world economy.
More importantly, Russia has greatly narrowed the gap between the rich and the poor. 1999, the average monthly salary of employees is $64, and the pension is only 16. In 2003, these two indicators increased to 180 and $60 respectively.
In the State of the Union address in 2007, Russia declared: "Russia has not only completely passed the long period of output decline, but also entered the ranks of the top ten economies in the world."
Undeniably, the economic growth in these eight years has something to do with the rising international energy market, and even laid the foundation for Russia's energy dependence. During this period, the Russian economic curve is like copying the international crude oil price curve. The price of crude oil rose from $65,438+15.9 in 1999 to $64.28 in 2007, and the average price in 2008 was as high as $90.68. However, does the economic growth in these eight years really depend only on oil prices?
What needs to be pointed out in particular is that economic growth is a system, and a single variable can bring some extraordinary performance of economic data, but from a macro perspective-
Let's take a look at what Putin has done in terms of mechanism kinetic energy and state power.
On the one hand, Putin promoted the reform of market economy and continued Yeltsin's economic thought.
You know, from 65438 to 0999, Yeltsin handed over power only after gaining immunity. He asked for exemption because his own ruling line has lost the hearts of the people.
In other words, Putin recognized the institutional kinetic energy of the market economy, and the route was not wrong, but the implementation was frustrated.
On the other hand, it is implementation, that is, the development of national strength.
Putin, who is in his prime, shows the skill and courage of a politician-
Oligarch, the moth of this country, is the primary target. The oligarchs thought they helped the second Yeltsin, but Putin gave them a blow.
On July 28, 2000, Putin called a meeting of more than 30 oligarchs in the Kremlin, which included three chapters: abiding by the law, paying taxes according to law and not getting involved in politics.
Later, with the help of the KGB and the army, he cleaned the disobedient oligarchs and realized the state's control over the economic lifeline. State power regained control of the economic field.
Putin is far-sighted, and he clearly realizes that where state regulation is needed, there must be state regulation; Where freedom is needed, there must be freedom.
Notably, he opposed renationalization. This also reveals Putin's personality characteristics: he is not Communist party member, but everything is practical.
At the same time, he corrected the rhythm of change and replaced mutation with gradual, gradual and prudent methods. He promoted tax reform and banking reform to get rid of financial malpractice, and also formulated income policy through state power, adjusted resource allocation and narrowed the gap between the rich and the poor.
It is particularly noteworthy that he formulated an economic plan for 15-20 years from a strategic perspective, which brought the promotion of state power to the extreme.
This is also the Russian version of the "five-year plan". In the planning, Putin put the booming Internet economy at the core.
In 2008, it was the highlight moment of Putin. Russia was successful in this period, and so was Putin, who led Russia.
But it flourished and declined, and 2008 became the turning point of Russian economy.
This year, Putin stepped down as president, and once Medvedev came to power, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States. Russia, deeply integrated into the world economy, suffered a major blow.
In 2009, Russia experienced its first negative economic growth since 2000, and its GDP dropped by 7.9% year-on-year. In the following years, the growth rate was also low. However, this failure is not unique to Russia, but common to the whole world.
2008 to 20 12 is the darkest moment of Russian economy in the new century. Although Putin is still regarded as a Russian lover abroad, people in Russia believe that Putin's departure has led to the decline of Russia.
Russia failed, but Putin once again "proved" his importance. In other words, Russia's failure is precisely Putin's success.
Four years later, Putin was re-elected without any surprise.
Two years later, Russia suffered another economic failure, and Putin once again achieved great success.
In 20 14, Russia merged with Crimea, Ukraine.
Then came the tragedy of the Russian economy. After that, Russia was subjected to economic sanctions by western countries led by the United States. In that year, GDP growth was only 0.7%, and even negative growth in 20 15 years.
The real economic winter is still in the currency. The Russian currency ruble depreciated sharply, once falling to a quarter.
Russia's total economic output has shrunk from $2.29 trillion at the peak in 20 13 to $ 1.69 trillion in 20 19, and its ranking has dropped from sixth place to 1 1.
However, in the eyes of the Russian people, this is a historic diplomatic breakthrough. The Russian media hailed it as the Great Patriotic War without artillery fire, and the way people participated in the war was to sacrifice their economic interests.
Under the influence of nationalism and chauvinism, Russian citizens are encouraged instead of complaining about economic losses. Putin is also regarded as a great country and national hero.
As a result, Putin wrote himself from a political figure into the national image of Russia. He is not only a * * *, but also a spokesman for the country. He brought back his native land, and he succeeded.
From 2000 to now, after three historical stages, Russia's economy finally failed, but Putin himself, in the history of Russia, has been writing success.
But can we say that Putin sacrificed national interests for personal interests? It's not fair. Because economy is a quantifiable national value, and besides economy, there are also unmeasurable national values, such as national spirit and national will.
These are the values that Putin embodies. In the subsequent historical process, perhaps, generate will generate unprecedented energy, even exceeding the economic value, which is unknown.