Looking at the price trend of non-ferrous metals in the international market in the past 30 years, we can see that the price of non-ferrous metals has fluctuated at a high level for a long time, with three sharp rises since 1982, namely 1988, 1996 and 2004, that is, the price of non-ferrous metals has experienced a sharp rise every eight years or so, especially since 2004. In recent years, wide fluctuation has become a new feature of its trend.
1. 1.988 The price of non-ferrous metals rose in a breakthrough. From 1984 to 1988, the supply of nonferrous metals represented by copper has been in short supply for five consecutive years. At the end of 1987, there were strikes in Peru and Canada, and problems occurred in copper production in Chile and Zambia. At the end of 1987, the worldwide inventory fell sharply, driving the price of non-ferrous metals represented by copper to break through. The spot price of copper in London market reached an unprecedented peak of $3,562/ton at19881February/2. 1988 copper prices rose by 45% over the previous year. The average annual prices of lead and nickel are 8 13 and 14256 respectively. The price of aluminum and zinc once rose to $ t4290 and $660 per ton, and the price of tin soared to $8 149.69.
2. 1995~ 1996 The price of non-ferrous metals rose. In the 1990s, the major industrial countries in the west experienced economic recession. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the economies of CIS member countries deteriorated, the import and export trade was in disorder, and illegal exporters sold a large number of non-ferrous metals cheaply, which hit the international market. The price of non-ferrous metals in the international market fell for four consecutive years. Since 1994, the world economy has got rid of the situation of hovering around 2% for three consecutive years, and the growth rate has increased to over 3%. With the sharp rise of grain price and the rise of crude oil price from 16 USD/barrel to 2 1 USD/barrel, the prices of non-ferrous metals have risen moderately, and the prices of six metals have all reached stage highs, among which the copper price has increased by 27% annually compared with the previous year.
3. From 2004 to 2006, the price of non-ferrous metals rose sharply. In 2004, the world economy recovered strongly from the "9. 1 1" incident. With crude oil prices hitting record highs and international food prices rising sharply, the price of non-ferrous metals in the international market continued to rise sharply from the beginning of 2004 and reached a record high in mid-2006. From 2004 to 2006, the annual increase of copper price reached 6 1%, 28% and 83% respectively. In the following two years, the prices of six basic metals continued to hover at this high level. During this period, the prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel reached the historical peak of $8,900, $3,272, $3,989, $4,570, $2,533/kloc-0 and $54,025 per ton respectively.
Since the second half of 2008, the global financial crisis has spread, economic growth has been limited, and the price of non-ferrous metals in the international market has plummeted. In half a year, the international copper price dropped from a historical high to $28 10, a drop of 68%, and the aluminum price fell to the lowest level in nearly 10 years. The prices of lead, zinc, tin and nickel respectively fell to the stage lows of 96 1, 1080, 10 165 and 9374, which were all lower than the prices of 1988, and fell by 75% and 76% respectively from the historical highs. In recent months, the price of non-ferrous metals has rebounded at a low level, but it is basically at the level of 2005 and 2006 (see figure 1).
Looking at these metal price fluctuations, the last two price increases occurred at the same time as the international food price and oil price increases, but the duration was different, longer than the food price and shorter than the oil price. Before 2004, the first two rises were obvious, but the decline was not rapid. Compared with other commodities such as grain and steel, the fluctuation range of metal prices is similar. Since 2004, both the daily transaction price and the annual transaction price have increased obviously, and wide fluctuation has become a new feature of its trend. Non-ferrous metals, like crude oil, have become the new commodities most prone to "roller coaster" market. The fluctuation of metal prices, especially copper prices, has become an important reference index for the market to judge economic development and changes. Main reasons affecting the price change of non-ferrous metals
In recent decades, the supply and demand of international nonferrous metals market have changed frequently, especially since 2004, with the gradual development of futures market and the abundance of capital market, the uncertain factors affecting metal prices are increasing day by day. Generally speaking, the price of non-ferrous metals is mainly affected by the following factors:
1. The relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental factor affecting the price fluctuation of non-ferrous metals.
Price and supply and demand interact and change circularly. When the price rises, the supply will increase, and when the supply reaches a certain level, it will push the price down. 1988 the price of non-ferrous metals rose by a breakthrough. Because of the strike wave of workers in Peru and Canada, the copper production in Chile and Zambia is insufficient, and the global copper supply gap reaches 17000 t. However, with the increase of global production capacity, the copper supply of 1989 and 1990 exceeds 275000 t and 5 1.5. 1994 The global economy is improving. The demand for copper increased by 2. 1%, while the demand for aluminum, lead and zinc increased by about 3%, resulting in supply shortages of 65,438+10,000 t, 1 1000 t and 70000 t, and the relationship between supply and demand reversed. In 2003-2005, the global average annual supply gap of copper reached 6.5438+0.25 million t, and the aluminum gap was 400,000-800,000 t for three consecutive years. The change of supply and demand is the root cause of price fluctuation.
As far as nonferrous metals are concerned, an important indicator reflecting the relationship between supply and demand is inventory. The tension between supply and demand is likely to lead to a decline in inventory; On the contrary, it will rise. Based on the data analysis of each trading day from 1998 to September 2009, the correlation coefficient between copper inventory and copper price in London Metal Exchange is -0.67. In 2948 statistical data, 57.6% of the trading days have reverse changes in inventory and prices, and the probabilities of reverse changes in inventory and prices of aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel are 56.2% and 55.3% respectively.
2. The price trend is closely related to economic growth.
Nonferrous metals are important industrial raw materials, and their demand is closely related to global economic development. Economic growth and increased demand drive up prices. The economic downturn and shrinking demand have driven prices down. Especially in recent years, economic changes in developing countries have a great influence on metal prices. By analyzing the relationship between the economic growth rate of developing countries and the copper price of London Metal Exchange from 1982 to 2008, the correlation coefficient between them reached 0.746, indicating that economic changes in developing countries have a great influence on the demand for non-ferrous metals, and economic development has a good correlation with international copper prices (see Figure 2).
3. There is a strong price correlation between the six basic metal products and the domestic and foreign markets, and the financial attribute of metal prices is obviously enhanced.
For a long time, the price trends of six basic metal products are closely related, especially copper and several other varieties. 1998 to August 2009, except for the relatively weak price relationship between zinc and tin, the correlation coefficients among other varieties were all above 0.7, while the correlation coefficients between copper prices and the prices of aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel in London market reached 0.944, 0.887, 0.873, 0.860 and 0.876, respectively, which were highly correlated.
At the same time, since China started copper and aluminum futures trading, the domestic price has been greatly influenced by the international market. According to statistics, at present, the correlation coefficient between copper prices of Shanghai Metal Exchange and London Metal Exchange is above 0.95, which is the combination with the strongest correlation and linkage at present, and the correlation coefficient of aluminum also reaches 0.90, so the two markets have strong correlation. Especially in recent years, it has become natural for the prices of the two markets to rise and fall together. The price of the London market exchange is internationally authoritative and dominates the pricing power of metals.
With the development of the futures market, the fund's participation in commodity futures trading has also greatly improved, and the proportion of institutional investors in the non-ferrous metal portfolio has greatly increased. The financial attributes of metal prices represented by copper have been significantly improved. Under the background that economic globalization has greatly improved capital mobility, this trend is irreversible. For example, the sharp rise and fall of copper prices since 2004 is not only driven by demand factors, but also an important factor to enlarge the fluctuation range of metal prices.
In addition, because the world metal price represented by the London Metal Exchange is denominated in US dollars, the metal price is greatly influenced by the change of US dollar exchange rate. Long-term trend analysis of non-ferrous metal prices in international market
In the long run, there is no commodity that only rises but does not fall, and there is no commodity that only falls but does not rise, and the same is true for basic metals. The long-term trend of non-ferrous metal prices will be mainly affected by the following factors.
1. Supply change will become a short-term factor affecting prices, and demand factor will become the main factor affecting medium and long-term prices.
Non-ferrous metals are resource products, but compared with crude oil and grain, non-ferrous metals are abundant and relatively widely distributed in the global market. For decades, except for 1988, which caused a breakthrough price increase due to the shortage of supply, there has never been a situation in which the continuous shortage of supply led to a sharp price increase. On the contrary, with the progress of science and technology and the development of mining technology, the supply has obviously increased and diversified.
For a long time, the supply of non-ferrous metals has experienced a cycle of price increase-production increase-price decrease-production decrease-price increase-production increase. However, due to the investment characteristics of the metal industry, the reduction in production is only a temporary compression of production capacity. At present, the utilization rate of global metal production capacity is about 70%~80%. As long as the demand increases, the production capacity will be released. In the long run, the output is increasing. In 2008, the global tin output was about 20,000 t (5%) lower than the demand, while the output of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel was 76%, 97%, 67%, 65% and 65,438+000 t(5% higher than the demand respectively. Partial supply interruption caused by wars and strikes in exporting countries will only push up prices in the short term, but it is difficult to have a long-term significant impact on global metal supply. The factors affecting the short-term trend of non-ferrous metal prices are complex, but the medium and long-term price fluctuations will mainly depend on the changes in demand.
2. The global economic development is the decisive factor to judge and decide the metal demand.
Among the factors affecting demand, the global economic situation is the decisive factor. Non-ferrous metals are the basic raw materials for the development of national economy in various countries, with wide application fields and high industrial correlation. Economic development affects transportation, real estate industry, aerospace industry, automobile industry and steel industry, and directly affects the demand for non-ferrous metals.
3. The law of periodic fluctuation of nonferrous metals will exist for a long time to come.
Economic fluctuations can affect prices through both supply and demand, but different varieties have different degrees of influence. For example, due to the existence of rigid demand, the output variables of food products are relatively small, and the fluctuation of international food prices is relatively independent of economic cycle changes. From the perspective of non-ferrous metals, as mentioned above, economic development determines the demand situation, while the latter dominates price changes. Therefore, the periodic change of economic growth has become the main reason that affects the periodic change of non-ferrous metal prices.
Global economic changes have their inherent laws. According to the famous economist Schumpeter's theory about the world economic cycle, the world economy has a long cycle every 60 years and a medium cycle every 7-8 years. The cyclical fluctuation of economy determines the change of metal demand. As long as the economic cycle exists, the periodic change of non-ferrous metal prices will continue, but its cycle may change. In fact, according to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the world copper price from 1957 to 1996, the international copper price runs for 84 months, that is, it rises once every seven years.
4. Pay attention to the influence of related commodities and stock markets on metal prices.
At present, the price fluctuation of oil, gold and other related commodities also has an impact on metals. Oil and copper are important industrial raw materials, while gold and copper are both metal commodities, so there is a certain correlation between the prices of oil and copper, and between gold and copper. Non-ferrous metal futures, especially copper futures trading, provide investors with new investment opportunities and become an effective tool for enterprise hedging. While the pricing power of metals in the futures market is gradually strengthened, the price influence between related varieties will be greater in the future.
A few years ago, the change of metal price in the futures market had little influence on the metal price index in the stock market, but in recent years, the correlation between them has gradually increased, which is mainly reflected in the fact that the value discovery function of the futures market has affected the prices of metal plates in the main stock markets. In the future, this one-way influence will be transformed into mutual influence. Both the stock market and the futures market are rooted in the change of funds. With the gradual increase of capital scale and the decrease of entry threshold of futures market in the future, it can be predicted that the value discovery function of stock market will be improved, and the change of metal price index will gradually affect the futures market, thus affecting the fluctuation of spot price.
Based on the above judgment, the influencing factors of metal prices in the future will be more complicated, economic development is the decisive factor, and its prices will still change periodically. policy advice
In recent years, China's non-ferrous metal industry has developed rapidly and has become the largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals in the world, playing an important role in economic construction, social development and stable employment. At the same time, the non-ferrous metal industry will also face more and more uncertain factors at home and abroad, and there are also problems such as the lack of pricing power and the increase of trade friction. Therefore, the following suggestions are put forward.
1. Continue to strengthen macro-control of the metal industry, improve the export environment, and keep the market price basically stable. At present, the global demand for non-ferrous metals is basically greater than the supply, especially in the context of the financial crisis. At present, China should strictly implement the adjustment and revitalization plan of non-ferrous metal industry announced by the State Council, control the total amount, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, promote enterprise restructuring and adjust the industrial layout. At the same time, we will implement a moderately flexible export tax policy, support the export of deep-processed products with high technical content and added value, and accelerate the transformation of export methods.
2. Be alert to the rhetoric of "China factor" and actively respond to foreign trade frictions such as anti-dumping. In recent two years, China's influence on global nonferrous metal prices has been increasing, but at the same time, the "China factor" has been repeatedly used by western developed countries as the rhetoric of high metal price fluctuations. Therefore, we should be wary of western countries using this as an excuse to actively deal with foreign trade frictions such as anti-dumping. At the same time, guide enterprises to "go global" and actively use overseas mineral resources.
3. Develop the futures market and compete for the right to speak on pricing. In the international market, commodity pricing is basically based on futures pricing. At present, China has launched copper, aluminum and zinc futures trading. In the future, we should choose the opportunity to carry out other kinds of futures trading and provide "pricing discourse power" for the real economy.
4. Strengthen the monitoring, forecasting and early warning of non-ferrous metal prices. Improve the price monitoring system, closely monitor the price changes of domestic and foreign non-ferrous metals markets, expand the channels for collecting metal information and expand the sources of information, so as to legalize and standardize the price monitoring, forecasting and early warning mechanism and better serve the domestic economic development.