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What impact does the central bank raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans on the stock market?
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Historically, most of the previous interest rate hikes were unfavorable to the stock market. Historically, there is an obvious "leverage effect" between interest rates and the stock market. Generally speaking, if interest rates rise, the stock market will fall; When the interest rate falls, the stock market will rise. Raising interest rates has always been considered as one of the main negative effects of the stock market, because higher interest rates will attract some stock market funds. At the same time, the rise of interest rate will also increase the production cost of enterprises, restrain the demand of enterprises and personal consumption, and finally affect the performance level of listed companies. Some market participants pointed out that raising interest rates will lead to a decline in the valuation of the stock market. Raising interest rates will curb the trend of the stock market in the short term, thus affecting investors' confidence in holding shares. In May 1993, the interest rate was raised by 2. 18% 1993. On May 15, the People's Bank of China decided to raise the deposit and loan interest rate of RMB. The annual interest rates of time deposits of all grades increased by 2. 18 percentage points on average, and the interest rates of various loans increased by 0.82 percentage points on average. 1May 99317th The Shanghai Composite Index opened on Monday 1 162 (the gap opened 5 points lower, and the opening point was the highest in the whole day), with the highest 1 162 and the lowest1092. July 1993, interest rate increase 1.80% 1993. On July 1 1, the central bank raised interest rates again on Sunday, and the one-year time deposit rate was raised from 9. 18% to 10.98%, with a rate increase of 65,438. 1993 07 12 On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 855 points (the gap was lower than 13, and the opening point was the highest in the whole day), with the highest at 855 and the lowest at 828, closing at 845, down 23 points or 2.65%. First and second interest rate hikes (1993 May 15, July 1 1): The central bank raised interest rates twice, which made the Shanghai Composite Index drop rapidly from 1392 to 777 within three months, with a decrease of 44.2%. On Thursday night, June 28th, 2004, the central bank decided to raise the deposit and loan interest rates, and the one-year deposit and loan interest rates were raised by 0.27% respectively. On Friday, October 29th, 2004, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 13 17, with the highest at 1337, the lowest at 1304 and the closing at 132 1. The third rate hike (65438+2004129 October): the one-year deposit and loan interest rate was raised by 0.27%. The Shanghai Composite Index was 1.342 points, down 1.58% on the day. After 7 days of consolidation, it continued the previous rebound trend, but then fell again. The Shanghai Composite Index fell all the way to 998.23. In April 2006, the interest rate was raised by 0.27%. On the evening of Thursday, April 27th, 2006, the central bank decided to raise the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions from April 28th, 2006. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 5.58% to 5.85%. On Friday, April 28th, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index opened 1403 points (low 14 points), with the highest 1445 and the lowest 1389. It closed at 1440, up 23 points or 1.66%, with a turnover of 25,438. Fourth interest rate hike (April 28th, 2006): This interest rate hike only increases the loan interest rate, while the deposit interest rate remains unchanged. In the past three times, the interest rates of loans and deposits were raised simultaneously; The interest rate of this interest rate increase loan is the same as that of the third time, which is 0.27 percentage points. The Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise, reaching the peak of 1757 on July 5, 2006. On Friday, August 18, 2006, the central bank decided to raise the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions from August 18, 2006. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 5.85% to 6. 12%. The loan interest rates of other grades are also adjusted accordingly. On August 2, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 1565.46 points (33 points lower), with the highest 1602. 13 and the lowest 1558. 10. "Raising interest rates" is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it is a big negative in the securities market, on the other hand, it is a big positive in banking stocks!