If someone asks, is there a bubble in the valuation of the automobile market now?
Undoubtedly, the new force of building a car is obviously an overestimated stage. Because even the new forces themselves have been financing at a discount, hoping to get more money back with high valuation.
Li first announced that it would raise 47 million ADSs at a price of $29, and each ADS contained two voting rights. Then Xpeng Motors, Tucki announced the issuance of 40 million ADS, financing almost 2 billion US dollars; Then came Weilai, which issued 68 million ADSs for $39, and almost got $2.65 billion. Even Tesla itself announced the sale of shares worth $5 billion in June 5438+early February, which was the second time since September, and recovered $ 10 billion twice.
The cloud on the head of new energy automobile stocks is getting thicker and thicker, and the risk of valuation collapse is constantly gathering. The cloud has already "thundered and thundered". It's just how long it will take for the dark clouds on this new energy vehicle to turn into a downpour. No one knows, before this, whether this bubble will continue to expand and make things more and more magical.
This made some investors who had not experienced the Internet bubble in 2000 start to look at the files of 20 years ago. Back 20 years ago, after the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates in February, the Nasdaq index finally sprinted, reaching the peak of 5 132.52, and then formed an M-top structure. Since April, Nasdaq has started its diving performance. On April 4th, it plunged more than 12%, but it pulled back to 10 at the close.
In the week of April 10, it fell by 5.8 1% on the first day, by 3. 16% on the second day, by 7.06% on the third day, by 2.46% on the fourth day and by 9.67% on the last trading day of this week.
However, it was not until September that people realized the bursting of the Internet bubble. In September 2000, the Nasdaq index fell by 12.68%, and in June it fell by 8.25% and 438+065.438+00. Then it plunged by 22.9% and fell by 4.9% in February. So far, the Nasdaq index closed at 2470 points in 2000, 52% lower than the highest point.
But this is far from over. February and March of 200 1 decreased by 22.33% and 14.48% respectively, and Nasdaq reached 1840, equivalent to the largest decline of 64%. Just when you think you should hit the bottom, the bottom is farther than you think. It was not until June 5438+1October, 2002 that the Nasdaq index bottomed out, leaving only 1 108.49 points. This is equivalent to a drop of about 40% on the basis of 1840.
Back to the real moment, the high valuation risk of new energy undoubtedly cast a thick cloud over the whole China automobile industry, and also brought the A-share automobile stocks, which had been soaring all the way, to an "emergency stop" in June 5438+February.
It took nine months for Changan Automobile's share price to rise from 10 yuan to 13 yuan. Then, in the month when 10 is only a few trading days, its share price rose from near 14 yuan to the highest 17.64 yuan; Then the next month, from less than 17 yuan all the way to 26 yuan. In the first three weeks of 65438+February, the share price of Changan Automobile once rose to 28.38 yuan, but it also fell by 16%.
Correspondingly, the turnover rate of the stock was maintained at around 20-30% from July to June, and rose sharply after entering 1 1, and reached 9 1.9 1% in June. By the third weekend of 65438+February, its turnover rate had exceeded 70%, and the turnover rate reached 90.93% in 165438+ 10. There are still nine trading days, which is bound to hit a new high.
Changan automobile is not rare, and BYD's trend is even more enviable.
The lowest point of BYD's share price in 65438+ 10 this year is 46.6 1 yuan. By 165438+ 10, its share price reached 198.85 yuan, with an increase of 327%, far exceeding that of Changan Automobile. Similarly, BYD's turnover is even more impressive. In August, it remained at 36.44 billion yuan, and in September it was enlarged to 8165438+600 million yuan, and 1098 130 10 doubled to 209.93 billion yuan respectively. From June 5438 to February last week, the turnover rate data and turnover rate data were 87.08 billion yuan and 44% respectively, but BYD's share price also fell back to 176 yuan.
In addition, Great Wall Motor has increased by more than 3.7 times in half a year, and Jianghuai Automobile's share price has increased by 2.75 times in the past few months. There are many other auto companies whose shares have doubled: Xiaokang, Beiqi Blue Valley, jiangling motors, Dongfeng Motor and Foton Motor ... But after entering 65438+February, most of these stocks stagnated, and some low-priced new energy stocks even fell sharply.
Many people ask, what is the internal cause supporting the rise of this wave of auto stocks and what is the reason for stagflation?
The first feeling is that the increase in recent months may be a revaluation of new energy vehicles in overseas markets. This truth is firmly understood by many retail investors as "value investment in the new era", but this kind of value investment seems to be based on the "New Energy Great Leap Forward".
The market value of several new overseas forces has soared, surpassing the traditional car giants one after another, which has made investors have great interest in domestic new energy car companies. For example, the sales volume of new energy vehicles of Xiaokang shares in 1 1 is only 2579, but the share price of Xiaokang shares has doubled this month; Another example is Beiqi Blue Valley. The monthly production and sales volume of 1 1700 vehicles is only over 65,438, and the annual cumulative sales volume has dropped by 78%, which does not prevent the stock price from rising from 6 yuan in recent three months to 10.54 yuan.
However, judging from the stock price trends of BYD, Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motor, market investors are not only concerned about new energy, but also the rising space of these independent car companies in sales and technical reserves.
In fact, although the high point of the vehicle sector is 165438+ 10, the stock trends of companies such as Great Wall, Changan and BYD are different from those of companies that are on fire because of the "new energy concept". On the one hand, the doubling effect of these stocks is much higher than that of new energy concept stocks, on the other hand, the participation of investors is higher, and the consolidation trend is basically maintained under the big shock of 65438+February. In contrast, most of those low-priced new energy concept stocks fell rapidly after doubling. Without fundamental support, most share prices have fallen by 20% to 30%.
Let's take Changan Automobile as an example. 165438+1October 19 On that day, the share price of Changan Automobile fell by 9.3 1%. In many cases, weak stocks are already established highs. However, just six trading days later, Changan Automobile regained its upward trend and hit a new high again, and then hit the daily limit on the third day. The differences among investors make the trading activity of Changan Automobile particularly obvious. In the first three weeks of 65438+February, the price rose or fell by more than 5% in four trading days.
Personally, the reason for this divergence is that different investors have different perceptions about the prospect of the whole China automobile market-valuation bubble or value investment, which is a question worth considering.
At present, it seems that the medium and long-term automobile market environment can support the bullish view. In 2020, China automobile market will probably narrow the decline to less than 2%, which is quite rare for China automobile market, which basically lost its automobile sales in February and March. At the same time, in the past 1 1 month, China's automobile market did not fall back as quickly as usual, but continued to maintain high growth, which proved that China's automobile consumption has gone out of the trough for more than two years.
"In 20021year, the automobile market in China will show a slow growth trend. In 20021year, the total automobile sales volume is expected to reach 26.3 million, up about 4% year-on-year; The automobile market will also grow steadily in the next five years. It is estimated that the automobile sales will reach 30 million in 2025. " ? Fu, executive vice president and secretary general of China Automobile Industry Association, said at a recent meeting.
At the same time, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation, also said: "The 202 1 automobile market has a bright future. We expect the passenger car wholesale market to grow by 9% and the new energy passenger car to grow by nearly 50%. " His basis is that the automobile industry almost involves many requirements at the Central Economic Work Conference. "Strengthen the national strategic scientific and technological strength, enhance the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain supply chain, adhere to the expansion of domestic demand as the strategic basis, and clarify the core tasks of the automobile industry."
Of course, several car companies are also "overweight" their competitiveness and provide corresponding support for the market value of enterprises. Recently, companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor and Dongfeng Motor have invested heavily in new technologies and products in an attempt to create a more competitive corporate consciousness.
BYD is aiming at the brand-new pure electric vehicle Korea, and the sound volume in the whole investment circle is not as good as that of Tesla, at least catching up with Weilaihe; Great Wall Motor is also talking about technological innovation, and the technology platform and new energy technology launched have made the stock price rise steadily; Changan Automobile also seized the opportunity to market its cooperation opportunities with Huawei and Tencent, which brought the stock price to stabilize. Similar to the news that Guangzhou Automobile Group "inadvertently" released the independence of the new energy brand Ai 'an, Dongfeng Group took the opportunity to launch the high-end new energy brand Lan Tu and took the lead in "returning" to the GEM.
The booming automobile market in China and the accelerated introduction of new technology products may be important factors for some investors to look at the stock prices of multi-vehicle companies.
On the other hand, the risks brought by high valuation are also gathering, and its negative results have to attract the attention of all parties. Even if the valuation of China automobile manufacturers is not in the bubble stage, the valuation risk contained in the new forces listed overseas may also be the trigger for the general decline in the stock price of the automobile industry.
Due to the "war of words" between He Xiaopeng and Tesla CEO elon musk about lidar and autonomous driving,1Monday, October 23rd, 165438, Xpeng Motors rose by 33.92%, and its share price broke through the $60 and $70 mark one after another, and the market value of Tucki also exceeded $52 billion. However, the valuation of 50 billion yuan did not last long. Xpeng Motors' share price fell below $50 in only six trading days, and the lowest was only about $42 in the next few days. By the end of last week, it was still at $46.38, 37.7% lower than the highest point.
A similar situation happened to two other new forces, even Li. 1October 24th, 165438+ Li's share price reached a maximum of $47.7, but after eight trading days, it fell to a minimum of $29.6, a drop of nearly 38%. Today is still a sideways adjustment, and the stock price stays around 3 1 USD and 32 USD. Weilai Automobile once fell by at most 32.8% in the past 30 days, and its share price fell from 57.2 US dollars to 38.43 US dollars, but Weilai Automobile has rebounded recently.
In fact, even Tesla, the leading car company of the whole new energy vehicle, has fallen into the discussion of "Rashomon". Judging from Tesla's recent share price, the market's views on this car company are particularly divided. On the one hand, the bears are bearish, on the other hand, the bulls are determined to pull up.
On the eve of Tesla's inclusion in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, Tesla's share price first plunged sharply, falling 3.4% near the close, but suddenly rose strongly in the last 20 minutes, and finally closed at $695, up nearly 6%. At this point, Tesla's market value exceeds $650 billion, which happens to be the final document of a salary agreement completely composed of incentives reached by Musk and the board of directors in 20 18: he will receive 20.3 million stock options at that time, which should be converted into $56 billion by now.
However, some investors are puzzled by the trend of Tesla on this day: "An index fund bought 69 million shares of Tesla at a premium of $695 per share and 5%. Can this be said to manipulate the market? "
Perhaps these index funds are betting that after Tesla becomes a member of the Standard & Poor's 500 on February 2 1 65438, the index funds will have to passively buy this stock, so it is likely to form a snap, which may lead to a premium. And now American retail investors are still buying Tesla shares, and it seems that Tesla will go up forever.
Now, everyone is guessing how long it will take before the bubble bursts, but they don't want to leave the last bite of "meat" before the bubble bursts. At the beginning of the story of the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000, there was still enough time for you to escape during the bursting of the bubble, but most people would only wait for a new low.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.