As shown in the above figure, taking the Standard & Poor's 500 Index as an example, from the low point of 667 at the beginning of 2009, it went out of a wave of almost "scary" continuous rising market, and only after 20 14 did it make a small adjustment for more than two years, which has been rising for 20 years, which is very unscientific from a technical point of view.
Judging from the actual economic situation, the performance of the United States in the last two years is also unsatisfactory. The development of science and technology has shown fatigue and is unsustainable, and a new round of adjustment is inevitable.
There is also an idiom in China called "extremes meet", which means that when a substance develops to a certain extent, it will inevitably go in the opposite direction. therefore
In recent years, the "economic means" of the United States have been almost exhausted, and risk transfer, disorderly currency issuance, and violent trade measures have been used one after another. However, the economic situation is still weak. In the process of its "hegemonism", it triggered strong confrontation from other countries, and more and more countries participated in the "dollarization" team, which undoubtedly had a long-term suppression effect on the American economy and the stock market.
Based on the above reasons, we can boldly predict that if US stocks continue to rise sharply, their rising space is also very limited. Every time it hits a new high, it means that it is closer to the "crash"!
10 The bull market in the US stock market is thunderous and constantly creates a record high; Some economists who belittle the United States are embarrassed, just like sports commentators can't explain table tennis "Hoo, Hoo, Hoo, Hoo ..." They don't know how to end it, but 18 is too tired to play table tennis. Us stocks, bull market 10, they are exhausted! Next, they will punch themselves in the face, because 10 years later, they are more confident and can take a gamble, which is regarded as "industrial upgrading".
US stocks continue to rise, but the speed is not fast, and the upward trend remains unshakable. It is even more outrageous to use A-share thinking to set up US stocks than to use Chavez's thought to guide the style change of the General Assembly. Chavez is addicted, but the United States still leads the world, and Venezuela is completely planted in the ditch.
Don't expect US stocks to continue to soar and then viciously kill stock market investors, which is a lie description of the capital competition market; Cage killing is a slaughterhouse that lacks full competition from institutions. Soros, Rogers, Rothschild family, Rockefeller, arms dealer, gun interest group, president of capital control ... China economist Mo Yan was ashamed of his imagination in making up stories.
China's stock market needs the rule of law, equality, freedom, competition, openness, anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition just like the commodity market. If football is to become a strong team in the world, it also needs the football industry to do so in order to flourish. The rise and fall of US stocks depends on fundamentals and expectations for the future; If it continues to soar, it depends on whether their series of new ideas have been implemented: whether the wall has been repaired, whether the "three zero" recognition has been realized, whether the bilateral economic and trade framework has been popularized, whether international organizations and international relations have been reformed, whether others should not take advantage, whether military spending should be shared by all, whether new technologies have been put into use, whether military technology can solve problems more effectively, and whether the stock price and fundamentals match.
If you want to know the result of the continuous surge in the US stock market, you must first know why the US stock market has soared.
Generally speaking, the stock market is a barometer of the economy, and the growth of the stock market means good economic growth. In this case, the market value of the stock market pushed up by fundamentals will not bring any negative results.
However, the current US stock market is not like this. Since the end of 20 17, the economic growth momentum of the United States has begun to fail, while the American stock market has continued to rise, which shows that the trend of the American stock market has been divorced from the economic fundamentals. This situation is more obvious from 20 19. The continuous decline of PMI data of American manufacturing industry reached the lowest point since 2009. It can be considered that the endogenous power of economic growth has dried up, but the US stock market continues to climb under the influence of the continuous interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has brought about two effects.
The first aspect is that the separation between US stocks and economic fundamentals is getting more and more serious. There is no fundamental support below US stocks, so it can be considered that there is huge room for decline.
The second aspect is that US stocks are increasingly relying on the support of easing policies such as interest rate cuts. If the Fed does not have room for further easing, there is a great possibility that US stocks will fall.
However, as long as the Fed has room for interest rate cuts or even quantitative easing, the decline of US stocks will not happen, which means that US stocks will continue to rise at least in the first half of this year, and even continue to break through historical highs. However, the rise of US stocks also means that there are more and more bubbles. The deviation from economic fundamentals can be considered as the rise of the valuation of the US stock market, that is, the rise of the bubble. Then when the recession finally comes, the inevitable decline of the US stock market will also bring more shocks.
This is the possible impact of the continued rise of US stocks. Before every economic crisis, the American stock market will continue to rise under the impetus of liquidity, but it will often have a greater impact on the economy in the end.
The tide rises and falls, and the stars move and the sea falls. This is the result. The players in the iron market are ruined. Few people can make a profit. The market has been there, and the funds are turning. This has always been the case. All people who think they are smart will eventually beat their chests and feet and regret. This is the final result. Has been reincarnation, never.
I'm glad to answer your question. What will happen if the US stock market rises sharply? This depends on several aspects.
The rise of the American stock market will bring huge profits to investors, and all the major pension funds in the United States are in the American stock market. Therefore, from the will of the people, I hope that the stock market will rise higher and higher. For investors, this is welcome.
The higher the US stock market, the better the global stock market will be, and everyone is in a thriving market state. This is what every investor is happy to see. The stock market shows that the economy is improving, the society is stable, the people live and work in peace and contentment, and there is no risk of war. It's not necessarily a good thing to keep walking.
On the other hand, the stock market is cyclical, and bulls and bears alternate. If the US stock market continues to go bullish, the bear market will not be far away. There's an old saying in China that it's never too late, which is a great warning.
The U.S. stock market has soared, which has a good side. At the same time, we should also see the existence of risks. I hope my answer is helpful to you. Thank you.
In the past August, even if the global trade friction continued to intensify, the US stocks that had been rising for more than nine years were still "against the wind". The data shows that the Dow Jones index and the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose by 2. 1% and 3% respectively in August, the biggest increase since 20 14 years. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose sharply by 5.7% in August. In addition, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index both hit record highs in August.
Analysts said that there are two main reasons for the continuous rise of US stocks under the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. First, the overall economy of the United States is basically good, and the economic growth rate remains high. In the second quarter of this year, US GDP increased by 4. 1% year-on-year, the fastest growth rate in four years. Second, the global trade friction has intensified, coupled with the sharp appreciation of the US dollar earlier, the market risk sentiment has reversed, and funds have poured into the US dollar zone.
Data show that last week, global funds continued and accelerated to flow into the United States and out of Europe, and the pressure on emerging markets was temporarily eased. In terms of stock market, global funds continued to flow into US stocks, with an increase in scale, slightly returning to emerging markets and flowing out from Europe and Japan. Specifically, last week, US stocks flowed into US$ 6.85 billion, up from US$ 3.96 billion in the previous week. Emerging markets turned into an inflow of $440 million, better than the outflow of $250 million in the previous week; Europe's continuous 15 weekly net outflow13 billion USD, which is a significant marginal improvement compared with the previous week's large outflow16.9 billion USD. Japan's stock market outflow last week was $65.438+$600 million, higher than last week's $57.9 million.
The starting point of this bull market in US stocks began on March 9, 2009. At that time, the US financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis caused the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to hit an intraday low of 666.79 points. However, the index has rebounded all the way since then. Until the end of August this year, it rose by 332% in more than 9 years, becoming the longest bull market in the history of US stocks. The longest bull market before started from 1990 to 10, and finally ended due to the bursting of the technology stock bubble in March 2000, which lasted for 1 13 months.
In this bull market of US stocks, the rapid expansion of technology stocks is quite obvious. The data shows that in the past 10 year, the top five technology stocks in the US stock market led the bull market, with a total market value of 34,545,438+0.4 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 24 trillion yuan. It has exceeded the total market value of A shares and half of Germany's total annual GDP. In this bull market of US stocks, Apple, the first trillion-dollar market capitalization company of US stocks, was born. Amazon, another technology giant, once had a total market value close to $940 billion, and is expected to become the second company in the US stock market with a market value of over $1 trillion. Consumer stocks and technology stocks have become bull stock concentration camps in this round of US stock bull market, and 40% of the stocks with 10 times come from these two industries.