(1) The first stage of China stock market: the value axis stage of 1000 points (which takes 6 years).
During the six years from 1990 to 1996, China stock market always took 1000 as its value axis, and 1500 became an insurmountable hurdle ("box top") in shareholders' minds. In the past six years, China stock market has experienced three frequent ups and downs.
(1) The first round of ups and downs: 100 points-1429 points -400 points (down more than 50%).
Based on 199065438+February19, China stock market started at 100. On May 26th, 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index soared to 1429, which was the "peak" of the first big bull market in China stock market. In a year and a half, the Shanghai Composite Index soared 1300 points or more. Then the stock market quickly fell back, causing panic. Five months after the plunge, in June1992165438+10/6, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 400 points, almost returning to its original shape.
(2) The second round of ups and downs: 400 points-1536 points -333 points (down more than 50%).
The Shanghai Composite Index set sail from a low of 400 points at the end of 1992, and began the second round of "ups and downs". This time, the surge came even more violently, rising from around 400 points to1February 993 1536.82 points (the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 1500 points for the first time). In just three months, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1 15. The stock index stood above 1500 for four days, then turned around and continued to fall. This time, there was basically no resistance, but the decline time was longer than the previous round, and it continued to fall 17 months. On July 29th, 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest point of this round of market, closing at 333.92 points.
(3) The third round of ups and downs: 333 points-1053 points -5 12 points (down more than 50%).
Due to the three policies to rescue the market, 1 August 19941started a new round of market. This bull market is more violent and shorter. In just over a month, the Shanghai Composite Index soared to the highest point in September 1994 1053, with an increase of 265,433. Then a longer bear market began. Until 199665438+1October19, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest point of 5 12.80. This round of decline took 16 months in total.
(2) The second stage of China stock market: the bottom confirmation stage of 1000 (it takes 9 years).
Until1February 2, 9971day, China stock market stood at 1000 again, which was a turning point and the beginning of a new stage. Since then, the China stock market closing index has been firmly above 1000. On June 6, 2005, although the Shanghai Composite Index once broke through the 1000 mark in intraday trading, the stock index still stubbornly closed above 1000 on that day.
From1June 1996 to June 2005, China stock market experienced the fourth round of ups and downs. Its main symbolic significance is that this round of ups and downs struggled to break through the historical "top of the box" of 1500, and turned the "value axis" of 1000 into a new market "bottom of the box".
(4) The fourth round of ups and downs: 5 12 points-2,245 points -998 points (down more than 50%).
At the beginning of 1996, this big bull market was quietly launched in the disclosure of regular annual reports. The Shanghai Composite Index 1996 65438+ 10/9 started above 500 points. On 2001June 14, the Shanghai Composite Index hit an all-time high of 2245 points. The bull market has accumulated more than 300% in five years! Since then, it has officially declared the real end of this bull market in China, which lasted for five years.
In the rising channel of the fourth big bull market, its "twists and turns" market solved the bubble gathered in the periodic expansion of the stock market well. This is very conducive to the continuation of the bull market: 5 12 (1996 65438+ 10 month)-15 10 (1997 May)-/kloc-0.
Please note: Because every "callback" in the rising channel of the big bull market does not exceed 1/2 of the highest point of the previous rise, the author regards it as a "callback" rather than an independent "bear market". The main difference between the fourth round of bull and bear replacement and the first three rounds of bull and bear replacement is that the fourth round of market is a "slow bull" market, which is symmetrically characterized by a "rise" and a "fall": 2245 points-1500 points-1200 points. It is the ups and downs of the bull market that lead to its ups and downs. It is also the case that this bull and bear market can last for 9 years. This is the only "slow bull and slow bear" mode experienced by China stock market in the past 20 years.
(3) The third stage of China stock market: 1500 bottom confirmation stage (taking 3 years).
In the second half of 2005, China stock market consolidated from 1000, regained confidence, and once again opened the prelude to the most violent fifth round of ups and downs in China stock market in 20 years.
(5) The fifth round of ups and downs: 998 points -6 124 points-1664 points (down more than 50%).
On June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 1 1,000 points, with a minimum of 998.23 points. Compared with 2245 points on June, 20065438 14, the total decline was more than 50%, marking the official establishment of the bottom of this bear market.
In the second half of 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index started a new super bull market around 1000. On May 9, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index finally stood on 1500 again. On October 20th, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 2000 points.
In June 5438+February 65438+April 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a record high for the first time, closing at 2249.438+0 1. Eight trading days later, at 65438 on February 27th, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index rushed to the 2500 mark for the first time. On February 26th, 2007, the market stood at the 3000 mark for the first time. On May 9, 2007, the market stood at the 4000 mark for the first time. On August 23, 2007, the market stood at the 5000 mark for the first time.
On June 5, 2007, the market stood at 6000 points for the first time. The next day hit a record high of 6 124. The market only stood at 6000 points for three days and then turned down, marking the official end of this bull market.
In this big bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index soared from 2245 points on February 4th, 16 to 17 10 on October 6th, and it only took 10 months. However, in the next big bear market, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged from 6 124 to 2,245, which just took 10 months. This is the true "symmetrical beauty" of China stock market!
However, things are far from over. On June 28th, 2008, 10, China stock market continued to plummet to 1664, revealing the absolute bottom of this bear market! Some people say that it should be almost enough to fall from 6 100 to today's 1600; However, some people say that it will at least fall below 1500. What's more, some people predict that this bear market will fall to 1200 or try again at the bottom of 1000. Fortunately, all this is just the imagination or pessimism of a few people.
1664, it really stopped! The significance of this great signal lies in: it marks that the China stock market has finally confirmed the historical new "bottom of the box" of 1500; 1500 points finally built the China stock market Wan Li Great Wall!
The fourth stage of China stock market: where is the new value axis? 2000 or 3000?
1500 is the "bottom of the box" of China stock market in the future, which is unbreakable! So, where is the value axis of China stock market in the next three to five years? How long will it take to cross the historical peak of 6 124 again? Will it repeat the mistake that the Japanese stock market failed to cross the historical peak of 40,000 points in 20 years? Or will it return to the historical peak of 5500 points on Nasdaq in ten years? The 20-year K-line chart of China stock market may give us some enlightenment, some inspiration, or some answers.