Since 17 entered the long-term rental apartment, many people are envious. Some of them will enter this industry. Ask me how to do it. I asked you why you want to invest in the long-term rental apartment industry. They think this industry is quite profitable, the threshold is not high, income is cash flow, and Baba Baba is a pile, stop, stop, stop! There is a saying that people outside the wall desperately want to jump in, and people inside the wall run out. As an apartment owner, let alone because I think about how to take good care of our renters every day and how to improve the occupancy rate like my mother, I give money to the landlord at the beginning of each month. Since I entered this industry, I slept late in the early days, and people lost weight and stopped hurting because I did a lot of physical exercise. I want to work part-time and become a universal repairman. Before entering this industry, we should carefully inspect, learn and understand the situation of this industry.

Let's first sort out the development of long-term rental apartments in China. After four stages of development:

?

Germination period (20 10 to 20 13)

?

Long-term rental apartments sprouted around 20 10 in China. Before high-end apartments appeared in the market, the brand of young long-term rental apartments really appeared around 20 10. Including you+freedom, you Jia and Qingke were born at this moment. Many brand founders have transformed from second landlords or real estate agents to long-term rental apartments. In the process of starting a business, they keenly discovered the demand, thus becoming the first group of young apartment players in China.

Initial period (20 13 to 20 15)

Long-term rental apartments began to attract the attention of capital. From 20 13 to 20 15, the Rubik's Cube received Huaping Capital of 30 million US dollars, and the new apartment with self-sustaining property received1600,000 yuan. Internet plus, real estate agency and hotel department have all entered this track because of their broad development prospects.

Foam stage (20 15 to 20 17)

20 15 is the first year of domestic apartments. The state supports the development of leasing industry from the aspects of finance, policy, housing and taxation. Local governments such as Guangzhou have also introduced "the same right to rent and sell", that is, both selling houses and renting houses can enjoy the same social resources such as education, and further promote the development of long-term rental apartments. Subsequently, Vanke announced the "Wancun Plan" to establish new rental communities throughout the country, which marked the official entry of real estate developers into long-term rental apartments. Country Garden, Longhu, Xuhui, China Merchants and Jindi came in one after another, and the industry was full of excitement. And early players such as Rubik's Cube, YOU+, Eggshell and Freehand, in order to compete with giants, speed up financing. 2065438+2007, the securitization market of China apartment industry took an important step. The "Rubik's Cube Apartment Trust Income Right Asset Support Plan" was established, raising 350 million yuan, which is the first single apartment industry asset product in China. The industry threshold is getting higher and higher, the financing of small and medium-sized units is difficult, and the capital is directed at the head enterprises.

Low tide (20 18 to? )

At this stage, since 18, the negative news of long-term rental apartments has been constant, formaldehyde has exceeded the standard, rent has been raised, and more thunder and less rain. The media changed from encouragement to demonization. On 20 18, 10, Vanke announced that it would stop the "ten thousand villages plan", and even some remote areas in Shenzhen had rent withdrawal or project transfer. The Shenzhen Municipal Government has issued relevant policies to stabilize rents, stipulating that landlords can't terminate contracts and raise rents at will, and the annual increase of rents can't exceed 5%, which is equivalent to blocking the profit space of long-term rental apartments. Dingjia Apartment and Le Jia Apartment, a number of "AG low output" explosions in the industry, officially entered the low tide period. At this time, some enterprises such as Ocean Shipping have transferred the long-term rental apartment sector as a whole, while the rest have developed slowly. Everyone has entered a more cautious attitude. A list of closed apartments is attached:

The above are the four stages of the development of long-term rental apartments, after understanding the development history of the industry. Let's take a look at the problems in the industry. In fact, there are many problems. Excessive formaldehyde, low AG production, rising rent, scale trap, etc. There are two key problems at present: low rate of return and high vacancy rate.

?

The rate of return is low. We 1000 took it before and sold it for 3000. Now 1500 yuan can only sell for 2500 yuan. The price difference has narrowed. At present, the gross profit margin of centralized apartments is between 30% and 40%, and the payback period is 3-5 years. Generally, the lease term of centralized apartment is 8- 15 years. However, the decentralized lease term is relatively short, with a gross profit of 65,438+00-30% in 3-5 years, a relatively small investment and a payback period of 65,438+0-2 years. It is said that the annual report of a head apartment shows that the input cost of a single room is 70 thousand, and the return period is 6.8 years.

The vacancy rate is too high. Sister Zhou rented a house in Guangzhou for 10 years, and the current scale is about 1000 suites. "I have been doing apartments for so many years, and this year's market is the worst. In the past, the house was vacant and could be rented out in less than three days. Now many of our houses have been vacant for a month and we can't find a tenant. The overall occupancy rate is only about 85%. " At present, the vacancy rate is a sword hanging over the head of apartment operators. Everyone is thinking about how to rent out the house, and the vacancy rate has also led to a decline in rent. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of Beijing, the rent dropped by 4% month-on-month, and the landlord wanted 18 rent to skyrocket. Faced with the low occupancy rate, many apartment operators have to make great efforts to reduce prices and promote sales. Recently, an egg apartment was launched, with a one-year contract and rent-free 1.5 months, which is a weather vane. Pessimists believe that the industry has entered a wave of price reduction.

So, is the long-term rental apartment industry reliable? Or is this industry promising? The domestic rental market is a trillion-dollar market. Statistics show that the rental market will reach10.6 trillion in 2020 and 2.2 trillion in 2025. According to foreign experience, with the rise of housing prices, more and more people will rent houses.

There are about 654.38+300 million houses in the United States. Since 2005, the home ownership rate in the United States has dropped from 69.2% in 2004 to 62.9%. Since 2004, at least 8 million families with their own houses have turned to leasing, with a population of nearly190 thousand. By the end of 20 15, there were 43.9 million rented families in the United States, with a rented population of 1. 1 100 million, nearly one third of the total population. The rent GMV has reached more than 500 billion dollars, more and more people in the United States have become renters, and the rental market has been expanding.

Let's take a look at our close neighbor Japan. Since the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble, the population has aged and house prices have fallen. Rent has also declined with the decline in house prices, and has stopped falling and rebounded since 2000. At present, the rental market in Japan is huge and stable. The proportion of renting households in Japan is as high as 35%, and more than 1800 people choose to rent. Because the housing prices in Japan's three major business districts are relatively high, wage earners can't afford it and rent houses instead. Income and rental expenses are less than 30%. In the past 20 years, the national rent level in Japan has shown a slow downward trend, and everyone is more willing to rent than buy a house.

Looking at the perfect rental market is really promising, so how can individuals enter and take fewer detours?

First of all, we must fully understand the market. You can't blindly follow the trend, or you will die quickly. After fully understanding the characteristics of the industry, how to locate it, whether to be a youth apartment or a blue-collar and family apartment? What channels are used to acquire customers? What services are provided? All these should be made clear and fully understood that this is a hard industry.

In addition, the feasibility investigation report and cash flow model calculation should be done for specific projects. The feasibility of the project can be comprehensively evaluated from five dimensions: rental demand, transportation, maturity of surrounding facilities, property visibility and property decoration cost. Then, we can calculate the return rate of the project during the lease period through the cash flow calculation model, and quantify the risk through the data to clearly understand our income and cost.

Secondly, the purchase cost of the house. The income of the long-term rental apartment itself comes from the rent difference. If the rent in the early stage of the project is too high, even if your operation ability is good, it is difficult to get the ideal return. Even a loss. The previous failures of Leka, Dingjia and Ai Apartment. Because of high income and low output, the cash flow broke and closed down. Those who violate the essential laws of the industry will definitely have problems in the future. If you can get a cost-effective property, especially in the core area of the city, with convenient transportation and complete facilities, congratulations, you are half successful.

Finally, find an experienced person in the industry as a partner. Including the feasibility study report and cash flow model just now, the industry can't do it and needs industry veterans. If the team has experienced industry veterans, it can save you a lot of detours and even lightning protection. What if I can't find such a partner? Then, you can go to learning societies or educational institutions related to long-term rental apartments to learn about the industry trends and the management, operation and marketing of the apartment industry.

Although the industry is currently in a painful period, after the cold winter, spring will come. There are no loss-making industries, only loss-making enterprises. If you are not fully prepared, you will still turn back to the shore. If you rush into the apartment industry, you will die miserably.