Now, the United States has deviated from the track, and running all the way has become the poorest country in the world.
In the first half of 200210, the national debt of the United States has exceeded 28 trillion US dollars, and US President Biden will continue to open the printing press and continue to increase the debt.
How did the American debt problem come about?
In fact, after entering the 2 1 century, the fiscal revenue of governments at all levels in the United States showed a "strong growth momentum"-from $ 4. 1 trillion to $6.8 trillion in fiscal year 20 19, and further increased to $7.2 trillion in fiscal year 2020. The annual fiscal revenue of the United States will exceed the annual GDP of most countries in the world, such as Japan and Germany. This record $7.2 trillion is attributed to the US federal government's fiscal revenue of about $3.6 trillion, and this figure is only 50%. The fiscal revenue of state governments at all levels in the United States exceeds 2 trillion US dollars, accounting for 28%; The revenue of other local governments at all levels in fiscal year 2020 slightly exceeded $65,438 +0.5 trillion, accounting for about 2 1%.
In fiscal year 2020, the fiscal expenditure of governments at all levels in the United States reached 9.8 trillion US dollars, 2.6 trillion US dollars higher than the income, setting a new historical record. Among them, the US federal government's fiscal expenditure in fiscal year 2020 exceeded US$ 6.6 trillion, and the fiscal deficit reached US$ 3. 1 trillion, which is the direct reason for the continuous record high of US national debt.
After Biden took office, in order to restore economic development and "defeat China", he adopted a rescue plan of $65,438 +0.9 trillion and announced a employment plan of $2.25 trillion. It also prompted the US federal government's fiscal deficit to reach a high point in March, reaching $660 billion, making it the third highest monthly fiscal deficit record in American history, and the previous first half of the year was a time of sluggish fiscal expenditure.
What is this concept?
In 2020, Saudi Arabia, the 20th oil exporter in the world's GDP, sold only $760 billion of oil a year, and the United States is about to lose money this month.
It can be predicted that with the continuous implementation of the Biden plan, the US fiscal deficit will soar, so is the US still able to pay back the money? Will you pay back the money? The current conclusion is impossible.
When will the dollar bubble burst?
In 2020, the total GDP of the United States will be US$ 20.8 trillion, and the scale of national debt will exceed US$ 27 trillion. However, the internationally recognized warning line standard for national debt is 100%~ 120% of GDP. According to the GDP of the United States in 2020, its debt ratio exceeds 130%, which has greatly exceeded the international warning line standard.
In the first half of fiscal year 20021,that is, from June 2020 10 to March 200210, the US federal government's fiscal deficit has risen to $65,438 +0.7 trillion, a record high in the same period.
The consequence of this is that the national credit of the United States continues to decline and the world accelerates to get rid of the dollar; Up to now, at least 53 countries, including Russia, Germany, Japan and Vietnam, have "de-dollarized" through non-dollar oil transactions, currency swaps and selling US debt. According to American media statistics, as of June 5438+February, 2020, 29 countries around the world, including China, Japan and Germany, have sold nearly one trillion dollars of US debt.
The current US government can only make ends meet, and it can only make a big dollar bubble until the bubble is punctured.
Then there are many questions. Why can't the United States open source and cut expenditure? Open source America is already very strong, why not cut costs? Here we look at the financial expenditure of the United States.
So where did all the American money go?
There are three main types of fiscal expenditure in the United States: compulsory expenditure accounts for about 62%, debt interest pays about 8%, and discretionary expenditure accounts for about 30%.
The first is that compulsory expenditure accounts for about 62%.
Simply put, this part should belong to the expenditure of "taking from the people and using it for the people", such as the supplementary security income of American retirees, the medical insurance plan for the poor and the Medicaid plan.
Followed by interest payment on national debt, accounting for about 8%.
This expenditure is only the interest on American debt. In fiscal year 20 19, debt interest paid $363 billion.
Finally, disposable expenditure, accounting for about 30%.
In fiscal year 20 19, the disposable expenditure of the US government was $65,438 +0.305 trillion, which was used to pay all other government needs. Disposable expenditure includes the contingency fund. In the fiscal year of 20 19, the emergency fund was11400 million dollars, the military expenditure was 886 billion dollars, and the budget expenditure of the US Department of Health and Human Services was 69.5 billion dollars.
Throttle? The United States estimates that it is cutting funds for emergency projects. Who else dares to move? If all of them are cut off, it will not cost more than $654.38+000 billion. Can this save money? Or let more than 28 million government civil servants in the United States work without pay?
Therefore, whatever Biden does, he can only borrow money. In fact, Biden is also quite powerful. He can actually get American troops out of Afghanistan, whether for reasons of balancing China or something else, so that the super-influential military collective in American politics does not object.
However, when preparing to change the tax policy of robbing the poor and helping the rich in the United States, Biden found himself underestimating the greed of capitalists. Capitalists don't care about the survival of the United States, as long as they don't hinder most people from making money, they can do whatever they want.
At present, some people still buy American debt, because the dollar is still the main settlement currency of world trade, and because most people believe that they will not be the unlucky ones who took over the last stick.
In fact, the ratio of American debt to GDP is as high as 130%, which has created a miracle. But how long will this miracle last? No one can predict.
Why can American debt work miracles?
In fact, the United States has fallen into a vicious circle, that is, money is never enough to spend, so it can only keep issuing American bonds to borrow money, or it will be finished soon. Borrowing money = chronic suicide, not borrowing money = immediate collapse.
The most important thing for the United States to continue this cycle is that it has two points: military hegemony and technological hegemony, which are indispensable. These two hegemonies determine the basis of American debt, which in turn boosts hegemony.
Let's start with the dollar and American military hegemony:
The war in Afghanistan started in 2006 and has been going on for 19 years. About 6,700 Americans died and 55,000 were injured, with a total cost of 654,380+0.7 trillion US dollars.
In the Iraq war, according to the figures disclosed by the US Department of Defense, the United States invested more than 700 billion US dollars in military spending and 50 billion US dollars in reconstruction costs in the Iraq war, resulting in more than 4,000 US troops killed and more than 70,000 US troops injured;
The two wars launched by George W. Bush at the beginning of 2 1 century did great harm to the United States. Obama, Trump and Biden are all cleaning up the mess. In 20021year, the U.S. military contracted across the board and tried to avoid a large number of troops stationed in the war zone.
Let's talk about the Syrian war. With the size of Syria, it was a piece of cake for the early United States to clean up. Therefore, Turkey, once a younger brother, now dares to yell at the United States, knowing that the United States is no longer afraid to launch a slightly larger war. Let me add one more point here. The United States is now trying to carry out assassination, and Erdogan can testify.
Therefore, the United States is now spending a small amount of money to do big things, such as letting Ukraine directly confront Russia. The United States only provided Ukraine with free military assistance of US$ 654.38+US$ 50 million and paid military assistance of US$ 654.38+US$ 50 million. At this rate, even the NG0, which the United States is good at, has no money to spread values, support anti-government armed forces and engage in a color revolution. Once this happens, it will be good for the United States to maintain its status as a regional power, not to mention a superpower.
Re-discussion on American technological hegemony;
American hegemonism in science and technology is mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, using core technologies to suppress potential competitors and obtain high profits. The second is to interfere with normal market competition on the grounds of national security, protect core technologies and markets, and undermine fair market order and investment. The third is to restrict the export of high-tech products from other countries to the United States by means of tariffs and suppress the development of high-tech industries in other countries.
American technological hegemony needs military hegemony to escort. Only in this way can the United States exercise long-arm jurisdiction over other countries through the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and monitor the world and suppress global enterprises by using CIA personnel, SWIFT dollar settlement system and prism plan all over the world.
The most powerful clause in the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act: The United States has jurisdiction over any foreigner or employee of a foreign company who communicates through the mail system of the United States or uses international business tools belonging to the United States to pay for corruption, whether by telephone, mail or bank transfer, as long as he has contact with the United States.
For example, in the case of the arrest of Ms. Meng Wanzhou of Huawei, the reason given by the Canadian police for arresting Meng Wanzhou was that Huawei was suspected of violating US trade sanctions against Iraq. It is difficult for normal people to understand that American law has such a high status in Canada.
In fact, American law has a high status in Europe, Japan and South Korea, which is why when Trump tore up Iran's nuclear agreement, the EU introduced an incentive bill, but EU enterprises still dared not continue to do business with Iran, and the consequences were too serious: in May of 20 13, the United States accused Total of bribing Iranian officials to win Iranian oil and gas contracts and fined 398 million US dollars. BNP Paribas, a European banking giant, will be fined $654.38+0 billion for allegedly violating US sanctions against Sudan and Iran.
In fact, Europe has no sense of resistance. So far, there are no large Internet companies in Europe, and this field is almost monopolized by China and the United States. Don't Britain, France and Germany have research and development capabilities and innovation capabilities? No, it's just a matter of American control behind the scenes.
But what if the United States loses money and military hegemony? Now Europe, Japan and South Korea can listen to the United States, because the fist of the United States is hard enough and the United States has enough troops in these countries. Once there is no money, American military hegemony will cease to exist. Can Japan, South Korea and Europe be so honest? Who wants a father on their heads?
The technological hegemony of the United States is to make money for military hegemony, and China is now disintegrating the technological foundation of the United States. The United States must be in a hurry, so it will crack down on enterprises like Huawei.
Possible Critical Point of Dollar Collapse
I think the dollar debt ratio of 250% is that critical point. When this critical point comes, the United States will not even be able to repay the interest. Now the annual interest expense in the United States will be $600 billion. How much does it cost?
Once the United States can't even pay interest, can American debt still be sold? If you can't sell it, you will have no money. Without money, can American military, scientific and technological and public opinion hegemony be maintained?
In July, 2020, the weekend edition of The New York Times in the United States published a wonderful commentary, saying that the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States and the West has created an opportunity period of 10 years for China, but as long as the United States can maintain its containment of China within this 10 year, China's all-round rise will be "permanently delayed".
10 years. If Biden is re-elected, his two terms will end in the last year. If Biden continues like this, the critical point of the dollar will be reached in less than ten years.
China's best policy is "procrastination". As long as there is peaceful development 10 years, there is nothing the United States can do.
This is the national luck of the United States in the next 10 year, and no one can change it. Biden can put it off at most, so Biden will say, "China is not allowed to surpass the United States in its lifetime."