Reflections on the American financial crisis

Lin Zhengping

Abstract: The American financial crisis inevitably affected the economic development of China. In this context, look at China in the past 30 years of reform and opening up.

From the perspective of economic development, China's economy has made great progress, but it is also facing new opportunities and challenges. At this stage, adhere to reform and opening up,

Measures are being taken to stabilize the domestic financial market, deepen financial reform, adhere to the role of government regulation and market allocation of resources, and actively participate in international cooperation.

This will help China better cope with the negative impact of the international financial crisis.

Keywords: American financial crisis; Reform and opening up; Emerging market countries; Policy dominance

China Library Classification Number: F83 1.59 Document Identification Number: A Document Number:1009-4768 (2008)12-0017-05.

The Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee of the Party emphasized that the current international financial market turmoil has intensified, global economic growth has slowed down significantly, and international

Uncertainties in the economic environment have obviously increased, and there are also some prominent contradictions and problems in the domestic economic operation. Warn the whole party to increase worries

The most important thing is to do your own thing well.

The United States recently experienced the biggest financial crisis in the world since the 1930s, which had a serious impact on the international market.

The impact on the economic development and people's lives of all countries in the world has aroused the worries of governments and people all over the world. We should look at the world.

Wild and strategic vision, examine the cause, process, negative benefits and the impact on China's economy, calmly observe and take it seriously.

In this regard, we should continue to emancipate our minds, constantly expand the breadth and depth of opening up, and strive to enhance the international competitiveness in dealing with the crisis. the same

At the same time, cooperate responsibly with the international community to maintain international financial stability and economic stability. We should seize the opportunity given by history,

Summarize experience and lessons, practice scientific development more consciously, persist in reform and development, and continue to promote sound and rapid economic development.

First, the main crux of the US financial crisis

The essence of economic globalization is the optimal allocation of various resources on a global scale and the cross-border flow of production factors. Specifically including trade.

It is easy to liberalize, internationalize production, cross-border investment and financial globalization, in which the global liberalization of trade and production is the basis of globalization.

Date of receipt: 2008-10-11

About the author: Lin Zhengping, male, Fujian Zhongxin Credit Rating Consulting Co., Ltd., a senior economist.

International financial crisis column

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Foundation. Because economic operation is more and more centered on financial activities and linked by financial relations, financial globalization is economic globalization.

Core, and become a new leading force of globalization; Therefore, finance has become the product of neoliberalism, economic globalization and financialization.

The dominant force. In such a specific new international environment, the United States has implemented an economic growth mode of borrowing money to save the economy.

Taking advantage of the dominant position of the US dollar and investors' confidence in the US economy, financial derivatives are abused. Pass without supervision.

All kinds of financial instruments induce people's greed and speculation, and the consumption pattern changes from income-based savings model to asset-based model.

The transformation of basic savings model and the continuous expansion of consumer credit have brought a lot of overdraft consumption and high debt; Financial professional ethics, high

The salary incentive is out of the reasonable boundary, and the salary gap between executives and ordinary employees is infinitely widened, so they take financial risks and design finance.

Products infinitely extend the credit chain, constantly improve the virtuality, the credit relationship is highly complex, and the property rights relationship is becoming more and more fuzzy and controllable.

It's getting lower and lower, and the risk is getting bigger and bigger. In particular, the crisis has begun to spread, such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS Group AG and other large financial institutions

At present, the loss is huge, the market liquidity plummets, and financial asset default insurance is constantly being introduced. So-called "credit default swaps" (CDS), this kind of production

The product is said to be insurance, but the object of protection is opaque, and its value can't be seen, and it can't be priced and traded well in the market.

In fact, it has been alienated into the gambling behavior of buyers and sellers. In the end, the risk broke out, which could not avoid the danger at all, but aggravated the credit crisis.

Second, look at China's economic development through the crisis.

2 1 century is the best period of global economy after World War II. The characteristics of the global economy in this period are basically that the United States depends on its stage.

For the developed financial system and advanced technology, the wealth effect of asset price bubble supported the rapid expansion of Asian manufacturing circle.

In turn, it has promoted the development of energy and international commodity suppliers in the Middle East, promoted the rise of global commodity prices, and finally caused the global economy.

Excessive consumption of economic growth potential. The balance of payments is basically that East Asian countries export goods, resource countries export resources, and the United States.

China exports dollars and financial products in exchange for goods and resources. In this global industrial transfer, China sought to give consideration to both at the beginning of reform and opening up.

Survival and development, with the policy opening as the leading factor, chose the market economy mode led by the state and gradually opened the region.

As the main line of economic transformation, it has realized the benign interaction between opening up and reform, and transformed the whole economy into an open economy. At this stage, China

The comparative advantage is fully reflected, mainly relying on the low-cost labor advantage led by the government, paying the cost of resources and environment and relying on expansion.

Export balances domestic savings, digests and absorbs domestic surplus savings resources through commodity export, thus rapidly upgrading national industries.

The level of industrialization has also expanded the overall economic scale, laying a solid foundation for continued development. Undoubtedly, this is an inevitable and successful choice.

In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has realized the transformation from a semi-closed economy to an all-round opening, and its import and export trade has increased by 104 times, ranking first in the world.

The trade ranking has been ranked third in the world from the 32nd in 2004. The proportion of the total world trade is not from 1978.

To 1% to 8% in 2007; From 1993 to 15 years in a row, it has become the country that attracts the most foreign investment among developing countries.

At the end of 2007, the national foreign direct investment grew at an average annual rate of 20. 1%.

In recent years, the development cycle of the global economy from imbalance to balance is based on the fact that emerging market countries that support economic balance do not.

On the basis of balance. China's policy of opening to the outside world has brought benefits as well as many problems. First, the United States and Israel have appeared in the world.

China's asset expansion over-consumption model and the structure of surplus production growth model in emerging markets represented by China.

Imbalance. Those European and American countries with excessive consumption patterns have long pursued low interest rate policies and currencies in the case of excessive expansion of virtual economy.

Over-issuance intensifies the fragility of the financial system, even financial markets and financial institutions. A large number of developing countries have exported and promoted them.

Investment has curbed domestic consumption and aggravated the imbalance of economic structure. The first year of reform and opening up was driven by investment and consumption in China.

The role basically changes alternately, and its law is that in the years of high-speed export growth and high-speed economic growth, the contribution of investment to economic growth rate is greater than consumption;

In normal years, the contribution rate of consumption is higher than investment. However, from 200 1 to 2006, the driving force of consumption growth was obviously weakened, and the import and export

The contribution rate to the task fluctuated before 1999, averaging around 7% in the following year and stabilizing at 20% to 24% in 2005.

However, the consumption rate is below 50%, and in some years it is only about 40%, which is generally 20% lower than the world average. that

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Second, due to the increasing role of investment and export in economic growth, China has become the largest producer of resource-based products in the world.

The largest demand country and the largest consumer country. Although the external dependence of important minerals such as crude oil and iron has declined since 2007.

The ore is still above 50%, and there are a lot of resource and environmental problems. Thirdly, in recent years, China's balance of payments has not only increased rapidly in total scale.

Rapid growth, and in 2000-2007, there was a momentum characterized by "double surplus" in current account, capital account and financial account and international income.

The total expenditure surplus has expanded year by year, reaching $445.3 billion in 2007, with an average annual growth rate of 53%, and the surplus accounts for an increasing proportion of GDP in the same period.

The deviation of equilibrium state is gradually expanding, which brings more and more pressure to macro-control, especially monetary policy.

Now we are in an era of more openness and great change. China's exports have accounted for 37% of GDP, while the proportion of the United States has not.

Foot 10%. This structure has been proved by the history of all countries in the world, and it is very vulnerable to the influence of foreign economies. With the globalization.

In-depth and worldwide industrial transfer, transformation and upgrading continue to extend, while the global market is a zero-sum game, and the market is changing.

The final performance is the transfer of wealth and assets. We should seize the opportunity, speed up economic restructuring, persist in reform and opening up, and put

The sound and rapid economic development has pushed to a new platform.

Third, China's measures to deal with the financial crisis

In his report to the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Hu Jintao emphasized that all Party members must be prepared for danger in times of peace and enhance their sense of hardship. Reform and opening up is

The eternal driving force for China's development is to transform and guide the society with innovative thinking according to the current political and economic situation at home and abroad.

In Scientific Outlook on Development's study and practice, we always focus on the theme of scientific development, highlight practical characteristics and carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future.

Emancipating the mind, doing your own thing well and self-reliance are the most important and effective means to deal with the crisis and the greatest contribution to the world.

(1) Know yourself, enhance confidence, seize opportunities and actively respond.

To some extent, this financial crisis is the inevitable result of the long-term accumulation of unbalanced contradictions, and the risks are unprecedented.

In an unprecedented situation, we should seek opportunities in difficulties and seek development in risks. The current financial crisis continues to shift to the real economy.

The international financial market is in turmoil, and external risks are intensifying. Although China's economic indicators are healthy and stable at present, China's financial market

The market system is relatively independent, and the direct impact of this crisis is better than that of other countries such as Europe, but we should see the negative side of our economy.

This problem has increasingly manifested itself as the risk of economic downturn. Demand in Europe and America has slowed down. Due to the price cost and the length of reform and opening up,

And the deepening of understanding, China's external demand slowdown may even exceed that of other emerging market countries in the world. At present, the central government has

Take maintaining steady and rapid economic development and preventing economic ups and downs as the primary goal of scientific development, and strive to expand consumer demand.

Especially the consumption demand of residents, increase the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth, and strive to promote the basic balance of international payments. at present

The existing problems are: (1) The expansion of residents' consumption demand is affected by the slow growth of residents' real disposable income, the shrinking of assets and wealth, the social security system and other factors.

Perfection takes time, rural reform and development needs a process and other factors; (2) In the process of practicing scientific development, we should re-recognize.

Positioning and correcting the past behaviors such as sacrificing the interests of workers, destroying the environment, abusing land and weakening economic autonomy are bound to push forward.

High labor cost and environmental protection cost, and even increase the price of agricultural products when necessary; (3) As an emerging market economy country, it is inevitable that

Suffering from long-term painful inflation in line with the international price system.

The United States is a big exporter of gold reserves, oil reserves and agricultural products. Judging from the subprime mortgage crisis, there is no denying that the United States has passed the decline period.

The expectation of the low interest rate of the US dollar has prompted the surge of commodities and gained huge profits from it. Will the dollar weaken again in the future?

With the gradual rise of commodities, how to judge the trend of the US dollar has become an industry and enterprise directly or indirectly related to the appreciation of foreign exchange in China.

One of the key and core problems of industry. These problems are highlighted by the shortage of domestic energy, land, mineral resources and other important resources.

Shortage, rising labor costs, RMB appreciation and other factors are superimposed on each other, which has caused great harm to some labor-intensive enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises.

Pressure, in turn, brings many uncertainties to economic growth, employment, monetary stability and international payments. China is currently.

The economic fundamentals are good, and it has the conditions and ability to resist external shocks. However, at present, China's economic growth still depends on exports and foreign investment.

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In the long mode, in recent years, China's annual GDP growth is about 10%, and 2~3 percentage points come from the contribution of external demand.

Further calculation shows that the growth rate dropped by 2.3 percentage points in the first three quarters of this year, of which 1.2 percentage points came from the slowdown in exports. state revenue

The monthly growth rate can still maintain double digits, falling back to 3. 1% in September, while the pressure of fiscal expenditure is increasing. Foreign exchange reserves are different.

Under normal circumstances, the increase in September is $21400 million, which is lower than the sum of FDI and foreign trade surplus, but higher than before, and even much higher in some months.

Phenomenon. It should be noted that under the impact of globalization and global crisis, China's economy is still relatively fragile. Therefore, development is still

It is the top priority for the Party to govern and rejuvenate the country, and high-speed growth is still a necessary condition for the peaceful rise of China. At present, we must first reduce and eliminate the crisis.

The loss of influence, and then use the opportunity of the crisis to weaken competitors, establish and consolidate the dominant position of state and national capital in the domestic market,

At the same time actively participate in international market competition. The pattern of global economic development is constantly adjusting, and countries' economic growth models should have different stages of development.

The change of economic background conditions and the restriction of factors. According to the current economic development in China, we should put the development concepts, measures,

Policies lead to real economic growth, constantly improve productivity and technical level, and cannot increase investment indefinitely. Economic work

To ensure development, people's livelihood and stability, we must adhere to the "troika" and the three major industry associations to promote the economy in a balanced way.

Adjust the operation. While making efforts to expand consumer demand, we should not neglect investment, export and utilization of foreign capital, but make efforts to speed up.

Structural adjustment. Investment is still an important driving force to maintain growth at present, and China's capital/labor ratio is far lower than that of the United States and Japan.

The marketization rate is not only lower than that of Korea, but also lower than that of the Philippines. At the same time, large-scale infrastructure such as railways and highways still has a lot of room for development (yes

To sum up the proactive fiscal policy implemented by 1998, even by issuing long-term construction bonds, the fiscal revenue has a stable source and wealth.

Provinces and cities with stable political surpluses issue local construction bonds and increase investment in basic industries and infrastructure. Invest in real estate.

The ratio is about 1/4- 1/5, involving more than 50 industries. It has many positive effects on ensuring growth and employment, and it is still a national.

Economic pillar industries focus on structural adjustment. The driving force of export to economic development is still in an important position, and China has already acted as it.

The basic position of the world's important manufacturing industry has not changed, and the comparative advantage of exports has not faded. Now, trade policy should have a strategy.

Therefore, we should make efforts to cultivate the competitive advantage of China's economy through policy formulation, stabilize exports, and strengthen foreign trade products and regional structure.

Adjust. According to customs statistics, in 2007, the trade growth between China and EU countries exceeded that between China and the United States, and between Asia and Europe.

Mutual economic demand is the main driving force for growth and cooperation, and at the same time, we should vigorously explore emerging markets such as Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa.

(2) Adhere to the role of government regulation and market allocation of resources.

This crisis has given an important warning to all countries in the world. The liberal economy of the Anglo-American model thinks that the government does nothing about the economy.

Thirdly, the formula is tested and properly diluted, and the China model attracts attention. The market does have the functions of high efficiency, self-balance and self-repair, but

The moral hazard brought by the free market economy has been exposed in this crisis. It fully shows that the market function is not enough to compete with the market.

The huge destructive power caused by the market's own problems, government regulation is necessary, and macro-control needs to run through the market economy.

The whole process. In the past 30 years of reform, China has chosen a policy-led market economy model, which does not change the state's control and management, and is dominated by the state.

The government guides industrialization and manages resources and energy industries, which is a powerful economic organization force and reflects the government's control over the national economy.

The leading role of management is proved to be correct in practice. At the same time, we should also see that in recent years, globalization has profoundly changed the economic growth of China.

Externally, developed countries have basically absorbed China's growing huge domestic savings through huge investment activities.

The surplus products produced by increasing production capacity are covered up by external imbalances in a certain sense. Today we are going to

To solve the contradiction of overproduction at this stage strategically, we should straighten out the price market instead of using price control and policy subsidies for a long time.

Mechanism of field formation. Otherwise, it will distort the market, distort the profits of enterprises and distort many problems. As time goes on, the problem will

Accumulate more and more.

(3) Deepen financial reform and provide a good financial environment for scientific development.

With the gradual exposure of economic downside risks and industry risks in China, liquidity risks will become more and more prominent. Prices rose in the previous period,

In a sense, it is the inevitable result of the gradual maturity of the price formation mechanism. At present, China's measures and effects to deal with inflation are better than those of last week.

In neighboring countries, statistics have shown a slowdown in CPI for five consecutive months. Although it is impossible to relax the price control now, but

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At present, confidence comes first. When implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, the confidence of market participants should be enhanced to ensure the stability of the financial system.

Especially the liquidity of banks. It is predicted that in the short term, China will still maintain the era of negative interest rates, the RMB exchange rate will be relatively stable, and the central bank will enter one.

In order to improve liquidity management, commercial banks should abide by macro-control policies, fulfill their social responsibilities and implement differentiated credit policies.

Increased liquidity may bring inflationary pressure. The difficulty now is to consider not only currency fluctuations, but also the consequences.

The loss of confidence is the scientific nature of macro-control.

This crisis exposed that the virtual economy in the United States was excessively divorced from the real economy and eventually became a "scourge" that endangered society. our country

Today, the situation is completely different. The virtual economy as a whole is still in a shallow stage, and there is still a long way to go to match the real economy. empty

The moderate development of quasi-economy can not only increase the monetary demand of economic society for investment and financial goods, but also promote the transformation of savings into money.

Investment can also absorb too much liquidity, and finding the price and pricing function through financial products will have a great impact on it.

The allocation of financial resources produces benefits, which in turn affects the real economy. Especially in the open conditions, in the international environment, first-class.

Our enterprises need first-class financial services. At present, we must deepen financial reform and establish multi-level and adaptable ownership.

The financial system of industry and enterprise financial demand provides a good financial environment for scientific development. At present, we should delete some unnecessary ones.

Financial supervision can solve the problem of financial repression and build a dynamic financial system, otherwise it will only become the passivity of financial risks.

The undertaker. Of course, there is a stable relationship between finance and the real economy, and the credit chain and excessive leverage ratio cannot be extended indefinitely.

If you leave the real economy too much, it will inevitably cause a huge bubble. The financial industry should practice its internal strength, especially its governance structure.

Clarify the property right relationship, strengthen the internal control mechanism, so that every employee has a strong sense of risk, and at the same time let all market participants

Take risks and get due rewards in taking risks.

(4) Actively participate in international cooperation and strive to establish a fair, just, inclusive and orderly new international financial and monetary system.

Due to the deepening of globalization, the relationship and influence between countries are deepening. China's position in the world economy.

China will assume the responsibility of the largest developing country in global economy, exchange rate, environment and even disease prevention and health. face

In this crisis, we have also made economic efforts within our power to deal with this crisis and made joint efforts with the international community to safeguard it.

Protect international financial stability and economic stability. At present, international and domestic are turning points, so we should pay attention to the debt empire like the United States.

Can the development model of the United States continue, will the hegemonic position of the US dollar be shaken, what will be the trend of the hegemonic position of the United States, and the US dollar

Whether it can return to reality, and so on. At present, these questions are still difficult to answer, but we must see their general trend clearly and appeal to the public in the long run.

Leveling a reasonable new international order, establishing a fair and reasonable new international monetary system, and giving developing countries more voice; Judging from the present stage.

Together with other countries, we should pay attention to the supervision of international capital flows around the world and find potential development opportunities.

Protect national economic and financial security. These efforts are long-term and arduous, and we should be fully prepared.