In a sense, the development history of a major international oil company can reflect the development history of the world oil industry. Every important stage of the development of the world oil industry has the direct participation of major international oil companies. In different historical stages, their role is very important.
(1) The emergence and development of international oil companies.
Rockefeller is the founder of the earliest international oil company, and also the founder of the business model and management model of international oil companies. In just three years, the Standard Oil Company he founded quickly increased the crude oil output from 1.889 to 1.6% to 26%, and its processing and sales market share in the United States was as high as 75% ~ 80%. In addition, it has promoted the development of international business of petroleum industry, set up branches all over the world quickly, and gradually gained a dominant position in the oil market in the United States and the world. It has also created a business model of integrated development of the upper, middle and lower reaches of oil companies, greatly reducing costs and risks. If the company loses money in the upstream exploration and development business, it can find a balance between the downstream refining and sales business. However, the life span of this oil empire is not long, because it is accused of "monopoly profiteering". 19 1 1 year, the U.S. government forced Standard Oil Group to disintegrate through anti-monopoly law, and its 92 companies were reorganized into 20 legally independent company groups. After the "Building" collapsed, Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and other oil companies survived, and they are also major oil giants today.
During the two world wars, the rapid development of emerging economies represented by the United States and the need of war greatly stimulated the demand for oil and promoted oil production. Exxon, Mobil, Texaco, Gulf and Chevron, which monopolized the American oil market, also developed at this stage. For a long time from 1940s to 1970s before the first oil crisis, they formed the famous "Seven Sisters" in the world oil history with British BP and Anglo-Dutch Shell, and made a fortune by obtaining oil development concessions in the Middle East, monopolizing the world oil market.
The two oil crises in the 1970s caused panic in the western world, which depended on oil resources. The oil "Seven Sisters" also suffered heavy losses and gradually faded out of the historical stage. Major international oil companies began to think about their own development model and how to enhance their competitiveness, and began new practices.
Since the mid-1980s, large-scale mergers and alliances have been taking place in the world oil field. Before 1997, most of these large-scale mergers and acquisitions occurred in the fields of downstream business (refining and sales) and natural gas business (including natural gas power generation), and many of them were only the merger of some businesses of the company. After 1998, in the face of the impact of low oil prices, more oil companies were involved in the wave of mergers and acquisitions, hoping to achieve complementary advantages through asset restructuring from the outside, further reduce costs and resist and reduce risks. The merger and acquisition of oil companies has evolved into a merger and acquisition frenzy characterized by the horizontal merger of large oil companies, which directly led to the formation of super international oil companies.
At the turn of the century, in the face of fierce competition in the oil industry, a new wave of mergers led by major international oil companies is an unprecedented reshuffle. After the dust settled, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell Group, BP, Total and Chevron Texaco formed a phalanx of super giants in the oil industry. This merger and alliance frenzy has strengthened the strength and position of international oil companies, and at the same time readjusted the main layout of today's oil industry.
(2) The development trend of major international oil companies in the new century.
Since the merger and reorganization of 1998 large oil companies, major international oil companies have basically completed the task of expanding assets and enhancing their competitive strength. Since the beginning of the new century, under the favorable situation of high international oil prices, while continuing to optimize and adjust their asset portfolios, they generally take establishing long-term competitive advantage and realizing sustainable development as the primary strategic focus and have entered a new stage of investing for long-term growth. The strategic adjustment of international oil companies in business strategy and competitive strategy embodies some brand-new characteristics. These strategic adjustments will have a great and far-reaching impact on the long-term performance of major international oil companies and even the competition and development trend of the world oil industry.
These new trends include: first, the implementation of strategic shift, based on long-term sustainable development, large-scale infrastructure construction, and vigorously build the next generation of core assets; The second is to optimize the asset portfolio, on the one hand, make up for the asset portfolio defects in key development areas through complementary acquisitions, on the other hand, choose the opportunity to dispose of marginal assets, optimize investment in old oil areas, and alleviate the recent problems of rising costs and declining return on investment; Third, actively intervene in unconventional oil fields such as natural gas synthetic oil (GTL), oil sands and heavy oil, re-attach importance to exploration, and establish competitive advantages in new key areas based on longer-term development.
One of the measures: long-term investment growth to build the next generation of core assets.
In the strategic succession of resources in major producing areas, major international oil companies mainly focus on the new global oil and gas discovery projects since 1990s, showing four main strategic directions, namely, mainly taking West Africa and the deep water area of the Gulf of Mexico, Russia, countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with open policies and liquefied natural gas business areas as important new sources of output growth in the future.
For example, BP Company shifted its strategic focus to five new profit centers, namely, Gulf of Mexico (deep water area), Trinidad (natural gas), Azerbaijan (oil around Caspian Sea), Angola (deep water area) and Russia (TNK-BP). The current output of the company's existing profit center is1.1.500 million tons, which is expected to decrease by 3% annually. The current output of the new profit center is 50 million tons, and it is estimated that the annual growth rate will be 15%. By 2008, the output will reach 1 100 million tons. Because the exploration and development costs and operating costs of the new profit center (USD 4/barrel oil equivalent and USD 2.4/barrel oil equivalent respectively) are lower than those of the existing production areas (it is found that the development costs are USD 6-7.5/barrel oil equivalent and the operating costs are about USD 5/barrel oil equivalent), the increase of the output of the new profit center and the decrease of capital expenditure will help to improve the overall return on investment of BP.
With strong financial and technical strength and influence in resource countries for many years, international oil companies have occupied a favorable competitive position in the above key areas and will be able to support the sustainable replacement of their global oil and gas reserves. According to the statistical analysis of 50 large-scale oil and gas development projects discovered by Goldman Sachs before the 1990s, international oil companies occupy an absolute advantage among them, accounting for 45% of the reserves in the 50 large-scale projects. Among them, BP, ExxonMobil, Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron Texaco and Eni account for 90% of the estimated net present value of 50 major projects.
ExxonMobil's production in West Africa, Gulf of Mexico, Middle East (Qatar LNG) and Caspian Sea is expected to reach 550 million barrels in the deepwater area of West Africa in 2006, accounting for 65,438+08% of the company's total output, from the current 8%, 65,438+04% in the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to 65,438+08% in Royal Dutch Shell West Africa (Nigeria). In 2006, it is estimated that the deepwater area in West Africa will increase production by 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent/day, accounting for 65,438+03% of the total output, and the proportion of Middle East production in the company's total output will increase from 23% in 2006,5438+0 to 33% in Chevron Texaco Gulf of Mexico, West Africa (Nigeria) and Caspian Sea (Kazakhstan). It is estimated that in 2006, the oil production in the deepwater area of West Africa will increase by 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent.
After 2006, several major international oil companies increased the main sources of oil and gas reserves and production.
The source distribution structure of large oil companies' alternative production makes them enter a period of high investment intensity. As most projects in the new area are capital-intensive exploration and development projects, it is estimated that in the next few years, 30% ~ 40% of the investment expenditure of major oil companies will be used for the construction of production facilities, pipelines or LNG upstream and terminal facilities and unconventional oil development facilities in deep water areas.
The rapid growth of infrastructure investment will lead to the increase of depreciation, loss and amortization expenses of oil companies, which will put great pressure on the company's recent investment return. However, in order to achieve long-term sustained growth, this is necessary. In addition to the predictable harvest of reserves, big oil companies can also build a new strategic oil and gas asset base and market base for themselves, which is also of great significance to the long-term healthy development of the global oil industry. It is estimated that in 20001-2010, the global investment in new infrastructure construction will reach about 343 billion US dollars (including the reconstruction of Iraq), from which 200 billion barrels of oil equivalent can be obtained. For this reason, the new round of large-scale energy infrastructure construction is regarded as another major turning point in the world oil industry since the 1970s, and it is also an unprecedented new development opportunity for big oil companies. Most of the new infrastructure construction projects are capital-intensive and technology-intensive transnational projects, which not only require participants to have stronger financial and technical strength, but also require them to have rich business skills and extensive industry influence, so international oil giants will still occupy a dominant position in the new development trend.
Investment in new energy infrastructure construction and corresponding reserve growth potential
The second measure: optimize the asset portfolio and adjust the order of profitable assets.
Since 2000, in order to improve the rate of return, large oil companies have been reducing the proportion of assets in old oil areas (such as the United States and Beihai), and at the same time, they have been selling international assets around their large-scale production infrastructure by mismatch strategy to achieve economies of scale. From 2000 to 2003, the asset disposal income of BP alone reached $25 billion. One problem related to asset disposal is the strategy of major international oil companies in the old oil region. In the United States, at present, most companies adopt the strategy of harvesting cash from old oil fields (that is, only collecting cash income, reducing or not reinvesting) and selling assets at the right time.
The third measure: based on the long-term, seize the development opportunity of unconventional oil business.
With the reduction of opportunities for large-scale conventional oil and gas discovery and development in the world, international oil companies have begun to shift their longer-term development goals to unconventional oil resources. In addition to using LNG and GTL as effective ways to commercialize natural gas reserves, international oil companies are also paying more and more attention to project opportunities such as Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan heavy oil.
(According to IEA, PetroleumEconomist, TDNewCrest) The categories in 2000, 2005, 20 10 and 20 10 have increased compared with 2000. % LNG (ten thousand barrels of oil equivalent/day) 236.0350.0600.0 154 natural gas synthetic oil (GTL) (ten thousand barrels of oil equivalent/day) 3.83+000.438+0 oil sand synthetic oil (ten thousand barrels of oil equivalent) day) 77.087.
Prospect of unconventional oil production in the world
In recent years, influenced by many factors, such as the rising price of natural gas, the falling supply cost of liquefied natural gas and the commercialization of natural gas resources promoted by resource countries, the global production and trade of liquefied natural gas have become increasingly active and become a new hot spot in the world oil and gas industry. It is estimated that 25% ~ 35% of global natural gas reserves will eventually be commercialized through liquefied natural gas. It is estimated that by 2008, the global investment in natural gas reserves development and LNG facilities will reach $654.38+050 billion. Therefore, international oil companies are very optimistic about the future development of LNG and seize the commanding heights in the field of LNG. In the past two years, international oil companies have participated in more than 30 LNG expansion projects and new projects under construction and planning. It is estimated that the global LNG annual production capacity will reach 300 million tons by 20 10. The development of LNG project will not only become the key to the commercialization of natural gas reserves of international oil companies, but also become an important source of profits for the company. Due to the cost reduction and long life of the project, the investment return level of LNG project is obviously higher than other projects, even higher than the average level of upstream exploration and development projects. If upstream production is combined with liquefaction, shipping and regasification assets to form an independent LNG business, it is predicted that by 20 10, this business will account for 5% ~ 10% of the used capital of major international oil companies and become the fourth largest business besides exploration and production, oil refining and chemical industry, and its importance may even exceed that of chemical products business.
GTL is a technology to convert natural gas into extremely clean refined products. Although this technology has existed for decades, due to the economic constraints of the project, except in South Africa, there is little investment in this technology. In recent years, with the breakthrough of technology, the economy of GTL project has been significantly improved. In addition, resource countries have provided preferential fiscal and tax terms for developing "trapped gas resources" (natural gas reserves that are difficult to be economically developed due to the lack of local consumption market and can only be developed through liquefied natural gas or GTL), and GTL projects have really been valued by resource countries and international oil companies. At present, there are at least 2500 trillion cubic feet of "trapped natural gas resources" in the world, accounting for about 25% of the total proven natural gas reserves. With the rapid growth of global demand for refined oil (it is predicted that it will increase from the current 25 million barrels per day to 28 million barrels per day in 20 10), especially the increasingly stringent environmental emission standards, GTL will have a broad market prospect because of its characteristics as a raw material for improving diesel quality in refineries. Shell has signed a letter of intent with Qatar Petroleum Company, and plans to build a production plant with a production capacity of 6.5438+400,000 barrels per day in GTL before 2009. ExxonMobil also signed a letter of intent with Qatar Petroleum Company to build a GTL project with a capacity of 6.5438+0.54 million barrels per day in 2065.438+0. It is estimated that in the next 10 year, these companies will invest $33 billion in the GTL project to realize the output of 750,000 barrels per day. It is particularly worth mentioning that ExxonMobil actively developed GTL technology as early as 20 years ago. The development of its proprietary technology AGC-2 1 costs 600 million US dollars and holds about 3,500 related international and American patents.
In recent years, the technical progress aimed at reducing gas and steam consumption in the mining and processing of asphalt mines has significantly improved the economy of oil sands development projects and accelerated the development progress of the projects. According to the analysis of authoritative organizations in Canada, it is predicted that the output of Canadian oil sands synthetic oil will increase to14800 barrels per day from 2004 to 20 10. Although there are still uncertainties in Canadian environmental laws and regulations, with the increase of crude oil prices, Canadian oil sands projects are attracting more and more attention from international oil companies.
Venezuela's overweight oil project has also attracted the interest of more international oil companies. Despite the harsh terms of the fiscal contract in Venezuela (the government revenue is 565,438+0%), Chevron Texaco and Royal Dutch Shell are still very concerned about the new project opportunities of $6 billion to $7 billion, and Total is also negotiating to expand the production capacity of its Sincor project.
Measure 4: Re-attach importance to exploration.
Affected by the drop of international oil price from 1998 to 1999, the exploration expenditure of international oil companies decreased by 27%, and this trend continued until 2003. According to the research of Wood McKinsey, an industry consulting company, in 2003, the exploration expenditure of major oil companies in the member countries of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) was US$ 8.9 billion, down by 4% over the previous year, while that of BP and Chevron Texaco decreased by 25% and 15% respectively. Due to the decrease of exploration expenditure, the exploration plan of OECD Oil Company 200 1-2003 * * has obtained 7.2 billion barrels of reserves, which is 20% lower than that of 8.9 billion barrels discovered in 1996- 1998, and the average replacement rate of organic reserves is 75%.
In addition to the impact of low oil prices, another reason for the decline in exploration investment of major international oil companies is that they focus on the development of low-risk proven reserves, and then development capital expenditures crowd out exploration funds. At the same time, technological progress has also created conditions for the development of oil and gas resources in deep water areas. There are more opportunities for international oil companies to develop projects, which requires a lot of investment in infrastructure to realize the commercialization of these reserves.
After years of relatively insufficient investment in exploration, major international oil companies began to pay attention to the exploration of new scenic spots. In 2003, Chevron, Repsol, Shell and Total all increased the area of exploration blocks, and the countries involved also increased.
The fifth measure: explore new hot spots of mergers and acquisitions, and the upstream rights and interests of Russia have become the main focus.
Capital operation activities centered on enterprise merger and acquisition, asset reorganization and strategic alliance have always been an important part of the business development strategy of major international oil companies, and an important means for them to achieve strategic goals such as scale expansion, resource allocation optimization and value maximization. Through the mega M&A activities since 1998, major international oil companies have basically completed the task of strengthening the scale of key assets, achieving synergy and reducing costs on a global scale. After Super M&A, the motivation of international oil companies to conduct M&A transactions between companies and assets began to shift to make up for the shortage of the company's asset portfolio and realize the optimal allocation of assets, and the main goal of M&A began to shift to those medium-sized oil companies with larger scale and better asset strategy matching.
Although there are still many uncertainties in the investment environment of Russian oil and gas industry, its rich undeveloped reserves have always attracted western oil companies. Because Russia's legislation on product sharing contract (PSAs) is imperfect and the approval process is lengthy, and Russia's current production focus is still on existing development projects, and its dependence on foreign oil capital is low, Russian local oil companies boycott PSAs, and it is very difficult for international oil companies to enter Russia through PSAs contracts. BP Company adopted the investment strategy of abandoning the production sharing agreement, acquired 50% shares of TNK-BP Company, and quickly gained the scale advantage in Russian oil projects through equity participation.
In addition, since most major international oil companies will still be in a period of intensive capital investment for a long time, in order to reduce costs and improve the return on investment, the possibility of merger among major companies is not ruled out. In this round of high oil price cycle, big oil companies have abundant cash flow, but most of their share prices have not kept pace with the international oil price. Therefore, from the perspective of the company acquirer, the current target company is rich in cash but cheap in stock price, which is not necessarily a favorable opportunity for trading.
Nowadays, the world oil industry is experiencing the influence of economic globalization, with more intense competition and greater risks. Multinational oil companies need to actively respond to external changes. Paying attention to investment projects with long-term growth potential, optimizing the company's asset portfolio and strengthening the control and development of oil resources, including unconventional oil resources, are undoubtedly favorable strategic choices made by these international oil companies.