China has had such a saying since ancient times: "Harmony is expensive, and long-term harmony is expensive." It seems to be a cycle. Historians also see cycles. They believe that the dynasty will turn from prosperity to decline, and the founding of the country will be prosperous and peaceful. When this dynasty is coming to an end, internal troubles and foreign invasion will follow. The cycle mentioned in these two concepts is not an inevitable historical law, but only describes a political community. Think of it as a complex system, gradually losing its ability to adjust, so that it can't face difficulties.

The impermanence of people or things

Let's talk about the concepts of separation and integration. China has a vast territory, and different geographical regions have different natural conditions. When they are combined into a community, they must complement each other without conflict. At the beginning of a dynasty, usually after chaos, a new order emerged, and various regions can readjust and form complementary relationships with each other; Coordinating and redistributing resources between different regions is also an important task of the new regime. It may take a long time to establish some new transportation networks and new management systems and reintegrate some conflict areas into one system. For example, after the division of the Han dynasty, it was not until the Tang dynasty that the new order of north-south coordination was rebuilt. It is a combination of the East and the West in the Han Dynasty, and the products and human resources are combined into a whole by several vertical branches. After the demise of the Han Dynasty, the invasion of northern minorities led to the split between the North and the South, each taking its own development route. Hundreds of years have passed, in fact, the distribution of products and population between the north and the south is different. The Grand Canal established between Sui and Tang Dynasties is a new supporting facility to unify the north and the south.

The relationship between the core and the boundary of each district is also different because of the new resource allocation. The core of Qin and Han Dynasties lies in the cooperation between Guanzhong and the Central Plains, and so did Sui and Tang Dynasties. But after the Song Dynasty, the core actually gradually moved south. Although the central government of the Northern Song Dynasty was in the north, its wealth and resources had already been transferred to the south, and even there were more talents in the south. This trend of moving south continues. The territory of the Southern Song Dynasty is only half that of the Northern Song Dynasty, but the prosperity of the country is better than that of the Northern Song Dynasty. Warm wind makes tourists drunk, and it is a natural phenomenon that Hangzhou becomes a continent. In the Ming dynasty, the difference between the north and the south was more obvious. The government reserved North Zhili and South Zhili as territories directly under the central government, and within these two Zhilis, they were not awarded to the prince. But in fact, North Zhili is the periphery of Beijing, and a large number of troops are stationed in these areas, while South Zhili is a rich land. Transporting grain to the north through the Grand Canal is the main way of grain supply after Beijing established its capital, both in Ming and Qing dynasties. In the late Qing Dynasty, the coastal areas, South China and Southeast China were the main resources to support the country. This depends on whether the central government can effectively grasp the resources in major areas.

Is the talent selection mechanism reasonable?

Let's talk about the boom-bust cycle. When Wang Chaogang rose, it seemed that there were talents everywhere; By the end of the dynasty, all the talents disappeared. This is not to say that talents in the sky and underground have different distributions at different time periods, but whether talents can be absorbed into state management institutions to maintain an effective management system. China has been an imperial system for generations, and the trend of centralization is becoming more and more serious. In other words, the ruling class is a closed group. In the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, heroes' clubs came from all directions with diverse and complex components. These talents add up to experienced people, and their cooperation can really form a strong team. A generation or two later, the hero's children have become playboys, only knowing pleasure, but not knowing anything. The royal family itself is a very small group. With the gradual adoption of the rule that imperial power is passed on to sons, the talent pool from which leaders can be selected is very small. Imperial power itself is unchallengeable, so the dignitaries attached to imperial power include eunuchs and slaves, who rule the whole huge country on behalf of imperial power. The longer this group lasts, the less likely it is to absorb new forces. Although China has a long imperial examination system, it can theoretically select the best talents in the country to enter the government; However, selecting talents from above must be the most obedient person. Therefore, although new people have entered this small circle, after two or three generations, the new forces in this small circle are just copies of the old forces. They will not have new ideas, nor will they have the courage to try new things. A small circle with absolute power, after two or three generations, is just a copy of the same character. After two or three generations, with the change of internal and external environment, new challenges will inevitably appear, and these leaders will be unable to cope.

Interaction between state power and social forces

China is a huge empire. Since the Qin and Han Dynasties, there has been some interaction between superiors and subordinates. Tens of millions to hundreds of millions of people are scattered in the vast territory of Xinjiang. They cannot be completely managed by state power, but they must create an environment of cooperation and coexistence. Therefore, in addition to the state's public power, there must also be social forces combined with the state to maintain the stability of social order. The so-called aristocratic families in the Qin and Han dynasties were partly powerful people attached to the political power and partly clan forces formed by local governments. In China, where all the people live, it is impossible for the government to completely rely on public power to manage the people, and it is also helpful for the government to govern the country. As long as the government manages the extended family everywhere, the extended family will manage its own members. The big family mentioned here is not necessarily a kinship group, but also a regional group formed around some celebrities. For example, the rammed earth building developed on the Loess Plateau in China is to ram loose loess particles into squares one by one. The straight one can be used as a wall, and the horizontal one can be used as a local foundation. Large families and aristocratic families are like rammed earth blocks made of loess particles. The most common form is the combination of blood and geography, and the clan and neighborhood form an organic whole together. The extended families and aristocratic families in Qin and Han Dynasties lasted for a long time in the history of China. Although the names are not necessarily the same, this structure has always existed, which is the basic condition for a huge population and region to combine into a big country. The social forces formed by this group aggregation can not only coordinate the balance between the rights and interests of the masses and political power, but also play the role of social welfare, seek social welfare for the masses in the group, and make the poor, widowed and lonely members rely on it.

The complementarity and mutual checks and balances between social and political forces can be seen in the United States today. However, in the United States, clan and neighborhood are not the basis for combining social forces. They combine many people in various ways, such as trade unions, political parties, enterprises and beliefs. The so-called combination of modern methods, like leaders and the masses, is also combined with interests. But in the United States, the combination method is voluntary, and individuals can choose by themselves.

The will of these grassroots social forces and their response to the regime's ruling style are all important factors for the stability of the regime. If there is not enough communication between the central power group and social forces, the exercise of public power is often not to maintain the normal operation of a political community, but to suppress society with public power; When social forces cannot influence political forces, social forces must break through the shackles and subvert the regime like dams.

In the traditional dynasty of China, the channel of public opinion feedback was based on the imperial examination system. Moreover, since the Song Dynasty, the imperial examination system has increasingly sought the balance of geographical distribution, and people in every small county will enter the imperial examination system and even eventually enter the central management system. But if there is a small circle around imperial power between government officials and the core of imperial power, the feedback from these officials will not affect the sealed power center. When government officials can't communicate with each other, the whole government is just a rigid group parasitic on imperial power, which can't effectively manage the country and solve problems for people waiting for help.

The core of the system should be open.

The rise and fall of a dynasty can be summarized in one sentence, that is, whether the core of public power is open. If this core thinks that self-cohesion is to protect itself, constantly protect the interests of group members, and even seek self-sustainability behind closed doors in this way, it is self-destruction. This process of self-isolation can last for 50 or 60 years at most, more than two or three generations, and when the chronic disease has become serious, the leaders in the core can no longer have the intention of opening up. As a result, the next three generations are gradually out of touch, and the government is gradually losing efficiency. Officials in the government can't find the ideal of government existence. They just enrich themselves through public power. With more and more corruption, they lost more and more people's hearts. Social forces can't correct political forces, so they have no choice but to lose everything. A new dynasty appeared in the chaos, and some people formed a new ruling group. So the dynasty began again and again, from rule to chaos, from chaos to death. Xing, the people suffer; People die and suffer.

If the core group of a government is open enough to continuously absorb fresh blood and face new problems, such a core will not be divorced from the people. The social forces formed by the aggregation of ordinary people can also constantly talk to public power, feed back the needs of ordinary people to public power, and make the national community a force for most ordinary people to seek stability and welfare. The above ups and downs can continue, or even never happen. Modern society has a democratic system, and the government can constantly update it to achieve this goal. Of course, in today's United States, the people in power are not necessarily in the government, but may also be in the business community. The combined force of large enterprises is enough to influence the regime. However, the leadership of large enterprises may also be a closed group. In fact, in recent years, because big companies are eager to make profits, the United States has paid little attention to social welfare. In this way, the combination of social and political forces represented by the business community has formed a relatively rigid political force. Even if a political party is changed, it is difficult for ordinary people to solve the problem. Therefore, even in democratic politics, there will be ups and downs, but its cycle may be longer than that of the three countries. Take the United States as an example, People's Republic of China (PRC) has been established for more than 200 years. Now, signs of decline have appeared. We only hope that in today's open society, new social forces will emerge to balance the combination of money and government power.

The instability of strongman politics

From Qin and Han Dynasties to Sui and Tang Dynasties, tyrannical politics often appeared, and even tyrannical usurpers and new dynasties were established. For example, during the Wei, Jin, Southern and Northern Dynasties, each dynasty was established by a strongman, and the transfer of political power was often just the replacement of the central rulers. When ordinary people opened their eyes, they suddenly found a new emperor. This change in dynasty composition will not last long for the country, and the people will not be disturbed too much. However, this regime change often only involves some newcomers in the central government. Some of them can feel the needs of ordinary people, while others steal political power just because they are at the center of power. They have no intention of changing the rigid central government. After the Song Dynasty, the phenomenon of usurpation almost no longer appeared. No matter how corrupt and incompetent the power core is, there is no powerful person to replace it. This phenomenon is partly due to the fact that after the Song Dynasty, the ethics of monarch and minister became authentic Confucianism. Generally, the scholar-officials who were born in the imperial examination dared not take the world by storm again, so they started a new stove. Only when the people are really poor and have no complaints, will they take risks and rise up and cause large-scale civil unrest. Bandits in the Ming Dynasty and repeated prohibitions in the Qing Dynasty are all examples in this regard.

At the end of the Qing Dynasty, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom had a huge momentum, and the Xiang army rose among the people with the power of scholar-officials, putting an end to troubled times in one fell swoop. However, Zeng Guofan and Li Hongzhang knew that the Qing government was corrupt, but they did not dare to replace it. At the end of the Qing Dynasty, people everywhere called for reform and change, but senior officials and ministers in Xinjiang dared not coerce the central government to change. Even during the Boxer Rebellion, the chief culprit, Empress Dowager Cixi, fled to xi 'an, and the southeast provinces dared to propose self-protection in the southeast, but did not dare to ask Empress Dowager Cixi to release Guangxu and set up another regime that could carry out political reform and reform. These two examples just show how powerful the power that binds people's hearts is when ideology is turned into reality by imperial edict.

Article from The Rise and Fall of Great Powers Author: Xu Zhuoyun Publishing House: Shanghai Culture Publishing House.