In fact, farmers are more concerned about "what to do". As the saying goes, "into the pit is easy to get out of the pit". For some farmers who still insist on "surviving", the trend of raising pigs in the next 2-3 years is what they should and must collect.
In 2022, not only the pig industry, but also the education industry has undergone earth-shaking changes. Bian Xiao remembers that Yu Hongmin, the founder of New Oriental, once asked himself: "I can leave completely, but what about 50,000 brothers and sisters?" .
This sentence is actually the inner portrayal of our pig farmers, especially large and medium-sized pig farms. Quitting means that the pig farm is vacant, the employees are unemployed, and the initial investment is wasted, but not everyone has mines.
It is meaningless for us to talk about how to into the pit now. Perhaps because of the "profiteering" in the previous two years, or perhaps because of factors such as entrepreneurship. Since it is difficult to get out of the pit, look directly at the problem and seek development.
In this pig cycle, various forces in the pig industry can be described as "fierce fighting", and heroes are made in time. After this battle, Mu Yuan shares stood out from the tight encirclement and sat on the throne of the pig industry, while Zhengbang Technology was heavily in debt and only sought self-protection; New Hope and Haida Group, the upstream feed enterprises in pig industry, have made a lot of money, but the news that Zheng Hong Science and Technology, the first stock of feed listed, is about to change hands. The performance of Shuanghui Group, a downstream slaughter enterprise in the pig industry, is equally bright, but some slaughter enterprises are submerged in the long river of history.
Perhaps it is Muyuan, New Hope, Haida Group, Shuanghui, etc. It has become the "spiritual food" for pig farmers to continue raising pigs, supporting pig farmers to tide over the current difficulties.
But pig farmers should understand that other people's achievements, skills and experience will always belong to others.
Muyuan shares can become a leader among many pig enterprises, thanks to the company's control of breeding costs.
According to the latest official data, the current hog industry cost is about 7.5-9 yuan. Most small and medium-sized pig farms and free-range households can control the breeding cost below 8 yuan, while the cost of large pig farms is around 8-5 9 yuan, and some pig enterprises even surpass 9 yuan.
According to Muyuan, its current breeding cost is around 7.8 yuan/kg, which is quite excellent. Have you calculated the breeding cost of your own pig farm?
We found our own problem and then went back to the original problem. What is the trend of raising pigs in the next 2-3 years?
First of all, we have to face the overall decline in the demand for pork, and the proportion of pork in the meat consumption structure has declined. This is what the pig industry doesn't want to see, but it really happened in a subtle way.
Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the whole pork industry chain monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that pork consumption in China may increase slightly first and then decrease in the future.
In addition to the changes in residents' consumption structure, the sensitivity to changes in meat prices has also been significantly improved, especially under the influence of emergencies, which has brought great uncertainty to pork consumption in the future.
Not only is the pork consumption side uncertain, but the supply side is also affected by many factors. First of all, African swine fever and other diseases have taken root and sprouted in China, which has become a hidden danger threatening the productivity of pigs.
Secondly, environmental protection has always been the high-voltage line of policy. Recently, the news of dismantling pig farms due to environmental protection is not uncommon.
In this regard, 20021officially issued the "Implementation Plan for the Regulation of Pig Production Capacity (Provisional)", aiming at regulating the pig production capacity and striving for the stable development of the pig industry. Compared with the countries with relatively high scale of pig industry in the world, the pig cycle of pig industry will be lengthened in the future, and the fluctuation of pig price market will be flat.
Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that it is unlikely that the price of live pigs will rise sharply during the African swine fever in previous years, and it is expected that the price of pig food will run within the overall reasonable range.
In the future, the pig industry will no longer make huge profits. What farmers can do is to "cultivate self-cultivation", calm down and make a good calculation, analyze and list their own problems realistically, then really face them, and finally revise the subsequent business model to pursue a greater chance of becoming a leftover.
If you can still firmly follow the path of raising pigs after many thoughts, please don't give up. The night before dawn is the darkest. Only by "surviving" the past can we see the light again.