Major listed companies in food safety-related industries: At present, the listed companies in domestic food safety-related industries mainly include Longping Hi-Tech (000998. SZ) and Fengle Seed Industry (0007 13. SZ)。

The core data of this paper: China's grain output and changes, China's soybean consumption structure, and China's foreign dependence on grain crops.

There is a big gap in soybean consumption in China.

China is a big grain producer in the world. In 2020, the grain output will account for about 24% of the world's grain output, and the grain supply will be relatively sufficient. In 2020, China's annual grain output will reach 669.492 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.85%.

From the perspective of China's grain production structure, in 2020, corn, rice and wheat are the main basic grain crops in China, and the total output of the three types of grain crops accounts for more than 90% of the annual grain output in 2020. The output of bean products only accounts for 3.42%, about 22.87 million tons.

Judging from the consumption situation, the per capita consumption changes of the three major food crops show great differences. Although cereal crops are still the most important food crops in China, the per capita consumption shows a downward trend, beans show an upward trend, and potatoes show a slight fluctuation.

The edible consumption of soybean only accounts for 12.5%, and crushing consumption is the main use of soybean. In 2065,438+09, crushing consumption accounted for more than 84% of China's total soybean consumption, which was the main reason for China's soybean consumption. Therefore, roughly speaking, the annual demand for soybeans in China exceeds 1 100 million tons.

Soybean is highly dependent on foreign imports.

China's soybean production is far less than China's soybean consumption, and China's annual soybean consumption gap is mainly made up by imports. According to the external dependence of China's grain crops, all the grain crops except soybeans are basically self-sufficient, and most of them are imported only to enrich consumer varieties and increase consumers' choices. However, China's soybean is highly dependent on foreign countries.

In 20 19, China's soybean dependence on foreign countries reached 83.09%. This means that more than 80% of soybeans consumed in China are imported.

Judging from China's net soybean imports in recent years, it also shows a fluctuating upward trend. In 2020, despite the epidemic, the annual soybean import reached a new high, reaching 10033 million tons. It can be seen that China's soybean products are still facing severe supply security risks.

Brazil and the United States are the main sources of soybean imports from China.

According to the regional structure of global soybean production, in 2020, global soybeans are mainly produced in Brazil, the United States, Argentina, China and India, and the total soybean output of the five countries accounts for nearly 90% of the global output. Among them, Brazil and the United States account for more than 30% of soybean production.

It can also be seen from the regional structure of soybean imports in China that China mainly imports soybeans from Brazil, the United States and Argentina, among which the amount of soybeans imported from Brazil accounts for 60.59% of China's total imports in 2020, and the amount imported from the United States also accounts for 22.08%.

Trade friction has a great influence on soybean import and export.

20 18, Sino-US trade friction broke out, and the United States imposed tariffs on China. As the first round of countermeasures, China also imposed tariffs on 50 billion US dollars of commodities, including soybeans. This has a great impact on American soybean exports. In 20 17, nearly 60% of American soybeans were exported to China, but in 20 18, the proportion dropped below 20%. With the easing of trade friction in the past two years, US soybean exports to China have rebounded.

But correspondingly, the final result of trade friction is always mutual. After reducing soybean imports from the United States, China had to seek to import more soybeans from Brazil at a higher cost.

Genetically modified soybeans usher in development opportunities

The main reason for the shortage of soybean production in China is not the shortage of planting area, but the limitation of transgenic technology. Due to the uncertainty of the impact of genetically modified crops on human health after long-term consumption, China has strict control over genetically modified crops. You must apply for a safety certificate first, then pass the examination and approval and obtain a production license before you can enter commercialization. However, the approval process of biosafety certificate in China is strict and the time period is long, so there is no genetically modified soybean variety that can be mass-produced in China at present. Although transgenic technology is still limited in China, it has been widely used in the world, especially in soybean, a common food crop. In 20 19, the global planting area of transgenic soybeans reached 910.9 million hectares, accounting for 74.92% of the total soybean harvest area in that year.

Because the cultivation of genetically modified soybeans has not been approved, the soybean production in China is far below the world average. At present, China's soybean production is only about .95 tons per hectare/kloc-0, which is lower than the world average of 2.77 tons per hectare and far lower than the United States' 3. 19 tons per hectare.

With the increasingly prominent problems, China is also aware of the safety of soybeans. 202 1, China has approved the first variety safety certificate of genetically modified soybeans, and domestic genetically modified soybeans will usher in development opportunities.

The above data refer to the Forecast and Analysis Report on Production and Marketing Demand and Investment of Soybean Processing Industry in China by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.