Macroeconomic trend is the most basic factor affecting the stock market trend. The stock market is an important part of the whole national economy. Regarding how the novice stock trader should look at the macroeconomic trend, Bian Xiao sorted out the macroeconomic trend here for your reference. I hope everyone will gain something in the reading process!

The history of the development of the securities market and the experience of countless successful investors show that the development trend of the real economy, that is, the overall trend and structural changes of the national economy, affects the income of the whole investment. In China, an investment environment with imperfect development of the securities market,

In 2008, with the intensification of the international financial crisis, China's real economy also suffered an unprecedented impact. The downward economic growth, the obvious contraction of external demand, the increase of urban unemployed population and other factors have made everyone in China feel the profound meaning of the word "crisis". The stock market is the most sensitive to the subprime mortgage crisis, and the whole stock market began to decline unilaterally after experiencing a huge oscillation.

By October 28th, 2008, the stock market hit a new low. In this case, on1October 9, 2008, 165438+ China municipal government announced that it would invest a total of 4 trillion yuan in the economic stimulus plan by the end of 20 10. This timely launch of the "Warm Winter Plan" to stimulate the economy has made people and the world see China's belief in overcoming the crisis. Then the stock market began to rebound.

If retail investors have a clear understanding of the macroeconomic environment, they will not make the mistake of buying stocks at a high level and cutting meat at a low level in operation, but will be able to follow the trend according to the economic situation. Therefore, to study the stock market, we must first study the macroeconomic situation. If we have a correct understanding and forecast of the economic situation, we can say that the securities investment activities have achieved half success.

The operating performance of listed companies is obviously affected by the macro-economy. If the economic situation improves and the market is prosperous, the performance of listed companies will rise, and the stock price will inevitably rise. On the other hand, if the economic situation weakens and the market is weak, the performance of listed companies will decline, and the stock price will inevitably fall. Therefore, investors need to carry out macro-fundamental analysis to determine the general climate of securities investment and choose suitable investment opportunities.

The economic trend of a country is the judgment of the country's economy as a whole, mainly through a series of economic indicators. Therefore, through the analysis of domestic macroeconomic trends, that is, the analysis and grasp of these indicators, we can judge the economic situation and then speculate on the general trend of the stock market.

Generally speaking, if a country's (even the world's) economy develops healthily and steadily and the macroeconomic situation is excellent, the stock market will generally continue to climb, and investors can get returns by participating in stock market investment. 1993- 1995 During the three years, in order to solve the problems of overheating and unreasonable industrial structure, the stock market came out of the three-year bear market by implementing the policy of rectifying economic contraction. From June 65438 to July 0994, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a record low of 333 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index also hit a record low of 97 points. Many stock market investors have suffered huge losses. Since 2004, the great impetus of China's economic system reform has promoted China's rapid economic growth, the exchange rate formation mechanism has been gradually reasonable, the reform of financial institutions has been fruitful, the RMB has continued to appreciate, and the comprehensive national strength has been rapidly improved, thus brewing a big bull market in 2006-2007. From this, we can draw a clear conclusion: stock market investors must pay attention to the macroeconomic situation of the country, judge the general trend of the stock market according to the macroeconomic situation, and decide the operation strategy.

Analyze macroeconomic indicators and judge the trend of the stock market

The trend of the stock market and policy orientation are two opposite braking mechanisms. Generally speaking, the trend of stocks is faster than the impact of the economy on the market, which means that the stock market will react in advance. On the contrary, the policy orientation should lag behind the market trend, which has a forward inertia, but it should be consistent with the policy orientation after all. Based on these characteristics, it is necessary to comprehensively consider several aspects when analyzing and judging the general trend in order to draw a correct conclusion.

In the bull market, the stock price trend is very strong and the rising momentum is fierce. Generally, there is a continuous and comprehensive upward trend, and the bottom will be higher than the bottom and the peak will be higher. At this time, retail investors actively buy stocks, and most of them are profitable. But in the short market, instead, the stock price will be lower and lower after wave, making it difficult to cope with the avalanche. If retail investors do not have the necessary macro information and retreat in time, they will inevitably be trapped and suffer heavy losses. Many people made a lot of money in the bull market, but lost all their money in the short market.

However, there is no clear sign and boundary between bull market and bear market. The end of a bull market is often the beginning of a bear market, and the end of a bear market is often the beginning of a bull market. As a retail investor, the purpose of entering the stock market is to make money. If it is transferred from a short market to a long market, even if it is empty, there is no loss; Retail investors who have just been immersed in the excitement and fanaticism of the stock market soaring from bull market to short position will be pushed into unfathomable ice caves and trapped without cutting meat. This shows that as a retail investor, a very important skill is to accurately judge whether the stock market has changed from a long market to a short market.

There is no absolute formula law in the stock market. You can only hear the news and follow the rules. For the judgment of the short market, according to the research and analysis of investment experts, there are the following signs for reference:

1. Economic indicators.

Retail investors can analyze whether economic growth tends to decline according to various economic indicators and prosperity policy signals issued by relevant government departments. Such as economic growth forecast issued by relevant government departments, monthly growth rate of industrial production, unemployment rate and other indicators. If the economy shows signs of recession, the stock market will lack practical support, and even if there is a so-called "capital market", it will be difficult to last.

2. Inflation.

Inflation not only increases the operating costs of enterprises due to the rising prices and wages, but also reduces the purchasing power of most low-income and fixed-income people, thus indirectly affecting the profits of enterprises. At the beginning of inflation, the stock market will be crazy for a while. Because of the advantages of low-priced raw materials, finished products and real estate, enterprises can maintain profits, even exceeding normal. At the same time, inflation increases the money supply, which can stimulate production and increase company profits, thus increasing distributable dividends. The increase in dividends will make the stock more attractive, so the stock price will rise. But this momentum is short-lived. Once inflation worsens, the stock market will inevitably fall into a short trend.

3. Interest rate.

If inflation continues, the government will inevitably take financial austerity measures to stabilize people's livelihood and curb financial speculation, forcing interest rates to rise. Rising interest rates, rising business costs and relatively weak profitability have a negative impact on the stock market, which may also make the stock market tend to bear market.

4. Real estate.

Generally speaking, the real estate boom and the stock market rise and fall almost synchronously, that is to say: the real estate boom will be active, and the stock market will be active; On the other hand, if the real estate boom declines, it is difficult for the stock market to maintain prosperity and enter the short market.

5. Political situation.

A prosperous stock market depends on a stable politics and a stable society. If the political situation is turbulent, the economic development is affected and the society is chaotic, it will inevitably reduce the willingness of enterprises to invest and turn the stock market into a short market.

6. Stock market dynamics, specifically whether there is an irrational surge.

Once there is an irrational surge in the stock market, there are bound to be several characteristics: first, the P/E ratio of most stocks is high, which is obviously disproportionate to the actual profitability of listed companies;

Second, the stock prices of small-cap stocks and investment stocks have soared continuously;

Third, the price increase is shrinking, even showing infinite rise;

Fourth, the stock market is crowded and full of optimism, indicating that the stock market is overheated;

Fifth, various technical analysis indicators show that the stock market is seriously overbought.

Looking back at every stock market crash in the past, we have to go through this irrational skyrocketing stage. For example, the Wall Street stock market plunged twice in September 1929 and 1987, the Hong Kong stock market plunged in June 1973, and the Taiwan Province stock market turned into a bear market many times in June 1974, June 1985 and June 1987. The three stock market crashes 1993, 1997 and 200 1 occurred after the stock market soared.

There are many signs that the stock market will change from a long market to a short market. Retail investors should pay attention to the above indicators and judge the trend of the stock market according to the changes of these indicators.

Tip:

1. The market trend has a forward inertia, but it must be consistent with the policy orientation after all.

2. If retail investors want not to lose money, they must be able to accurately judge whether the stock market has changed from a long market to a short market.

In the economic recession, the stock market will turn from bull market to bear market.

Import and export trade will shrink sharply, and the stock market will turn from a bull market to a short market.

With the intensification of inflation, the stock market will turn from a bull market to a bear market.

6. With the rise of interest rate, the stock market will change from bull market to bear market.

7. When the real estate boom declines, the stock market will turn from a bull market to a bear market.

8. The stock market will skyrocket irrationally, and the stock market will change from a long market to a short market.

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