1, the simplest method
Find the lowest price in the last 30 trading days. Then we expect the cross K line with the largest turnover, turnover rate greater than 10 and the longest shadow line, and then take the average price of the day before and the day after, which is basically close to the recent main cost.
2. Use obv index to judge.
When the share price of a stock falls sharply, the value of 0 obviously stops falling and stabilizes in the range of 0-20, and moves horizontally for more than a month, indicating that the market is in a long consolidation period, and most investors have no patience to leave. But at this time, it often indicates that the energy of shorting is gradually decreasing, and the funds absorbed on dips are gradually increasing, and the big market may happen at any time.
When the value of 0 can effectively climb upward, it means that the main cargo absorption stage has been completed, and investors can calculate the cost price of the main cargo absorption stage according to the stock price of this cargo absorption stage. The calculation method is: the average price of the goods absorption area (highest price+lowest price).
An effective way to track whether traders are in or out is to learn to use OBV indicators.
OBV index is also called energy tide and net turnover index.
The calculation formula is: OBV of the current day = OBV of the previous day+trading volume of today.
Note: If the closing price of the day is higher than that of the previous day, it is positive, otherwise it is negative and the flat price is zero.
1. In the securities market, price, trading volume, time and space are the four elements of technical analysis, so we should make it clear that OBV, as an indicator of trading volume, cannot be used alone, but must be used together with price curve to play its role.
2. The choice of 2.OBV indicator direction reflects the change of interest of mainstream funds in holding positions. OBV indicators usually have three curve directions: upward, downward and horizontal. N and v are the most common forms.
3. When the stock price rises, the OBV indicator goes up synchronously, and the signal reflected in the market or individual stocks is a bullish signal of price rise, indicating that the market's interest in holding positions is increasing. On the other hand, when the stock price rises, the OBV indicator is in a downward or horizontal state at the same time, which is actually a manifestation of insufficient upward momentum, indicating that the market interest in holding positions has not changed much, so the upward trend of the market or individual stocks will be difficult to maintain.
4. When the stock price falls, the OBV indicator goes down synchronously, and the signal reflected in the market or individual stocks is a signal that the downward momentum increases. The release of short-selling kinetic energy in the market will inevitably lead to a sharp drop in stock prices. In this case, the first thing investors should think of is to set up a stop loss position and leave the market to wait and see. In this case, avoiding risks becomes the first point.
5. When the stock price changes, the OBV indicator is in a horizontal state, which is the most common in the performance of the OBV indicator. OBV indicator is in a horizontal state. First of all, in the current market, the interest in holding positions has not changed much. Secondly, the current market or individual stocks are in a state of adjustment. The best market behavior of investors is not to participate in adjustment. When the stock price falls, the OBV indicator is in a horizontal state, which is the best representation that the stock price falls without volume cooperation. The extension of the decline time of stock price shrinkage will certainly bring investors a full-line lock-up.
Example: Variety Shares (600770). Variety stock is the leading stock of network stock in 2000. From the K-line pattern of weekly stocks, after hitting a record high of 64.27 yuan on February 25, 2000, the stock price began to fall, during which the index fell synchronously, leaving a long downward diagonal line under the weekly stock index, which was a typical shipment trend of Zhuang stocks, and then the stock price fell for a long time. Such technical graphics were replicated in later Yinguangxia, Century Zhongtian and Xugong Technology.
3. Calculate the main cost with the turnover rate.
The calculation formula of turnover rate is: turnover rate = volume/circulation disk × 100%. What we need to calculate is the turnover rate from the time when the dealer starts to build a position to the time when it starts to pull up. How to confirm that the banker has started to open a position? The reference value of weekly K-line chart is the greatest, and the moving average system of weekly K-line has changed from short position to long position, which proves that there are bookmakers involved. Therefore, the weekly MACD indicator golden fork can be regarded as a sign that the banker begins to open a position and is the starting point for calculating the turnover rate.
Generally speaking, it takes about 40-60 days for mid-line bookmakers to open positions, that is, 8- 12 weeks, with an average of 10 weeks. From the weekly K-line chart, we can objectively think that the weekly average price line of 10 is the main cost area. This algorithm has some errors, but it will not deviate from 10%. As a bookmaker, the stocks he trades have risen by at least 50%, most of which are 100%. Generally speaking, if the increase of a stock from the lowest point to the highest point of a wave of market is 100%, the normal profit of the banker is 40%. After we calculate the cost of the main force, multiply this price by 150%, which is the lowest target position of the dealer.