In the 1990s, Japanese house prices plummeted. For the reality of the skyrocketing property market in various places under the current Sino-US trade dispute environment, it is worth everyone to calm down and think about it, look at the past road, and analyze where the future property market will go. Because the sharp rise and fall of the Japanese property market is not only a domestic problem, but also a complex international conflict background. The main symptoms are as follows:
1, the sharp appreciation of the yen hit Japanese export enterprises, and the Japanese government adopted a loose monetary policy to support enterprises to maintain high export volume and reduce corporate debt.
2. The interest rate has been lowered for five consecutive times, from 5% of 1985 to 2.5% of 1987, and the money supply has increased by more than two digits for four consecutive years, resulting in a large excess of liquidity in the domestic market.
3. Lowering the interest rate keeps the production and export of Japanese enterprises, and the foreign exchange earned by enterprises keeps pouring into Japanese banks. In order to expand its operating profit, the Bank of Japan tried its best to make use of ultra-low interest rates to issue loans.
4. Compared with ordinary enterprise loans, the risk of real estate mortgage loans is lower, so Japanese commercial banks invest their funds in this field. A large amount of bank loans flowed into the real estate market and began to push up housing prices. From 65438 to 0987, house prices in Tokyo rose by 53%. Those company employees who are immersed in their work are afraid of rising house prices and are busy borrowing money from banks to buy houses. And real estate developers even organized a group of unemployed people to queue up late at night as buyers, thus stirring up the mighty wave of buying houses by the whole people.
5. 1987 A commercial house of a group in Tokyo was drawn by lot, with a total price of 62 million yen and 55 square meters, and the lottery rate was 1/3700.
6. The influx of hot money led to a rapid rise in stock prices and house prices, thus attracting more international capital to speculate in Japan, the yen continued to appreciate, the stock market house prices continued to rise, and the bubble was getting bigger and bigger.
7. Bank loans and hot money poured into the real estate industry at the same time, and Japanese land prices began to soar wildly. 1989, the land price in Japan climbed to 2 137 trillion yen, while at the end of 1998, the lowest price was 1388 trillion yen, and the bubble value of 749 trillion yen was equivalent to twice Japan's gross national product. At that time, there was a joke that only the land price in the 23rd district of Tokyo could buy the whole United States.
8. No.5 1989, Tomoko, Ginza, Tokyo, lives in front of the guild hall. At that time, the public land price announced by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport was 1 m2 1 10,000 yen, equivalent to $970,000. This is also the highest land price in the world that won the Guinness World Record that year. Today, the price is 40 million yen, almost 2/3 lower.
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Crisis after the collapse of house prices
From 65438 to 0990, the proportion of loans in Japan's productive industries fell to 25%, and the proportion of loans in non-productive industries rose to 37%. Japan's seemingly prosperous economy has become a veritable castle in the air, and the crisis is imminent.
The Japanese government is also aware of the economic bubble, and the irrational property market is shaking Japan's two basic national policies of "basic farmland system" and "rejuvenating the country through science and technology". As a result, the Japanese government suddenly contracted its monetary policy.
First, raise interest rates in the short term. 1In May 1989, the central bank raised the ultra-low interest rate, which had been maintained for more than two years, from 2.5% to 3.25%, and then raised it four times in a row, reaching 6% in August 1990.
Second, the government was suddenly forced to tighten credit and control the total amount of real estate credit. 199 1 year, commercial banks stopped lending to real estate, and the growth rate of M2 dropped sharply from the 90-year average of 1 1.68% to the 9 1 year average of 3.66%, far below the nominal GDP growth rate of 6% in that year. The macro-control policy was too strong, and the bubble soon burst.
The first thing that punctured was the stock market bubble. 199065438+1October 12 was the darkest day in the history of Japanese stock market.
On the same day, the Nikkei index plummeted and the Japanese stock market plummeted by 70%. Since then, the Japanese stock market has fallen into a bear market for 20 years.
The stock price has fallen sharply, the scale of credit has declined, and almost all banks, enterprises and securities companies have suffered huge losses. The bankruptcy of the company led to the influx of a large number of real estate owned by it into the market, and suddenly the real estate market appeared oversupply, and the house price showed a downward trend. At the same time, with the narrowing of the yen arbitrage space, international capital began to flee.
199 1 year, Japan's real estate market began to collapse, and a huge real estate bubble burst from Tokyo and quickly spread to Japan.
1992, the Japanese government issued a "land price tax" policy, which made matters worse, stipulating that all land holders must pay a certain percentage of tax every year. Owners who hoarded a lot of land during the real estate boom sold their land one after another, and the Japanese real estate market immediately entered an era of "oversupply".
The superposition of several factors has accelerated the overall collapse of Japan's real estate economy. The housing prices in the three metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya), which were much higher than the national average during the bubble period, also fell the worst after the bubble burst, and the decline exceeded the national average.
Since the bubble burst in 1990, the average house price in Japan has been declining for 16 years.
From 1990 to 2006, the national average house price dropped by 49.56%, basically returning to the level before the real estate bubble. A large number of enterprises went bankrupt, and the number of bankruptcies of banks and real estate enterprises exceeded 3,000. Japan's employment pressure is unprecedented, and low wages and long working hours have almost become a chronic disease in Japan, so NEET took the lead in becoming popular in Japan.
Reference: Phoenix Finance-China property market is like Japan in 1990s. What will happen if house prices plummet?