On this basis, we hydropower professionals can find that the role of energy research institutions in China's hydropower emission reduction has not been fully tapped. We believe that in the future, the proportion of hydropower in China's total power generation should never be only 12%, but far higher than the current 18%, or even more than 20%.
If it can be proved that the proportion of hydropower in China's future power generation energy can reach 20%, then the existing prediction conclusion of Energy Research Institute can be revised as follows: By 2050, China will have "50% wind power, 23% solar energy, 20% hydropower, 6% nuclear power and 0% thermal power". So what?
Furthermore, we can find that there is basically no need to worry about the realization of 100% non-fossil energy power generation in China in 2050. Because the roadmap of Energy Research Institute is "wind power accounts for 50%, solar energy accounts for 23%", and China has huge hydropower potential, it is entirely possible to "replace thermal power with more hydropower".
Because of the existence of the third-class Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the world, China is very rich in hydropower resources, which is definitely the first in the world. At present, China's hydropower installed capacity (356 million kilowatts) and annual power generation (1.3 trillion kwh) account for more than a quarter of the world's total, and the gap between China's hydropower and the world's second is at least three times.
But at present, many people in society (even some experts who study energy issues) think that the hydropower development potential in China is not great. This is because until the turn of the century, the officially announced hydropower development resources in China were only10.7 trillion kWh/year. After the general survey of hydropower resources in 2006, the revised figure was 2.47 trillion. A few years later, the 13th Five-Year Plan of 20 16 rose to 3 trillion yuan.
The complexity and arduousness of hydropower resources exploration often make the exploitable resources increase greatly. Even with the conservative 3 trillion yuan/year officially promulgated in the 13th Five-Year Plan, less than 44% of hydropower resources have been developed and utilized in China at present (by the end of 20 19).
If it can reach the average level of hydropower development in developed countries (about 70% to 90%), the potential of hydropower development in China will be at least half in the future. It is estimated that hydropower in China will provide at least 2.6 trillion kWh of electricity every year.
How much does this electricity do to China's energy? Assuming that the electricity consumption in China reaches its peak, the demand of 8,000 kWh per person per year is about 1 1.2 trillion kWh, based on the population of1400 million. At present, the research and prediction of various peak electricity consumption in China is only about 12 trillion kwh at the highest.
That is to say, China Hydropower (with an annual output of 2.6 trillion kWh) will provide at least 20% of electricity in the power composition at the peak of China in the future, which is much higher than the current 18%. In a word, China's resource endowment shows that the future role of hydropower in China will not be less than now, but will increase.
Besides abundant resources, China's world-leading hydropower technology has also become a solid foundation for resource development.
In 2004, the total installed capacity of hydropower in China exceeded 1 100 million kW, surpassing the United States to become the first in the world. Although China is rich in hydropower resources, the task of hydropower development and construction in China is extremely arduous, so the difficulties encountered and problems to be solved in the process of hydropower development in China are almost unprecedented.
It can be said that since China's reform and opening up accelerated the development and construction of hydropower, China Hydropower began to climb to the commanding heights of hydropower technology in the world. At present, the largest hydropower station in the world is the Three Gorges in China. The highest RCC dam (203m) in China is Huangdeng Hydropower Station. The highest concrete face rockfill dam (233m) in the world is Shuibuya Hydropower Station in China. The highest hyperbolic arch dam (305m) in China is Jinping I Hydropower Station. The rockfill dam of Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station under construction in China will reach a height of 3 12m, and will become the highest dam in the world after completion, setting all world records.
The construction of these largest hydropower dams in the world needs a series of cutting-edge engineering and technical support. It can be said that in all these engineering technologies, China has been at the forefront of the world. At present, in the manufacturing of hydro-generator sets, not only most of the hydro-generator sets with a single capacity of 700,000 kilowatts in the world are installed in China, but also the hydro-generator sets with a single capacity of 800,000 kilowatts and 6,543.8+0,000 kilowatts are only available in China.
This kind of hydropower development technology, which combines modern science and technology, makes China's hydropower development capacity continuously enhanced and the exploitable resources continuously expanded. Coupled with the existing long-distance, ultra-high voltage and ultra-high voltage transmission technology in China, there is no restrictive technical obstacle to the development of hydropower in China in theory.
In a word, today, China's hydropower is the first in the world. No matter from the scale, benefits, achievements, or from the level of planning, design, construction and equipment manufacturing, it is already an absolute world leader. Ordinary people may not imagine that China's hydropower is ahead of the world, in fact, it far exceeds the industries that are often advertised, such as high-speed rail and nuclear power. Although China has advanced technologies such as high-speed rail and nuclear power, it still has competitors in the international market. However, in the international bidding in the field of water conservancy and hydropower, at present, almost all powerful competitors are China companies. We don't know whether China's absolute leadership in the whole industry can be realized in our history, but it is absolutely unprecedented.
Why is the degree of hydropower development in developed countries generally above 70% to 90%, with an average of above 80%? In fact, when developed countries developed hydropower, there was no international requirement for carbon emission reduction. However, the fundamental reason why their hydropower must develop to a higher level mainly lies in the development of social modernization and civilization, and it is especially necessary to solve the problem of regulating water resources by developing hydropower.
For example, the famous Hoover Dam in the United States and the main driving force of cascade hydropower development in Tennessee Valley are actually the needs of social development for effective regulation of water resources. Therefore, these countries often stop developing other hydropower resources after meeting the demand of water resources regulation.
In some countries that want to solve energy problems by developing hydropower, the degree of hydropower development is generally high. For example, the degree of hydropower development and utilization in France, Switzerland and other countries has exceeded 95%. In short, no matter what the situation is, the general experience of the international community shows that if the degree of hydropower development in a country is less than 70%, it is difficult to solve the problem of water resources regulation in this country.
Because the degree of hydropower development in a country is often proportional to the degree of water resources development. Therefore, if hydropower development cannot reach a certain level, the water resources problem in this country will definitely not be solved well. At present, because the degree of hydropower development in China is less than 44%, the contradiction of water resources regulation in China is very prominent.
China's land area and total water resources are almost the same as those of the United States. However, the total storage capacity of reservoirs in China is only over 900 billion cubic meters, and that in the United States is 13.5 trillion. We still need to increase the total reservoir capacity by about 50% to reach the level of water resources regulation in the United States.
The population of the United States is only about 1/5 of that of China. In other words, if it can't exceed the level of hydropower development in the United States, the contradiction of water resources regulation in China will definitely not be solved.
In short, we can also say that even though China no longer needs to use hydropower to provide energy, in order to regulate water resources, we must increase the hydropower development in China to over 80%. Otherwise, the contradiction of water resources regulation will not be solved well, and our goal of building a well-off society will be difficult to achieve. What's more, at present, we are still facing enormous pressure to reduce emissions. It is urgent to realize the energy revolution and power transformation and finally fulfill the emission reduction commitment of the Paris Agreement.
According to the forecast conclusion of the report "Research on the Development Scenarios and Paths of High-proportion Renewable Energy in China in 2050" issued by the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Renewable Energy Center, by 2050, the installed capacity of wind power and solar power in China will reach 2.4 billion kilowatts and 2.7 billion kilowatts respectively.
It is estimated according to the possible operating hours per year (wind power is more than 2,200, solar energy 1.400). By then, China wind power can provide more than 5 trillion kWh of electricity every year, and solar energy can also provide nearly 4 trillion kWh. With more than 9 trillion electric energy and 2.6 trillion hydropower, it has exceeded the peak value of 1 1.2 trillion kwh in the peak period of electricity consumption in China.
More importantly, we will have more than 200 million kilowatts of biomass energy. In other words, even if the role of nuclear power is completely ignored, China can use 100% renewable energy to generate electricity in the future to meet all the power demand of China.
Not only that, hydropower can also shoulder the heavy responsibility of non-water renewable energy peak shaving.
As we all know, the adjustability of hydropower is definitely much better than that of thermal power and nuclear power. Therefore, if the emission reduction roadmap of the Energy Research Institute is feasible and there is no unresolved peak-shaving contradiction, then our plan of replacing thermal power with hydropower will certainly be no problem.
In addition, we should also note that although the technology of chemical energy storage is really difficult to meet the requirements of commercialization in technology and cost at present, why do domestic and foreign research institutions dare to assert that it is technically and economically feasible to realize global 100% power supply with renewable energy in 2050?
The author believes that one of the most important reasons is that the renewable energy family contains hydropower with special functions. Hydropower is the highest quality renewable energy, which can provide an important guarantee for a large number of renewable energy sources such as wind and light to enter the network. At present, all countries in the world that can achieve 100% power supply from renewable energy basically cannot do without effective regulation of hydropower.
As we all know, Norway has been relying on hydropower to ensure more than 99% of the country's electricity demand because of its abundant hydropower resources. At the beginning of this year, Portugal also completed a successful attempt to supply electricity entirely from renewable energy for more than a month. Portugal's hydropower ratio of up to 52% is an important support.
Even US President Trump, who announced his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, said that after discovering the important role of Norwegian hydropower, he might reconsider joining the Paris Agreement by developing the potential of American hydropower. This is actually the embodiment of the special and important role of hydropower in the future high-proportion renewable energy system.
Of course, we must also admit that the world's hydropower resources themselves (limited in total) really can't meet the human demand for energy and electricity. However, due to the scientific development of hydropower, it can provide guarantee for the access of a large number of renewable energy sources such as wind energy and light energy. In this way, water, wind and light complement each other to generate electricity, and the situation is very different.
In reality, there is usually a strong complementary relationship between the intermittence of wind and solar power generation and the seasonality of hydropower. Taking Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China as an example, through the complementary of water, wind and light, Liangshan Prefecture not only met its own electricity demand in 20 16 years, but also sent more than13 billion kwh of electricity to the eastern part of China (about 70% of the electricity consumption in Shanghai that year). If the construction of transmission channels can be guaranteed in the future, it is estimated that the power transmission from Liangshan will reach 200 billion kWh in 2020. In other words, through the complementary power generation of water, wind and light, the renewable energy generated by a state in Liangshan Prefecture can not only meet its own needs, but also meet all the electricity demand of a big city like Shanghai.
At present, many countries in Europe can achieve a high proportion of renewable energy because of the high degree of hydropower development in Europe. The fundamental reason why China still relies mainly on coal to generate electricity is precisely because the hydropower development level in China is not high enough, and it is difficult to give full play to the regulation performance of hydropower.
In addition, before the breakthrough of chemical energy storage technology, the important role of pumped storage power station in hydropower family can not be ignored. In order to peak load regulation of power grid, the installed capacity of pumped storage in Japan has already exceeded that of conventional hydropower. Assuming that there is still no major breakthrough in chemical energy storage technology by 2050, we will have to build more pumped storage. In fact, a large number of cascade hydropower stations in China (and some small hydropower stations scattered all over the country) can be transformed into hybrid pumped storage power stations with a little modification and pumps that can pump water.
In a word, it should be completely feasible for China to be completely powered by renewable energy by 2050 only from the analysis of power generation. Coupled with hydropower and some of its high-quality characteristics, it is technically and economically feasible to realize 100% power supply by renewable energy in 2050.
1. Reservoir migration
For a long time, the problem of migration has been the main constraint factor of hydropower development, but in fact, the difficulty of migration is not caused by hydropower development. In reality, all large reservoir hydropower stations that need a large number of immigrants are actually multifunctional hydropower stations with important water resources regulation and control functions. The main function of these power stations may not be to generate electricity, but to regulate water resources.
For example, the primary goal of the Three Gorges Project is flood control and water supply, not power generation. If it is only for power generation, the Three Gorges can build a series of runoff hydropower stations, so that almost the same power generation can be generated without immigration.
The Three Gorges Project does not have any water resources control functions such as flood control and water supply, and cannot solve the threat of the Yangtze River disaster to China, so it cannot be considered. However, millions of resettlement costs are all solved by the power generation benefits of a hydropower station, which is almost an unsolvable development problem.
Through the establishment of the Three Gorges Fund, China invested more than RMB 1000 billion, which solved the investment problem of the Three Gorges construction in China. In theory, it is equivalent to the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir by the state and the construction of the Three Gorges dam and power station by enterprises.
In retrospect, this is the most successful example of the state's participation in large-scale hydropower development. The on-grid electricity price of Three Gorges Hydropower Station is only 0.26 yuan/kWh, which is nearly 0. 1 yuan lower than the average on-grid electricity price of thermal power stations. The annual power generation of the Three Gorges is about 654.38+000 billion. Therefore, in addition to the profits, taxes and benefits paid by the Three Gorges to the state every year, this hidden electricity price compensation alone is close to 654.38+000 billion (equivalent to returning to the Three Gorges Fund). In other words, about ten years after power generation, the state's investment in the Three Gorges Reservoir is equivalent to full recovery.
However, how big is the benefit created by the Three Gorges Reservoir?
The huge benefits of flood control and water supply in the Three Gorges are enough to make us sit up and take notice to prevent catastrophic floods. In 20 12 years, the peak value of impounded flood in Three Gorges Reservoir has exceeded 1998. During the period of 65438-0998, the Yangtze River flood in China caused economic losses of about 200 billion yuan, and 1600 people died.
Because of the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, in the face of a bigger flood peak, we not only don't need millions of soldiers and civilians to guard against it, but also won't have any casualties. It can be said that the flood loss avoided by the peak shifting of the Three Gorges flood control in that year has exceeded several times the national investment in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Only the economic benefits of water conservancy projects are often public welfare. You can count them, but you can't actually collect them
The difficulty in resettling large hydropower stations and reservoirs is actually a contradiction in the development of public welfare. It is often very difficult for an enterprise to rely on the benefits of power generation to solve it. If the Three Gorges model is adopted, the problem will become very simple and easy.
Large-scale hydropower development projects in countries all over the world are basically state actions. For example, all large-scale hydropower projects in the United States must be invested and developed by institutions affiliated to the federal government, and commercial developers are never allowed to participate.
After the electricity market reform, many domestic high-quality projects can solve the investment of immigrants even if they rely on the electricity fee income of development enterprises. However, the construction of most large-scale reservoir power stations with water resources regulation function should be public welfare. Although the immigrant investment income of these projects can be said to be almost profitable. If it is handed over to an enterprise for commercial development, it may be difficult to operate.
For example, the construction of Longpan Hydropower Station, which is still controversial in China, requires more than 65,438+million immigrants. The storage capacity of water resources created by this important large-scale energy storage power station can reach almost 20 billion/year. Although its flood control function is not as good as that of the Three Gorges, its water supply capacity can even exceed that of the Three Gorges.
If an enterprise cannot rely on electricity to solve the resettlement costs, it will delay the development and construction of Longpan Hydropower Station. Then it is equivalent to increasing the flood pressure of 20 billion cubic meters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River every year in the next thousand years, while reducing the water supply of 20 billion in the dry season.
The same problem is also reflected in the second phase expansion of Longtan Hydropower Station. If the electricity fee can't bear the resettlement cost, Longtan Phase II development will stop. Then the Pearl River Basin in the south of China will increase tens of billions of flood pressure every year, and at the same time, the water supply will be reduced by tens of billions in dry season.
The tens of billions of water resources guarantee every year is the essence of our reservoir resettlement problem. We need to jump out of the inertia thinking of difficult immigrants in hydropower commercial development and avoid losing the good opportunity of water resources development in China.
2. Ecological protection
In addition to immigration, eco-environmental protection has always been considered as a huge obstacle to the development of hydropower.
There have been many articles devoted to the prejudice that hydropower destroys the ecology, which is considered to be the sequela left by the political struggle for hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union. 1996 At the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit, the status of large-scale hydropower was once denied due to excessive speculation on hydropower ecological problems at that time. However, at the summit in 2002, the General Assembly unanimously agreed to make amendments to restore the renewable energy status of large-scale hydropower. Why is this happening? Because hydropower, especially large hydropower, is the first main force to replace fossil energy in human society at present.
After careful analysis, it is not difficult to find that all the problems of hydropower destroying the ecology are almost local hype aimed at a specific species. Hydropower really solves the biggest ecological problem of human society-climate change caused by excessive use of fossil energy.
Therefore, as long as we stand at the height of sustainable development of human society, almost no one dares to deny that developing hydropower is the most important ecological construction at present. That year's United Nations summit immediately corrected the prejudice and misleading propaganda about hydropower, because it took climate change into account.
Influenced by the misunderstanding of hydropower by the international community, the former environmental protection departments and environmentalists in China were once worried about the ecological environment of hydropower development. However, the reorganized Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection has begun to take responsibility for preventing climate change.
Not long ago, the "China Coal-fired Power Retirement Report" jointly issued by the University of Maryland and the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission of China clearly pointed out that China must retire all traditional coal-fired power from 2050 to 2055 in order to realize the emission reduction commitment of 2 degrees Celsius in the Paris climate agreement (net zero emission in 2 100); If the emission reduction commitment of 1.5 degrees Celsius (net zero emission in the second half of this century) is to be realized, all traditional coal-fired power plants must be eliminated in 2040-2045.
Solving the carbon emission problem of thermal power is almost recognized by all countries in the world as the biggest difficulty in fulfilling the Paris climate agreement. At present, it is generally believed that there is only one way for thermal power, especially coal-fired power, to achieve the zero-carbon goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, and that is to retire.
In the next 20 years, all coal-fired power plants in China will be retired, and a large number of scenery power plants will be connected to the grid for power generation. How to support the normal operation of the power system without certain hydropower regulation guarantee?
We can be sure that in the near future, as long as China really fulfills the Paris Agreement, our Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection, which is in charge of this work, will fundamentally change its attitude towards hydropower, just like the United Nations Summit on Sustainable Development. Because the position and role of hydropower in the energy revolution is irreplaceable.
3. Development cost
With the deepening of hydropower development in China and its transfer to the west, the difficulty of resource development and the distance of transportation are getting bigger and bigger. Therefore, most hydropower projects to be developed generally have the problem of high on-grid electricity price during repayment period.
The high cost of hydropower development in western China should not be a real obstacle to development. At present, the cycle of enterprise investment accounting can not exceed 30 years at the longest, so almost all hydropower projects to be developed in the western mountains have the problem that the initial on-grid tariff is unacceptable. However, once the repayment period is over, the power generation cost of the hydropower station will become very low immediately.
At present, the so-called high cost obstacle of hydropower development in the west is actually just a rule problem of accounting method. Although this is an insurmountable problem for specific development enterprises, it should be said that it is easy and simple for a country to solve this contradiction from the policy.
From the whole life cycle, hydropower is almost the most economical energy. At present, not only the on-grid electricity price of hydropower in China is much lower than that of thermal power, but also the electricity price of almost all countries in the world with more hydropower is relatively low.
In addition, with the progress of society, many developed countries have entered the era of low interest rates or even negative interest rates. At present, our hydropower investment is calculated according to the loan interest rate as high as 6%. It can be seen that the high cost of hydropower development in the west is actually only formal and temporary. In essence, hydropower is one of the most economical sources of electricity in human society.
In the new round of western development, it will undoubtedly be a great mistake for us to lose the opportunity to provide the best and most economical electricity for the society just because the calculation of capital gains is not conducive to the short-term return of investors. In short, our socialist market economy should be more conducive to safeguarding the overall and long-term interests of society. Therefore, it is not difficult to solve such contradictions by establishing special funds or using fiscal and taxation means.
As mentioned above, the high-quality development of hydropower in China in the new period is not only feasible, but also the only way for the sustainable development of China's economy and society. However, due to the lack of public opinion on the transformation of energy and electricity in China, the issue of coal-fired power withdrawing from the historical stage has not yet been put on the agenda. Therefore, at present, China's serious power overcapacity leads to the problem of hydropower abandoning water, which still restricts the current development of hydropower.
This situation can only be temporary. Once the whole society realizes that the energy revolution marked by the withdrawal of coal-fired power and the great development of renewable energy is the basic premise for China to realize a well-off society and fulfill the commitments of the Paris Agreement, the situation of power transformation may change dramatically at any time. As the foundation and guarantee of renewable energy development in China, hydropower should always be prepared for this day. In short, the characteristics of hydropower determine that the high-quality development of hydropower in China must share the same fate with the progress and sustainable development of our society.