But generally speaking, its essence still focuses on the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry from China to China. After all, after decades of reform and opening up, China textile industry has reached the bottleneck of development, with serious homogenization of competition, low added value of products, squeezed profits and so on. Under the influence of internal and external factors, the textile industry is forced to transform itself.
Many textile enterprises have indeed closed down in recent years. Even the top 500 private textile enterprises in China have closed down. It is even reported that two textile enterprises among the top 500 enterprises in Shandong went bankrupt within one week. However, individual phenomena cannot represent the textile industry as a whole. After all, the production of an enterprise depends on its own factors, such as the lack of business philosophy, poor management, broken capital chain, blind expansion and so on.
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At present, the situation of textile industry is grim, and the problems of financing difficulty, recruitment difficulty, vicious competition, market disorder, heavy burden on enterprises and low efficiency are outstanding. The textile industry is facing a severe test, the market reshuffle is accelerating, and the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry with overcapacity is obviously painful.
1.
Standardization of environmental protection policy and acceleration of industry reshuffle
Since 20 17, the environmental protection policy has been in full swing. In 20 18, various environmental protection policies and regulations were implemented intensively. In 20 19, various environmental protection policies and regulations were implemented one after another. A new round of central environmental protection inspectors has been fully launched, and the normalization of environmental protection has become an inevitable trend.
20 19 65438+ 10 1 People's Republic of China (PRC) soil pollution prevention law, the first soil pollution prevention law in China, was officially implemented.
On the same day, the Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Shanxi Province, which is called "the strictest in history" and has made a number of "staggering" strict regulations on pollution prevention and control, also came into effect.
Environmental protection policies continue to exert their strength. Just after entering 20 19, all the printing and dyeing enterprises in Shantou Yanjiang 183 closed down and stopped production, which had a great impact on the printing and dyeing market, and the printing and dyeing costs and material prices rose accordingly. For example, the 300% price of disperse black ECT is urgently raised by 2000 yuan/ton, and other conventional dyes are also rising.
It should be pointed out that under the pressure of environmental protection policy, "dirty and messy" enterprises were obviously eliminated, which purified the market industry, contributed to the orderly development of the industry, promoted the sustainable development of the industry, and helped the textile industry to reinvent itself, but the pain was inevitable.
2.
The international crude oil market is turbulent and PTA rises.
The international environment is complicated, the situation in the Middle East is changing, the United States withdraws its troops, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and other issues, as well as the ambiguity of production reduction agreements between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Crude oil prices have continued to fall, but they have rebounded significantly in the near future. After 20 19 and 1 day, the international oil price ushered in seven consecutive rises, and the PTA market was also rising.
Although the price of crude oil can not completely determine the PTA market, there is a certain linkage between them.
3.
Sino-US trade friction truce, the future trend is unknown.
20 18, 18 In February, China and the United States announced that they would stop imposing new tariffs on each other, but it did not rule out the possibility that the United States would still impose new tariffs. After all, it is entirely possible for the Trump administration to repeat the "spirit of abandonment" that they have repeatedly shown.
Secondly, the supply of textile raw materials caused by Sino-US trade friction.
The United States is the world's largest cotton exporter and the country that imports the most cotton from China.
All along, China's cotton market is in a state of short supply, and a certain amount of cotton needs to be imported to meet the demand gap. 20 17,1-65438+February, China imported cotton1153,000 tons, of which 506,300 tons were imported from the United States, accounting for 44% of the total imports.
However, it should be pointed out that China's total cotton supply is 2012,454,000 tons, the total demand is 7115,000 tons, and the cotton imports from the United States only account for 7/kloc-0 of China's demand.
According to the data of USDA, in 2065.438+08, China signed a contract to import 6.5438+0.5 million bales of American cotton, which still shows the important position of the United States in China's cotton import market.
However, the shadow of the Sino-US trade war already exists. For some textile enterprises that rely heavily on imported cotton, it has become an inevitable trend to nip in the bud and choose multi-channel supply.
4.
The Rise and Industrial Transfer of Textile Industry in Southeast Asia
In recent years, the textile and clothing industries in Southeast Asia, especially in Vietnam and Bangladesh, are the most popular. Thanks to the continuous improvement of the industrial chain and the labor cost advantage that the salary level is only half that of China, Vietnamese textile export enterprises are favored by more and more European and American merchants, and some European and American market orders turn to Southeast Asia.
With domestic mature textile technology, the advantage of relatively low labor cost in Southeast Asia and preferential tariff treatment in Southeast Asia, for example, Bangladeshi textiles are sold to Japanese, Canadian and Australian markets, including China. In this way, under the pressure of overcapacity and domestic environmental protection policies, some textile enterprises have moved to Southeast Asia.
At the same time, however, there are many problems in Southeast Asian countries, such as low education level of local workers, poor discipline, low work efficiency, high cost of technical training for employees, excessive increase in wages and salaries, poor business environment for the government, and the level of industry openness to be improved. For textile enterprises, the transfer cost in Southeast Asia is also a big burden, and so is the security situation in Southeast Asia.
Some friends think that the textile market as a whole is depressed and the market is seriously shrinking. In addition to rising costs, it is also due to the sharp drop in orders and the inability to make money. It should be the peak season but it has become the off-season, and it has become the norm to stop work and have a holiday.
Many people say that the textile industry has entered the winter, but I think it is not the industry that has entered the winter, but the textile industry has accelerated the reshuffle and started a new round of elimination. We are facing a life-and-death exam.
Personally, I think the textile industry has never had winter, and it is absolutely evergreen. After all, people can't live without these four things. If even these four things are no longer popular, then I can't imagine what kind of decadent society it will be.
Moreover, according to the data obtained by the National Statistical Data Center, the overall development of the textile industry is stable and its pillar position in the national economy has never wavered. By February of 20 18 and June of 20 18, the operating income of China textile industry was 2,736.38 billion yuan, up 65,438+year-on-year. According to customs data, in June of 20 18 and 10, China's textile and garment exports reached 23.256 billion US dollars, up 7.26% year-on-year.
In fact, whether it is the environmental protection policy or the grim situation inside and outside the industry, there is only one breakthrough for us, that is, the textile production capacity exceeds the transformation and upgrading of the remaining industries.
This problem exists not only in the textile industry, but also in the domestic entity manufacturing industry.
From the macro data analysis: According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods above designated size increased by 2.0%, the consumption of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear decreased by 1. 1% year-on-year. This is the first negative growth in 10 years. If the terminal clothes can't be sold, it will cause overcapacity. Supply exceeds demand, the more inventory, the more depressed the market. Macroeconomic data is not high and out of reach, and its response to the textile industry is very accurate. In fact, we can see the development status and future trend of our textile industry through the data of manufacturing industry.
Judging from the international situation, the Sino-US trade war has indeed had a considerable impact. According to the Global Luxury Report, as early as 2009, 60% of international luxury brands had already made OEM production in China. Some produce finished products in China, while others complete most of the processes in China and ship them to brand countries to complete the final processes. Dongguan, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Qingdao and other places have many foundries such as pure cashmere. The reduction of sub-processing in the textile industry is also a reason.
From the policy point of view, the pressure of environmental protection is increasing, and production is stopped and eliminated one after another. Recently, the Emergency Management Department recently launched the second round of unannounced visits by national chemical enterprises. In the past few years, driven by environmental protection and supply-side reform, the textile industry has experienced an industrial transformation of "changing cages for birds". A large number of water-jet looms have been eliminated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. In Xiuzhou and Wujiang alone, more than 73,000 water-jet looms will be eliminated in 2065 and 438+07, and more than 30,000 looms will be eliminated every year in 2065, 438+08, 2065 and 438+09.
In 20 12, the textile industry also faced the dilemma of cold market and shrinking demand. But in the next few years, it gradually ushered in recovery and prosperity. This time, how long will the textile winter last?
Pay attention to Jade Bird and learn more about textile industry ~ Thank you.
This year's situation is quite special, the peak season is very short, yarn manufacturers' inventory increases, and buyers' purchasing enthusiasm is not great. I don't know what happened in June
The reasons for this result may be:
1, the market is special. The short peak season this year is the biggest reason. Pure cotton yarn and pure polyester yarn have been in a downward trend in the last month.
2. Negative expectations caused by Sino-US trade friction. Trump was ridiculed as "extremely unreliable." Since he came to power, he has launched an encirclement and suppression campaign against China. The situation in June is unknown, and long-term expectations have also aggravated the haze after the peak season.
But in any case, we must cheer up and meet the challenge bravely.
Image from: China Yarn Network "Highlights of the Week"
My major is textile, printing and dyeing, light chemical industry. I have done quality inspection in the printing and dyeing factory for three years, and now I am a QA documentary for woven shirts. Personally, I think the textile industry belongs to light industry, fiber manufacturing, fabric development, dyeing and finishing technology and clothing technology, which are very mature and have entered the sunset stage of industry development. The national level will not invest too much manpower and material resources in scientific research and development. On the other hand, the textile industry is a seriously polluted industry. Fiber weaving, fabric dyeing and finishing, printing and clothing washing all consume a lot of water resources. Dye wastewater contains too much heavy metals, which does not meet the national environmental protection requirements. Those who fail to meet the requirements will stop production and rectify. It also limits the row control. In recent years, labor costs have gradually increased, and many enterprises have experienced labor shortage. Industries began to shift to backward countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Africa. The future development trend is to ban small-scale production enterprises and promote large-scale textile production enterprises.
I am spinning. The development of this industry is not at sunset, but always at sunrise. As far as universality is concerned, its survival lies in raw materials, electricity, cotton, various fibers and transportation capacity. But some of them are vacant by state-owned enterprises. As a labor-intensive enterprise, the high wages and high taxes lead to the import of methamphetamine in the international market, while the downstream textile, cloth factory, garment factory and printing and dyeing factory are mostly private enterprises, and the environmental protection and various inputs far outweigh the profits, so it is difficult to survive at present. If we increase measures in electricity, fuel and export tax rebates, enterprises can still survive.
1. Everyone says that the textile business is not very good this year. In fact, this is caused by a worldwide situation. From 18, Trump waved a tariff stick, disrupting the world trade balance. This year's world trade war is an important reason for the decline in orders.
The market demand is average every year. Once there is a big change, it may be the market after overdraft. For the United States, in this case, they can use the amount of pre-purchase to digest their own inventory, while for us, the order will be reduced a lot.
Second, the recent rise of PTA has given birth to the replenishment frenzy of downstream bosses, but in fact the general trend of PTA has been declining since September 65438+2008.
The level of this decline is at least the level of the monthly line and the direction of the seasonal level.
Speaking of bargain hunting, the downstream market has made up a lot of goods recently, but in fact, a large part of it is just the need accumulated some time ago, which is still different from the increase of 18. Domestic demand is still there, so be cautious about long-term bullish. The higher the volatility, the greater the risk.
First of all, I think the entry requirements for the textile industry are relatively low. With a little money, we can open a small workshop. Look at the small textile workshops everywhere in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Small workshops can only operate 24 hours a day, compete with the market at the reserve price, basically have no product development ability, and can only blindly follow the trend. As a result, the products in the whole market are basically the same, resulting in oversupply. Large companies that have the ability to spend a lot of money to develop new varieties every year can only make wedding dresses for others, so their enthusiasm for development will cool down and a vicious circle will appear year after year. By the way, no matter how many orders there are, we China people can't work overtime 24 hours a day.
Whether the textile industry is in recession has not been accurately said.
Part of the reason is the time of China New Year. Last year's Chinese New Year was 65438+1October 27th, and this year's is February 15, with a difference of 19 days. At this time last year, the workers had returned to work normally after the New Year. Today, many people will not come back, but will still wait and see in the middle of the factory. If the workers don't come back, the production of the factory will be affected. There are many production links in the textile industry, and an abnormal link will be affected.
Fabric production also has a certain periodicity. 1 month is often the peak season for women's fabric production, and the listing time is often April and May. Time is tight. Last January's Spring Festival, the order was too late to be made, and there will be some surplus after the year. After the break, there are some turnover sheets that sell well. It's very lively. However, this year's Spring Festival is late, and most of them have been digested before the year. After the year, the normal production has been in March, which is close to the time of listing, so it is impossible to complete the delivery in time and the order quantity is small.
Try to answer, too. In fact, the world is slowly moving towards the Internet of Things. The rapid response of information and the improvement of production efficiency reduce the inventory of products, and the diversification of the market also delays decision-making. The order system of the industry is changing. If the technology is feasible and the cost is low enough, personalized customization will be the ultimate in future clothing. So the order volume is definitely getting less and less, which is the trend. The environmental problems caused by fast fashion have been recognized by many countries, and human beings need to find a balance between greedy consumption and environmental losses. Depression is not necessarily a bad thing. When the fittest is eliminated, accept it. If you are not good enough in the textile industry!
No, it's just that things are getting better and better