China people have an unparalleled love for houses, and can even be said to be "obsessed". The first reaction of being rich is that many people buy houses. If they have no money, they can borrow money to buy a house. With a house, even getting married will be much easier. At present, China's housing prices have been overheated, and some policies to prevent housing prices from overheating have been introduced in various places. However, there are policies above and countermeasures below. In order to buy a house, the "IQ" of our people has become higher, and various methods of fake divorce and fake proof have emerged one after another.
Yesterday, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that by last month, the monthly sales of commercial housing nationwide had reached 1 102503 billion yuan (1485.9 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 37.5%. 1 1 month has exceeded 10 trillion yuan. What is the concept of this number? Take Korea, a country we are familiar with, as an example. Last year, South Korea's GDP was $65,438+0,377.87 billion. We sold more houses than South Korea's annual GDP, not counting this month's sales. It can be seen how keen we ordinary people are on buying a house. This is definitely true love.
Our infatuation with the house can be traced back to a long time ago. As can be seen from the word "home" in Oracle Bone Inscriptions, "mián" is related to the living room, so the home has a house, and some domestic animals such as pigs are raised in the house. In ancient times, the house was a symbol of your identity and status. Different classes have different heights, colors and sizes of houses.
Since ancient times, you can build a house with money. Until now, the house still occupies an important position, and it can even be said that it is already a necessity. In blind date and marriage, the importance of the house is unparalleled.
In addition to the above points, some people use their houses for investment. If their house appreciates, they will earn much more than they work hard every day, even equal to all your previous efforts. Many companies have been busy for a whole year and haven't made much money selling a house.
According to statistics, among 70 key cities in China last month, the price of second-hand houses rose in 49 cities, and only 2 1 city fell. Although the housing prices in the first two cities have risen sharply since last year, and some control policies have been introduced in various places, some experts said that after 15 months, that is, after the spring and summer of 20 18, China's real estate inventory will be almost "digested". Moreover, the restriction of land supply, coupled with the advancement of urbanization, may lead to a sharp rise in housing prices, and even the first-tier cities with big bubbles still have room to double.
It can be said that except for wages, everything that should or should not go up has gone up, so wash and sleep in such a "crazy" house price.
20 18 GDP algorithm reform of house price forecast
In the past, property buyers speculated that the important reason why house prices would not fall was that the government did not allow house prices to fall, because China's economic development needs, especially the annual GDP growth rate, and real estate is the pillar of GDP. Once house prices fall, the whole real estate industry will fall into chaos.
On July 5, the National Bureau of Statistics issued an announcement on reforming the accounting method of R&D expenditure and revising GDP accounting data.
After the reform, the accounting method of GDP will be changed from production accounting method to expenditure accounting method. Under the expenditure accounting method, some industries that have not been included in the statistics in the past, but have a growing proportion in economic production, will be included in the statistics. The newly incorporated industries will bring a large amount of GDP, which is likely to become one of the most important pillars of GDP in the future. Therefore, the thighs are thick, why do local governments still hold old arms and legs?
National monetary and credit policies
China's housing prices basically keep changing in the same direction as the amount of money circulating in the market: the more money, the higher the housing prices; With less money, house prices have fallen. Once the government controls money and credit, house prices will be affected. Some experts combed the data of China from 1990 to 20 12, and came to the conclusion that the correlation between house price increase and M2 growth rate was as high as 7 1%. The biggest driving force for rising house prices is not demand, but money.
The most important means to tighten the currency is to raise interest rates. At present, the benchmark interest rate of bank loans over five years is only 4.9%, reaching the lowest point in nearly 30 years. 2002 was a historical low, and the benchmark interest rate for loans over five years was 5.76%. In order to make the economy develop healthily, the central bank now has enough room to raise interest rates.
After raising interest rates, it is more difficult to buy a house without a house. Interest rates increase, income does not increase, repayment ability decreases, and it is naturally more difficult to buy a house with a loan. Multi-suite loan repayment is more difficult. They will sell the surplus houses. In this way, in the case of huge real estate inventory, plus these stock houses, the supply will greatly exceed the demand.
House/property tax
After the real estate registration is completed, if the property tax is rolled out all over the country, the psychology of buyers will change. First of all, the "fence-sitter" who has no room and is hesitant to buy a house will consider the impact of property tax on himself after buying a house; Secondly, the loan to buy a suite, the monthly supply pressure is not small, and the property tax is high, which may sell at a high point; Thirdly, investors who own multiple properties will consider selling some houses.
If the property tax expenditure really exceeds the income from rising house prices, then the investment concept of buying a house will change. From the original point of view of "how good the house is", it has become "less, better and better" Many properties are not as good as a boutique. Finally, individuals will be influenced by groups and fear the risk of housing prices. When the pilot is in one city, buyers in other cities are just bystanders. Similar to the information dissemination of social networks, when the property tax is implemented nationwide and the house prices in one city fall, this market will be contagious, and the house prices in other cities will not hold up.
Just need the population to buy a house.
We found that in the past four years, 20 13, when the real estate market was the hottest and house prices rose rapidly, the growth rate of families in need was also the largest. In 20 17 years, the growth rate of just-needed families will be close to zero. Starting from 20 18, the number of people who just need it will decrease every year, which indicates that the potential population of buying a house will decline, and the growth rate of house prices in the country will inevitably decline.
It is inevitable that the population just needs to decrease. Investors with a keen sense of smell see fewer and fewer people buying houses, less and less every year. Investors will hang the house at the high price point of the intermediary platform and seize the opportunity to sell it. Buy fewer houses and sell more houses. In a short period of time, the "source/room ratio" of real estate agents will be greatly reduced, the right to speak of buyers will be enhanced, and it will be difficult to lower house prices.
Is it better to buy a house or rent a house
In fact, some people have done special data analysis for this kind of brain burning problem. Let's look at the difference between buying a house and renting a house in ten years. First-line housing prices make people tremble. Based on the relatively stable housing prices in second-and third-tier cities, we assume that the total price is 500,000 yuan (the monthly rent is 1.250 yuan according to the general domestic housing yield of 3%).
Buy this house with a down payment of 200,000 yuan and a provident fund loan of 300,000 yuan. Calculated by 20 years, the monthly payment is 1.963 yuan. /kloc-after 0/0 years, choose to pay off the loan with a lump sum of 200,000 yuan, and the house will be yours. Total monthly payment in October1963 *12 *10 ≈ 236,000!
If you rent this house, the monthly rent of 500,000 houses is 1.250 yuan, calculated according to the general 3% yield of domestic houses. Due to the soaring and unstable CPI in recent years, we temporarily calculate the annual rent increase by 6%, assuming that the rent for 10 is: 1 year: 15000 yuan; Rent for the second year: 15900 yuan; Rent for the third year: 16854 yuan ... 10 year: 25342 yuan. Then the total rent for 10 is about 200,000!
We assume that the deposit with a down payment of 200,000 yuan is calculated at an annual rate of return of 5% (the deposit interest rate is usually lower than CPI), and 20 *1.05 *10 ≈ 326,000 yuan. The province will deposit 1.963 million in the bank next month, with an annual rate of return of 5%, plus interest, which is about 3 1 10,000. Then, the one-time loan repayment saved is nearly 200,000!
Of course, these are all routine forms, which we call routines, but we should know that changes will be 10 thousand times faster than planned. In the case of unchanged operation, someone added three environmental assumptions.
Environmental Hypothesis 1: In the future 10, the rate of house appreciation will be consistent with CPI. After 10, the market value of the house will be 50 *1.06/kloc-0 ≈ 895,000 (very ideal) based on 6% per year. Then the wealth of people who buy a house is 895 thousand.
The renter's wealth is 326,000 down payment+365,438+0,000 monthly payment+200,000 one-time repayment-200,000 rent = 630,000!
Environmental assumption 2: In the next 10 year, the house value will increase 6 times, and the rental market value will be 3 million. The wealth of buyers is more than 4.5 times that of renters.
Environmental hypothesis 3: In the next 10 year, if the increase of the house is less than (63/50)* 100%=26%, the renter will win with an average annual increase of 2.5%, or decrease.
In view of these three broad assumptions, I asked my friend to make his own choice, and he was silent again. In fact, the reason is very simple and clear. As far as wealth is concerned, as long as the house rises with CPI, it is worth buying. But in reality, because the CPI of the National Bureau of Statistics is much lower than the actual inflation rate, house prices often outperform CPI and bank deposits. 10 years, house prices in large, medium and small cities across the country have increased by more than 10 times. So, what about the next 10 year?
Even if house prices continue to fall in the next 10 year, you will still live in it. The so-called green hills are not afraid of burning without firewood. In other words, if you just need to buy a house, you must live in it for 10 years, 20 years ... or even longer, so what does the rise and fall of the house mean to you?
Actually, renting or buying a house? This cannot be simply measured by the difference between rent and monthly payment. In the cost of buying and renting a house, buyers also need to consider the opportunity cost.
In addition, from the perspective of lifestyle, buying a house and renting a house are actually two completely different lifestyles.
People who buy a house want to live a stable life and feel at home. Tenants want a better quality of life, for example, if their work unit or place changes, they can move to a place close to their work soon.
In addition, people who buy a house need to bear higher economic pressure in the early stage, and people who rent a house will live a more chic life.
For young people with stable jobs, rising incomes and no other sources of income, they can consider buying a house. Because this is equivalent to a fixed monthly wealth accumulation, and China's economy is expected to continue to maintain a high growth in the future, and the urbanization process will continue, and this wealth has certain room for preservation and appreciation. For those who have better use of funds, such as starting a business or investing in a good enterprise, it is better to invest now instead of buying a house.