First, if we want to infer that there is no Tianjing incident, we must first understand the influence of Tianjing incident on the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom. After the Taiping Army invaded Nanjing and made its capital, it entered a period of rapid development. The Taiping Heavenly Kingdom expanded everywhere, reaching the Jiangsu and Zhejiang tax centers in the Qing Dynasty to the east, and expanding its territory to the west, occupying a large area of Central China. The northern expeditionary army approaching Tianjin threatened the capital of the Qing Dynasty.
It can be said that during this period, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was strong and had a strong development momentum. Western powers such as Britain and France also began to try to get in touch with the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom in an attempt to gain more benefits from it, and used the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement as a bargaining chip to persecute the Qing Dynasty.
However, a series of military victories of the Taiping Army intensified the internal struggle of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, and eventually the Tianjing incident with serious internal friction broke out.
In the Tianjing incident, firstly, the most powerful Dongwangyang Group was exterminated, and then the most powerful Beiwangwei Changhui Group was killed again. After two counter-revolutionaries, many veterans and court officials of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom were killed, and then Shi Dakai, the King of Wings, led his own army to flee.
At this point, the four kings, four kings, four kings and four kings originally established by the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom have all been "lost". Great changes in the leadership of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom directly led to the decline of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, and Zeng Guofan and other local forces should also take the opportunity to gain a firm foothold. After that, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom could no longer be as devastated as it was then, and the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom finally perished.
It can be seen that the Tianjing incident is one of the important reasons for the demise of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom.
Second, the historical limitations of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement. The Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement was a peasant uprising. Although the Qing dynasty was corrupt and faced with internal troubles and foreign invasion, it was not completely vulnerable at this time.
On the one hand, although the Qing dynasty opened some coastal markets after the First Opium War, the traditional small-scale peasant economy was not greatly affected, the feudal economic foundation was still very solid, and the main social contradiction was still the contradiction between the peasant class and the landlord class.
On the other hand, the rule of Confucianism, which lasted for more than two thousand years, was deeply rooted. The anti-Confucianism actions of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement directly offended the broad masses of intellectual elites and pushed them to their own opposites. The "complete equalitarianism" advocated by the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom didn't work at that time, and it finally went away.
The historical limitations of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement and the limitations of the peasant class are one of the main reasons for its failure. In this environment, even if there was no Tianjing Incident and Yang remained in power, it would not necessarily overthrow the Qing Dynasty.
Thirdly, in the absence of Tianjing incident, the development trend of Taiping Heavenly Kingdom under Yang's continued power is inferred. The Tianjing incident is a hidden danger buried from the time of worshipping God. Hong Xiuquan is like the chairman of the company, while Yang is like the general manager and director. The contradiction between them is also the contradiction between secular power and religious theocracy.
If there were no Tianjing incident, this contradiction would not cause serious internal friction in the future. If Yang remained in power, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement would exist longer than in history.
Because Yang's practical ability is stronger than Hong Xiuquan's, Hong Xiuquan is more like the nominal head of state of western countries, such as the future king of England; On the other hand, Yang is more like the actual ruler and prime minister of Britain.
Without the serious internal friction of Tianjing Incident and Yang's ability being stronger than Hong Xiuquan's, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom Movement would last longer.