The anchor point of the pig cycle is the number of sows that can breed, and 40 million pigs are a balance point, which increases the price of pork and reduces the price of pork. The circular trajectory of the general pig cycle is: high meat price-a large increase in the number of fertile sows-an increase in the supply of pigs-a decrease in meat prices.
The pig cycle is caused by the instability of pig yield and output. Pig production is not synchronized with industrialization and urbanization. On the one hand, land, labor and capital flow rapidly to industries and cities, and the development speed of pigs slows down; On the other hand, the income of residents has increased rapidly, the rural population has flooded into cities, and the demand for pork has risen sharply. In particular, due to the low comparative benefit, the disease is difficult to control and the market risk is great, the pig production fluctuates greatly.
Why is there a pig cycle?
The so-called pig cycle is actually the ups and downs and reincarnation brought about by the contradiction between supply and demand. When the amount of breeding is large and the supply far exceeds the consumption, the price of pigs will plummet, resulting in a loss of pigs, and pig farms will begin to go to production capacity; When the production capacity is excessively reduced, the demand exceeds the supply, and the pig price skyrockets, it enters a new round of capacity expansion. In this way, there are four pig cycles in China. This time is the rising stage of the pig cycle, and because of the serious shortage, the pig price can't see the top for the time being.
Why does the relationship between supply and demand fluctuate greatly, leading to round after round of pig cycle?
1, the ability of biosafety prevention and control is seriously low.
We found that almost all pig cycles are related to the epidemic situation. Large ones such as non-plague and blue ear disease (high fever) and small ones such as PED (epidemic diarrhea). These epidemics have brought about a lot of productivity decline, which in turn led to insufficient supply and rising pig prices. Then the epidemic eased and the production capacity quickly recovered, leading to a new round of surplus.
2. Lack of planning
In a country that needs 700 million pigs and 50 million tons of pork every year, it is hard to imagine the great risks brought by lack of planning. In addition to the pig cycle caused by major epidemics, lack of planning is another major reason for the pig cycle.