However, in these few days, wheat distributed the "second spring" and rose collectively again. Even rice, which has been depressed for half a year, has shown signs of rising recently. What's going on here?
0 1, wheat goes higher.
11.43-1.46 yuan/kg At the beginning of the year, the wheat market generally rose to the highest price in nearly 10 years, with Jinsha River in Shaanxi rising above the high price of 1.49 yuan.
However, from the middle of the year, traders sold wheat for fear of wheat collapse, which led to a drop in wheat prices, and flour enterprises took the opportunity to reduce prices, which led to a recent market decline.
It stands to reason that there is no shortage of wheat in the market, and official regulation has been going on, but recently the price of wheat has started to rise, with an increase of 0.4-2.5 points. For example, Wudeli in South Jinsha River, Shahe River and Suiping rebounded 1 point, and the price was 1.43 yuan/kg; Xinxiang, Daming, Handan and Baixiang Wudeli rebounded 1.5 points, and the price was 1.43- 1.44 yuan/kg; Red-crowned crane powder and developed Zaozhuang rebounded 1.5-2 points, and the price was 1.4 yuan/kg; Sifeng flour industry rebounded by 2.5 points at the price of 1.43 yuan/kg; Xianyang Wudeli rebounded 1 point, price 1.48 yuan/kg.
As for why the price of wheat is higher, it is because there is not much surplus grain in the market, and big traders are reluctant to sell it. Every winter is the peak season for flour sales, and the processing rate of enterprises is higher, which increases the demand for wheat. Recently, the price of flour has been rising. For example, the flour industry of COFCO has recently soared by 400 yuan/ton, and the profits of flour enterprises have gone up, making wheat once again usher in the "second spring" in the near future.
Whether it can rise to the high price of1early October 165438+ depends on when the official policy auction will be held. The price of wheat will not fall before the auction comes. At present, the national average price is 1.4 15 yuan/kg, which is expected to return to the high price of1.
02, rice is going up?
Since then, the price of rice has been falling all the way, and the price of new rice is still low after listing. Even in the "grain preparation tide" of1early October 165438+, a lot of rice that is still over-capacity was emptied, but the rice price still failed to rise much, unlike the wheat price, which broke through a new high.
However, the rice market has gone up recently, and the price has generally increased by 50-80 yuan/ton. For example, rice in Feidong county 1.3 yuan, rice in Huanggang county 1.3 yuan, rice in Guanyun county 1.33 yuan/kg, rice in Yongxin county 1.27 yuan/kg. Compared with1165438+1.24-1.28 yuan at the beginning of October, the market has increased significantly recently.
Of course, the rice market is rising, and because of the recent surge in rice consumption demand, dealers have also begun to purchase, which has made the rice enterprises have a remarkable effect of reducing production capacity, and they have also begun to accelerate the acquisition of rice, thus making their market higher.
This year's rice price continues to be low. At present, six provinces have released the consignment price, which shows that the previous rice has fallen below the minimum consignment price. So, can rice continue to rise next?
At present, the old rice of enterprises has not been fully digested. In addition, many families have bought several bags of rice in the early stage, and their consumption has entered a saturated state. Therefore, the rice market has begun to return to calm, and prices in some areas have been lowered. It is expected that next, rice will continue to return to its usual price.
In fact, except for my country, the market of new rice in Asia is not very good recently. Thailand, Vietnam, India and other countries fell by 5- 10 USD/ton. Therefore, it still does not support the rise of rice in the short term.
03. How is the corn market?
From the middle of 10 to 10, the corn market ushered in a sharp rise, especially in North China, above 1.4 yuan, above 1.45 yuan in Shandong, and above 1.5 yuan in some enterprises.
However, from mid-June 165438+ 10, the decline of corn began to accelerate. Judging from today's market, Inner Mongolia Fufeng fell by 2 points, and the price was 1.325 yuan/kg; Changle Shengtai fell 2 points, the price 1.375 yuan/kg; Shouguang Golden Corn and Chen Ming fell 1.3 yuan, and the mainstream 1.387 yuan/kg; Xilai starch fell 1 point, and the price was 1.46 yuan/kg.
As for why the market fell, it is actually related to the centralized listing of corn in Northeast China. Farmers also began to sell corn with poor quality and high water content, which made it easier for the market to get more goods and factories to lower prices.
For traders, although the previous market was high, everyone was afraid to buy it easily. After all, the price of old corn has fallen below the cost price this year, and many people have lost money. For feed enterprises, corn is higher, and everyone has reduced their purchases.
Due to various unfavorable factors, the corn market has accelerated its decline. In the early stage, enterprises bought enough corn to support 1 month demand, and they were cautious in purchasing in the near future.
However, there is good news now, that is, China Grain Reserve began to buy new corn, but it has high requirements for China Grain Reserve and poor market procurement. For example, Fujian plans to buy 5000 tons of corn, with a starting price of 3020 yuan/ton. Although the price is high, the corn is required to be second-class or above, and the moisture content is 15%. Traders were in a high mood to hoard grain, and all the results were unsuccessful.
Of course, there will be a new round of cold wave soon. It is expected that the corn in North China and Northeast China will stop falling in the near future, but it is unrealistic to usher in a high tide. At least until the end of 65438+February, everyone should be cautious.