1. Black Swan event: The English word "black swan" events refers to a small probability event that is very difficult to predict, but when it happens suddenly, it will cause a chain reaction and bring huge negative effects. It exists in natural, economic, political and other fields. Although it is an accidental event, if it is not handled well, it will lead to systemic risks and serious consequences.

Origin: Before the discovery of black swans in Australia, Europeans before17th century thought that swans were all white. But with the appearance of the first black swan, this unshakable concept collapsed. The existence of the black swan symbolizes an unpredictable and rare event, which is unexpected, but it has changed everything. People always believe in experience too much, but they don't know that the appearance of a black swan is enough to subvert everything. However, whether in the expectation of the stock market, the decision-making of the government or the simple choices of ordinary people, the black swan is unpredictable. 9. The11incident, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the snowstorm in China all confirmed this point.

2. Logical analysis: The logic of "black swan" is that what you don't know is more meaningful than what you know. In the development of human society, what has a great impact on our history and society is usually not what we know or what we can foresee. The stock market will suddenly collapse, the US real estate bubble will lead to the subprime mortgage crisis that no one expected, and a sudden heavy snow will paralyze most parts of China and bring hundreds of billions of losses ... We are actually surrounded by "black swans" every day. Even if you stay indoors, it is not difficult to understand the impact of the black swan incident. Look at your own living environment and count the major events, technological changes and inventions that have taken place around you since you were born. How many people do you think there are? Look at your own life, your career choice, your meeting with your lover, your friend's betrayal, whether you got rich or fell, whether your stock market went up or down … How many of these things happened as planned?

3. Taleb's two words about the great influence of the "black swan incident": life is only the cumulative result of a few major events. "History and society don't crawl, they jump, they jump from one fault to another, and there is only a little swing between them. We (and historians) like to believe that we can predict small gradual evolution. Looking back, a few unpredictable but influential black swan events have determined the fate of our lives and even the fate of a country. "

4.？ Grey rhinoceros incident: "Grey rhinoceros" is a concept complementary to "black swan", and "Grey rhinoceros incident" is a common risk. Specifically, it refers to an obvious, high probability, repeatedly ignored event that may eventually lead to a major crisis. It will appear in all fields of society, and it is often ignored before fermentation, so that the best opportunity to deal with or control risks is missed, which may eventually lead to extremely serious consequences.

Event background: Where did the word "grey rhinoceros" come from? Michelle, winner of Guggenheim Scholar Award? Walker's book "Grey Rhino: How to Deal with the High Probability Crisis" made the "Grey Rhino" known to the world. Walker mentioned in the book that to deal with the risk of "grey rhinoceros", don't waste the crisis that has happened, and really learn from the disaster.

5.？ Preventive strategy: After every black swan incident, there is a huge grey rhinoceros crisis. Michelle? In the book "Grey Rhino", Walker gives a strategy to deal with the risk of grey rhinoceros:

First of all, we should acknowledge the existence of the crisis.

Second, define the risk nature of grey rhinoceros.

Third, don't stand still, that is, don't stand still in front of the impact.

Fourth, don't waste the crisis that has happened, but really learn from the disaster. ?

Fifth, we should stand downwind, keep our eyes on the distance, accurately predict the seemingly distant risks in the distance, get rid of hesitation, and optimize the decision-making and action process.

Sixth, the person who discovers the risk of gray rhinoceros can be the person who controls the risk of gray rhinoceros.

6.？ From the American subprime mortgage crisis to the European debt crisis, it can be said that there is a huge "grey rhinoceros" risk behind every crisis. In the subprime mortgage crisis, the real estate bubble and excessive credit expansion in the United States have already appeared; In the European debt crisis, the problems of high debts and excessive fiscal deficits in European countries are far from overnight. In these crises, the risk of "grey rhinoceros" was ignored and could not be properly handled, which eventually led to a major crisis.

From a global perspective, global issues such as globalization and climate change refugees are facing huge "grey rhinoceros" risks. To cope with these risks, countries can only help each other in the same boat and move forward hand in hand.