In recent years, the rapid growth of house prices has overdrawn the market consumption power, and a large number of speculative houses have accumulated certain market risks, which objectively requires a rational correction of house prices and a re-accumulation of consumption power. At the same time, under the change of macroeconomic background, people's bullish psychological expectations have also changed, the wait-and-see atmosphere has been strengthened day by day, and the time for holding money for purchase has begun to extend.
However, the 90/70 policy has caused a large supply of small apartments and the introduction of affordable housing, which has caused some problems in the transformation of small apartments and low-end houses in Hangzhou. In addition, developers are eager to withdraw funds in the big environment. These two inevitable factors have formed the fuse for the price reduction of Hangzhou property market. The biggest role of Vanke's price reduction storm is to promote the polarization between the quality and price of real estate in Hangzhou, and the products tend to be cost-effective and the pricing tends to be rational.
Price rationality returns, and developers pursue reasonable profits.
Vanke puts the price first. The average profit rate of Hangzhou real estate developers is around 30-40%, and some projects with poor overall supporting quality can reach at least 25%. Through this adjustment, the developer's profit should be between 10-30%, and the profit level depends on who will operate it.
Looking at other industries, the average net profit of the hotel industry is 8- 10%, which is already a very good management level. According to the statistics of orient securities, the net profit of food and beverage is 6.2%, the clothing and textile industry is 6%, the electrical appliance industry is 5.7%, and the automobile industry is 4%. The average profit rate of manufacturing industry is only 5%. As long as the RMB appreciates by 5%, the profits of China's export-related enterprises will be eaten up, and the profits of import-related enterprises will be eaten up if the RMB depreciates by 5%. As long as the RMB exchange rate is pushed up, a large number of enterprises will not survive.
In contrast, the income of real estate is undoubtedly super high profit, and the decline of real estate price is directly proportional to the rationality of profit rate.
In fact, whether it is subtraction (discount, promotion, price reduction) or addition (hardcover, garage, quality upgrade, repair), developers have to earn less and spend more. This process is to improve the cost performance of real estate and reduce the original profit rate. I think it may bottom out when the profit rate drops to around 12- 15%.
The total price of scarce projects is flat, and high-quality real estate wins the market.
The above is the general trend of price reduction adjustment of mainstream real estate, but non-main real estate, such as projects with unique scarce resources, high-end comprehensive facilities, commercial potential and unique selling points, will be sought after by the market and the prices will remain stable. Even some properties will play a stunt of raising prices and going high, giving consumers confidence and giving low discounts to satisfy consumers' psychology.
Consumers pay more attention to high-quality real estate and brand developers.
Low-and medium-priced real estate has attracted attention.
The majority of buyers are affected by the income level, and the house price directly determines the purchasing power of buyers.
Uid 126 16 1 post 17 essence 0 points 156 gold coin 78 reading rights 10 online time 16 hours registration time 2009- 9-2/kloc-.
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65438+ 10 month, more than 30 new buildings were built in Hangzhou.
10 in the coming month, the Hangzhou property market will usher in the opening peak, with new and old properties appearing from the city center to the suburbs. According to the incomplete statistics of this newspaper, there will be 34 properties listed in Hangzhou downtown 10, including 2 1 in the main city, and it is estimated that 630,000 square meters will be listed based on the 30,000 square meters of each property.
Many properties originally scheduled to open in September have been postponed, becoming the main force of 10 opening. /kloc-many of the new markets in October were opened for the first time, and there were also many classic secondary markets. From the plate point of view, there are many new sites in Binjiang District, including Chuanhai? Window of vision, white, Jiangnan, Huarong? Beautiful Butterfly Garden and Xia Yun? Lianyuan and other new addresses. Most of them are small and medium-sized units, of which Chuanhai? The Window of Vision and Xuan Yue Park are both small apartments of 40-65 square meters. Huarong, located in the Changhe Plate south of the Fourth Qianjiang Bridge? There are more than 360 suites in 3 buildings (4, 5 and 6), of which 4 and 6 buildings are river-view rooms with 83- 138 square meters.
In the new disc that debuted, the riverside in the cultural and educational district? Guangyu of Golden Lanting and Zijin Port Plate? Xicheng Shu Mei, the golden corner of Xiasha? In the Guanlan era, the development of idle forests? Huang Ting on the stream and the golden land of Sandun? Kerry of Zicheng and Huafeng Plate? Huafengju and other projects are highly concerned. Among them, Binjiang? Golden Lanting is located at the intersection of Wen Yi Road and Gucui Road, surrounded by six pure slab high-rise buildings. Households are divided into 130- 180 square meters and 90 square meters. Guangyu, located at the junction of Fengtan Road and Shenhua Road? Xicheng Shu Mei will launch the first batch of small units below 90 square meters, mainly two-bedroom small units of 84 and 88 square meters, and there are more than 300 sets of large units of 128- 139 square meters.
What did He Kun leave on the old site of the newly-opened building? Hejiayuan and Dahua in Xixi Plate? Xixi style, Kunlun Oak Garden on Shenhua Road, Ithaca in Xiasha and Jos? Liancheng International and Dongfanghong Street near the East Station have better houses for sale. Among them is Dahua? There will be five periods of Xixi-style "Yuegong". These houses are called city yacht villas, and there are 266 houses. There are dense water networks in the Moon Palace Group, which are connected with Xixi flowing water.
Several reasons why house prices will continue to fall sharply.
1. The initiator of the global financial crisis is the real estate problem in the United States, which has caused countries to inject trillions of dollars into the financial system to save it, and the price paid is huge! !
The final result of this crisis will be that global real estate prices will continue to fall, and real estate will be abandoned by investors from the portfolio, and will be regarded as a product with mismatched returns and risks for a long time to come, and will eventually fade out of the mainstream investment market.
If house prices continue to rise, similar financial risks will inevitably erupt in the future. However, if such a financial risk occurs in China, it may not be able to bear it like the United States and Europe. The government clearly saw the problem, so it braked the real estate market urgently!
The government hopes that house prices will fall, but the market's response is not only that house prices will fall, but also that there is no transaction volume. This is a very terrible classic form before the crash. I believe that people who have had many years of experience in stock trading know what this means-first, it falls indefinitely, and then it continues to fall rapidly.
Starting from 2009, under the joint action of the government and the market, house prices will accelerate to fall.
2. House prices will have investment value only in the process of sustained and rapid rise. Even if it does not fall, it shows a sideways trend and has no investment value. This is the basic knowledge of a qualified investor, so investors will avoid risks and sell. In recent two years, the real estate market in China has shown typical characteristics of speculative market. Now that house prices are even falling sideways, there is no speculative value of investment, and the liquidity of real estate is very poor. The pessimistic forecast of house prices, coupled with greater liquidity risk, will make investors sell more and more.
3. The housing market in China has experienced a complete cycle of 10 years since it began to be marketized and monetized in 198. People over the age of 30 basically have their own houses, and a considerable number of social elites and vested interests also have more than two houses. These people are the main holders of social wealth, and their demand for housing has experienced 65433. The most urgent demand for housing is people around 30 years old, with mature minds and rich social experience, so they are basically bears, and the number is not too much. The larger group is people under the age of 30. Young people have weak purchasing power and can wait at least two years. Guided by the weak market and public opinion, they are basically aware of the general trend of falling house prices.
Therefore, the overall demand of the real estate market in the future is gradually declining.
China has passed the peak of population. The people who just needed to buy a house a few years ago were mainly from the 1970s. The main feature of this era is that every family basically has more than two brothers and sisters. The demand for houses in the future is mainly after 80 s and 90 s. Many urban families have 1 child, young people have less economic accumulation, and the demand for buying a house is greatly reduced.
The decline of just-needed population will greatly weaken purchasing power, which is a problem that must be faced squarely.
5. The listing of affordable housing in various places will also reduce the demand for a small number of commercial housing.
6. The state will introduce policies to stimulate the economy and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, some industries began to transform and upgrade, and some industries are now at a low ebb. Encouraged by the policy, it will gradually start to recover and gradually rise. Wenzhou real estate speculators, one of the main forces of real estate speculation, should start to consider returning to industry, which is what a discerning investor should think of at present.
A considerable part of real estate funds will flow to the fields where they once made a fortune and start another round of rise and creation of new industries.
7. The stock market is at a low level, some sectors and stocks begin to have investment opportunities, and the housing market funds begin to shift to the stock market.