Produced by Tiger Sniff Automobile Group

Author | Wang Xiaoyu

Edit | ponder

Toutu | vision china

On June 8th, the topic of "BYD supplying batteries to Tesla" once again topped the hot search list in Weibo.

Unlike previous rumors, this time it is Lian Yubo, executive vice president of BYD Group and president of Automotive Engineering Research Institute. In an interview with CGTN (China International Television), he revealed this information: "BYD respects Tesla and is also a good friend of Musk. (BYD) is also preparing to provide batteries for him (Tesla) immediately. "

Lian Yubo, Executive Vice President of BYD Group and President of Automotive Engineering Research Institute

The timing of the news release is quite ingenious. Because in the past two days, BYD's market value has been rising day by day, and now it has sat on the throne of "the third largest car company in the world", second only to Tesla and Toyota. As soon as the news came out, the investors of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. first panicked.

On June 8, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. once fell more than 7% in intraday trading, and its total market value also fell below one trillion yuan. However, in the end, the position was successfully closed, and the total market value returned to 1.07 trillion yuan. On that day, BYD's share price rose by 3.98%, and the latest share price was 32,745,438+0 yuan, with a market value of 95,365,438+37 million yuan. If the dust settles, it is only a matter of time before BYD's market value catches up with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd..

Get ready for cheap Tesla

It is not the first time that Tesla has acquired BYD battery, but this time it may be infinitely close to the "official announcement".

The news in August last year was that BYD will provide Tesla with blade batteries in the second quarter of 2022. The news at the beginning of this year is that the Tesla model equipped with BYD battery has entered the C-type test stage, and BYD has also received the battery order of Tesla 10GWh. Judging from the contents and time nodes of the two news releases, it has indeed reached the final stage.

Generally speaking, sample A is a battery test, sample B is a battery test, and sample C is a load test. And generally speaking, after stage B, both parties will have a supply agreement, and after stage C, how many batteries to buy will be finalized. The whole cycle is about one year, but considering BYD's "blade battery" has mass production experience, it should be a direct C-type test, and the cycle is shortened a lot.

Tesla in China is eager to find a new battery, largely because the battery is too expensive. In March this year, Tesla, known for its "cost pricing", took the lead in launching a wave of price increases around the world, especially in China, which raised prices twice in five days on March 10 and 15. In the middle of last year, when the Model Y standard endurance version equipped with the lithium iron phosphate battery of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. was released, the actual selling price after the purchase tax was reduced and subsidized was 276,000 yuan. After several price adjustments, its price has now risen to 3 1.69 million yuan, with an increase of more than 40,000 yuan in less than one year.

In fact, the demand of domestic Tesla is very simple: on the one hand, it is to find cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries, on the other hand, it is to force the main suppliers to lower prices. Then the partner who can pick and choose and complete these two needs at one time is BYD.

"According to the previous understanding, this wave of battery price increases, Foday's appeal is a lot of Buddhism, so the impression on Tesla is better, and catfish is also added, which also puts pressure on several current battery suppliers." Zhu Yulong, a senior automotive engineer, analyzed. Indeed, in this wave of price increases at the beginning of the year, most new energy vehicle companies frequently adjusted their prices by1-30,000 yuan, while BYD only increased its prices by1-7,000 yuan. Obviously, BYD has strong confidence in the cost control of power batteries.

What's more, with the current price of this kind of power battery, it is impossible to reduce the price of domestic Tesla to less than $25,000 (1.6 million yuan). I still remember that on Tesla Battery Day in 2020, Musk set the premise for "cheap Tesla" as follows: "Through Tesla's new batteries and battery manufacturing efforts, the battery cost will be reduced by more than 50%."

So for Tesla, whoever has a lower battery price, greater production capacity and stronger products will naturally have the possibility of purchasing. As for who the battery brand is, it may not be that important. It was Rainbow Sicong who said, "When I make friends, I never look at whether he has money, because they are not as rich as me."

BYD is willing to be a "wage earner"

For BYD, it is of great significance to be able to take over Tesla orders.

Prior to this, BYD's "Blade Battery" has not been installed in other brands of new energy vehicles. The only case of BYD's large-scale external supply of batteries is the "pure electric Mustang" model Mustang Mach-e produced by Changan Ford. But until now, this model has only purchased NCM8 1 1 ternary lithium battery from BYD, which is not the "blade battery" that BYD wants to sell most.

As a new energy vehicle company, BYD itself also needs to supply power batteries, so it is difficult for customers to buy with confidence. This is also the reason why Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. decided not to set foot in vehicle manufacturing. Although BYD "dismantled" BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. at the beginning of last year and turned it into Foday Battery Co., Ltd., a new energy core component supplier, the label of "Diga" is too heavy, and "Blade Battery" is still struggling to find new buyers.

In order to win the big customer Tesla, BYD must have made a lot of preparations these days.

First of all, from the "blade battery" product itself, it needs to match Tesla's body structure and fast charging system. Zhu Yulong, a senior automotive engineer, said: "Because of its fast charging ability, the blade battery does not meet the requirements of Tesla. According to Tesla's previous requirements for 60kWh lithium iron, the peak value of this fast charging power is about 130kW. Because the blade battery is too long, the heating of the charging rate 2C mainly depends on DCR (direct current impedance), and the heat dissipation comes from the direct cooling above, and the whole temperature may be uneven. " Judging from the current progress of cooperation, such technical problems have been solved. Zhu Yulong then told Tiger Sniff: "The formula can be adjusted".

In addition, BYD's "blade battery" module is long, while the lithium ferrous phosphate of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is square. How to arrange and assemble will directly affect the user experience. In addition, lithium ferrous phosphate has poor charge and discharge performance at low temperature, and how to effectively cooperate with the thermal management system is also a long-term problem that puzzles the industry. You know, fast battery life in winter is the most talked-about problem of the last batch of lithium ferrous phosphate Tesla owners. Whether "blade battery" can solve this old problem needs further verification.

Secondly, judging from the actions of the whole group, BYD seems to be avoiding direct competition with potential cooperative car companies by expanding the "battlefield".

At the end of May, Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's automobile brand and public relations division, revealed on social media that the progress of BYD's high-end brands was as follows: the brand and logo were released in the third quarter of this year, the first model (hard-core off-road vehicle) was released globally in the fourth quarter, and the first model was launched in the first half of 2023. The price range of high-end brands is expected to be 800- 1.5 million yuan.

You know, in the past, BYD's main battlefield was in the range of 65,438+00-300,000 yuan, which was also the most intense competition between domestic car companies and joint venture car companies and the largest market volume. Although there are two high-end models of BYD, Han and Tang, and the latest BYD Seal (265,438 yuan +0.28 million yuan-289,800 yuan), the brand tonality has improved, but the average bicycle price of BYD is still at the level of 65,438 yuan +0.565438 million yuan +0.8 million yuan.

Nowadays, BYD has entered a brand-new high-end market, which is essentially a pressure release from the original low-end market. You know, in 20021year, BYD's share in the new energy vehicle market reached 17. 1%, with an increase of nearly 8% during the year. But even so, the net profit still recorded a decline of nearly 30%. Instead of continuing to spend resources and energy on killing friends in the low-end market below 300,000 yuan, it is better to put more new technologies on the high-end and luxury cars that are "less crowded", and then reduce the mass production cost of new technologies through scale effect.

Finally, the advantage of high-end is to promote the whole BYD brand by going up one flight of stairs. After winning a place in the high-end market, in turn, it can greatly boost the external supply of power batteries, even the external supply of core components such as semiconductors and motors. Because for consumers, they will think that this technology is only available in cars with a price of 654.38+0 million yuan, and now there are cars with a price of 300,000 yuan, which is very cost-effective.

Since 2022, the domestic auto market has almost stagnated due to external influences, but BYD is accelerating in an all-round way at the business level. In the past two months, BYD has released four new/redesigned models, coupled with the acceleration of battery supply and new brand building. BYD this year can be described as "fast".

As Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, said at the 20021Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on June 8, the process of electrification is accelerating. At this time, it depends on who has more resources, good supply chain and great product advantages, who can win a bigger market. Now it's not the big fish eat small fish, but the fast fish eat the slow fish, and only in the fast process can we overtake.