What is the real economy and what is the virtual economy?
The real economy is well understood, which mainly refers to the concept of economic activities formed by sales and direct provision of services for this purpose. Mainly including agriculture, industry, transportation, commerce, construction, post and telecommunications and other industrial sectors. Simply put, food, clothing, housing and transportation, which are essential for our survival, all depend on the real economy.
There is a big debate about virtual economy, and there are various viewpoints in academic circles. Generally speaking, virtual economy is a concept divorced from the entity, that is, it does not collide with the entity, but is virtual, that is, it has the meanings of hypothesis, hypothesis, fabrication and hypocrisy, and regards it as the opposite of reality. Virtual capital and virtual economy in the sense of economics are derived from here, starting with virtual capital. Virtual economy is the economy of capital independence movement.
Then the virtual economy is an activity that relies on the virtual system to run and directly produce Qian Shengqian. Therefore, Ma Yun said that Taobao and Tmall Mall are entities, which makes sense, because they are involved in the circulation of goods. Therefore, the virtual economy discussed in this paper is not a virtual economy in a strict sense, but an economic model that is relatively divorced from the entity.
So what I mean by virtual economy is financial and securities industry, e-commerce industry and internet socialization.
I. Financial and securities industry
Mainly engaged in derivatives markets such as stocks, funds and futures, it is a typical virtual economy. For example, a company was a manufacturing company before listing, but after listing, stocks were traded, resulting in a part of the virtual economy, and sometimes this part of the virtual economy is out of touch with the real economy. For example, when the company earned 65438+ billion profits every year, its market value was 2 billion, but a few months later, it still maintained the level of earning 65438+ billion profits every year, but its stock soared and its market value rose to 10 billion. The extra 8 billion is generated by the virtual economy.
So this part of the virtual economy is not really divorced from the real economy. The number of people who speculate in stocks has risen to 654.38+000 billion, and some people will sell it. For the seller, suppose he bought 200,000 yuan before the rise and earned 800,000 yuan after the sale. He may use the 80 Wan Yun to buy a house, a car or travel. This part of the virtual economy is now transferred to the real economy in your way. But the fact that needs to be noted here is that when he cashed in 6.5438+0 million shares, there must be another person who took his 6.5438+0 million shares. Assuming that the company's market value remains at 654.38+00 billion, this part of his virtual economy has indeed turned into a real economy. However, if the stock plummets and falls back to the market value of 2 billion, the assets of the receiver will shrink.
So in fact, the stock market that does not create new value only depends on price fluctuation, which only causes the transfer of assets. After all, the sum of virtual economy and real economy has not changed. Therefore, if the stock market is prosperous again, if the bubble is huge, once the bubble bursts, it will do great harm to the real economy. If the stock market really wants to create value, only when listed companies earn more profits can the market value of the company be truly supported and truly transformed into real value.
This is true for derivatives such as funds and futures. Derivatives are relatively complex and leveraged, which will amplify gains and losses, but they are generally zero-sum games. Derivatives such as futures also need to rely on the real economy, such as commodity futures. The price of a contract depends on the rise and fall of commodities, which are affected by the relationship between supply and demand. Without the real economy, these contracts become completely virtual objects and meaningless. Stock index futures look like this, but as I said just now, the stock market depends on listed companies, so stock index futures also rely on listed companies indirectly through stock indexes, and ultimately it is closely related to the real economy.
Second, e-commerce industry.
In recent years, the public has been controversial about the e-commerce industry. The e-commerce industry started abroad, then EBAY entered China, and then Alibaba was established. Alibaba's Taobao really opened the era of domestic e-commerce. Early Taobao makers really made money, because there were few sellers and buyers from scratch, almost showing a grade increase. Soon, Taobao defeated Yi Bei and became the leader of domestic e-commerce. Later, Taobao Mall was established and later renamed Tmall Mall. JD.COM Net, Newegg and Suning.cn came into being, and the e-commerce industry entered the era of melee. After years of "fighting", Ali, JD.COM and Pinduoduo have formed a "tripartite confrontation".
The public's controversy over e-commerce is that e-commerce has robbed the business of offline merchants, so offline merchants cannot survive. This statement is actually not objective. There is a saying that e-commerce does not require rent and taxes, and even some consignment agents do not need to stock up. The threshold is low, the cost is low, and it is easier to make money, so everyone goes to do e-commerce. But in fact, I really know that I have been an e-commerce. Although I do have the advantages I just mentioned, e-commerce is not so good now. The e-commerce platform needs drainage, and the cost of drainage is very high. However, the homogenization of selling goods is very serious, and the competition is much greater than offline, because buyers can find another buyer in a few seconds, and offline will be limited by the physical environment, and the contrast is not so strong. If e-commerce wants to be a shopping mall, it still needs to pay a high margin, and it also needs to withdraw transaction service fees. If the goods can't be sold without sales, it is also necessary to "swipe the bill", which will cost you, and those who violate the rules will be punished. ...
Because e-commerce is easy to do and robbed the real economy business, it is not established. Only a few people make money from e-commerce, and the real economy is doing well, depending on the ability of the operators themselves.
E-commerce and entities are not necessarily antagonistic. Without the support of entities, e-commerce cannot operate. Whether selling clothes or furniture, these things need the real economy to produce. On a large scale, the development of e-commerce itself has promoted the development of the real economy and even opened up a new real economy. For example, if customized goods are provided through the e-commerce platform, then this part of the real economy is created by the "virtual" platform of e-commerce. Coupled with the huge e-commerce trading goods need logistics and transportation, which also promotes the real economy.
Judging from the development of e-commerce platforms in the past two years, the growth rate is actually declining, which is why Alibaba put forward the concept of "new retail" a few years ago. In the future, the mode of complete separation of e-commerce and entities is difficult to continue to grow. It is necessary to get through the online and offline, and combine the virtual economy with the real economy to have a way out.
Third, social platforms.
The early social platform was really social. You can have a chat and have a heart-to-heart chat when you are free. But later, in fact, social interaction became more commercial, and now there are very few people who spend a long time just chatting every day. Then, these social platforms have actually separated from the early pure social attributes and integrated into the real economy more widely.
For example, many people who do WeChat official accounts only create content at first, and some readers will be rewarded. This is a relatively simple social realization, but it is not the mainstream now. Nowadays, many large companies have their own official WeChat accounts, which will spend money on gifts and other powder-sucking activities, and then publish all kinds of interesting content to operate through the platform of WeChat official accounts, hold various activities, and finally guide users' consumption through virtual social interaction and turn it into a real economy.
Another example is the live broadcast industry. In the early live broadcast industry, the platform found a group of anchors, danced and sang in front of the camera, and then users bought various "gifts" to reward them, and the platform and anchors were divided. This is an obvious virtual economy circulation component. But now this method is out of date, and the live broadcast industry has entered the era of "content e-commerce". For example, Li Jiaqi, the elder brother with goods, created his own personal IP through live broadcast, and then sold lipstick on live broadcast for promotion, so he brought goods in five hours and 3.53 million in five and a half hours.
This "with goods" model has even begun to challenge the traditional e-commerce model. In the future 5G era, network transmission will be faster, and video content will replace text as the mainstream (maybe my code word will be eliminated in the future). Through social ways, we will build a virtual social networking platform, and through more vivid and vivid video ways, such as the future VR experience, we will narrow the distance with consumers, so that consumers can truly feel the scene and understand the goods, so as to choose more suitable goods. This seems to be a social virtual economy, but it will eventually be implemented as "bringing goods", and the goods themselves cover all the processes of the real economy.
To sum up, the relationship between the real economy and the virtual economy is interdependent, not antagonistic. With the continuous progress of science and technology, the scale of virtual economy will become larger and larger in the future. However, whether it is the virtual economy of the financial industry, e-commerce platforms or social networks, it is ultimately necessary to rely on the development of the real economy and find more customers with better products. At the same time, these new economic models will in turn promote the scale of the real economy, provide more big data through information feedback, and make the real economy develop more pertinently.