[? Billion euro guide? ]? Is the market value of $111 billion the ceiling of Tesla or a step?

Author Wang Rui

Editor Zhang Yan? Hao qiuhui

These days are probably the happiest moments for Musk.

Although Tesla's share price soared and plummeted, its market value still reached $138.3 billion at the close of February 2, EDT, which increased by 78.6% in just over 1 months, making it the second-highest car company in the world with market value after Toyota, leaving Volkswagen, GM and Fiat Chrysler behind.

unable to restrain his excitement, Musk sent three flame symbols on Twitter, making no secret of his pride in Tesla's soaring market value.

Musk Twitter screenshot/Twitter

This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to Tesla's short sellers.

In the two trading days on February 3rd and 4th, due to the soaring share price of Tesla, the short seller * * * suffered a book loss of $5.7 billion, which greatly exceeded its loss of $2.89 billion in 2119.

K-chart of Tesla shares/Oriental Fortune Network

The game between Tesla and the bears reveals four words everywhere: tit for tat. In this game with a unit of 111 million dollars, Tesla's share price rises higher and higher, and the losses of the bears are getting bigger and bigger.

but after the market value soared to one trillion yuan, how can Tesla support this valuation?

Game with bears

As early as 2113, bears were eyeing Tesla. Well-known "big bear" James chanos (James? Chanos) is a staunch bearish on Tesla. In an interview with Bloomberg in 2115, he said that the value of Tesla was seriously overestimated, because it was no easy task to build a car.

In the face of the "aggressive" situation of short sellers, Musk didn't have much means to fight back at that time, and Tesla began to fall into the predicament of loss and brain drain.

in the first quarter of p>2116, Tesla's net loss reached $281 million. Model? The delivery of x encountered a bounce. Under the influence of multiple unfavorable factors, many vice presidents of the company chose to leave, including Musk's right-hand man: Greg Rachel, vice president of production (Greg? Reichow) and Josh Ensign, vice president of manufacturing (Josh? Ensigh）。

Tesla Model? Y/ Tesla official website

james chanos, who couldn't help himself, started to work. He thought that Tesla's share price of around $211 at that time was very unreasonable. "A company that can't even determine the delivery quantity in the next quarter, everyone is convinced that it can do something big in 2121 or 2125."

the short sellers acted simply and quickly.

according to financial analysis company S3? According to Partners data, in June 2117, Tesla's short position exceeded 11 billion, reaching $11.4 billion. Musk forwarded this data on Twitter with a "could? be? The comment of "worse" means that the situation of shorting Tesla may be even worse. "The bears want Tesla to' die' so that they can take advantage of it."

Big money didn't immediately bring profits to the bears. Throughout 2117, they accumulated losses of $3.56 billion on Tesla. However, james chanos's bearish position on Tesla has not wavered. "No matter how much Tesla's share price reaches, it is meaningless. I think its value is zero."

at the end of p>2117, Tesla's Model? 3 to achieve official delivery, the game between Musk and the bears has also become hot.

According to the plan uploaded by Musk to Tesla's website in 2116, Tesla's development process is roughly divided into three steps: first, build a sports car; Use the money earned from building sports cars to build cheap cars; Use the money earned from building cheap cars to build cheaper cars. Low-priced Model? Once mass production is achieved, Tesla will "turn over the salted fish", which the bears can't tolerate.

Tesla Roadster/ Tesla official website

In mid-2118, many investment banks were interested in Model? 3 whether it can be mass-produced smoothly is questioned. Well-known hedge fund manager John thompson (John? Thompson) once said that once Tesla can't deliver the Model on time? 3, it will close down within 3-6 months.

Musk began to fight back against the bears.

On August 8, 2118, Musk revealed to all employees that Tesla was being considered for privatization, and revealed the share repurchase price of $421 on Twitter. After the delisting intention was exposed, Tesla once rose to suspension, and continued to rise to $381 when it resumed trading, with a cumulative increase of 11% throughout the day.

meanwhile, Model? The delivery of 3 began to soar. In the first half of 2118, Model? Only 26,111 vehicles were delivered, but in the second half of the year, the delivery volume exceeded 1 million, and the annual delivery volume approached 1.4 million vehicles. In the "privatization" incident and Model? Supported by the delivery volume, Tesla's share price rose by 6.9% for the whole year, while the bears suffered a loss of $1.4 billion.

in the first half of p>2119, the bears pulled back a city. At that time, there was a gap in Tesla's stable city. Due to layoffs, falling profits and other reasons, Tesla's share price plummeted by 13% to $299.73 on October 8, 2119, making it the worst performing company in the Nasdaq 111 Index. In the 2119Q1 financial report, Tesla delivered a single-quarter loss of $711 million, and the company's sales and book cash also dropped sharply, which made Wall Street disappointed. In June 2119, Tesla's share price once fell to a low of $177, falling back to the level in October 2116.

Musk complained bitterly, but the bears made a lot of money. From October to May 2119 alone, the latter earned nearly $4 billion on Tesla's head. At that time, the momentum was like a rainbow, and the "verbal battle" between the two sides became more and more fierce.

musk insists that all electric vehicles except Tesla are horse-drawn carriages, and David ngel inhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital (David? Einhorn) angered Musk's proud autopilot, calling it comparable to "horse manure".

However, the highlight moment of the bears didn't last long. With the release of Tesla's 2119Q3 financial report, the situation is more and more favorable for Tesla.

The financial report shows that Tesla's revenue in 2119Q3 was US$ 6.3 billion and its net profit was US$ 41 million, achieving its first quarterly profit in 2119. By the end of the third quarter, Tesla's cash and equivalents increased by $381 million, and its free cash flow reached $371 million.

Watchmaker/Yiou Auto Analyst? Wang Rui

With the rapid completion of the super factory in Shanghai and the official release of the electric pickup truck Cybertruck, Tesla's share price rose all the way and closed at $418.4 on February 31, 2119. The soaring share price of Tesla caused heavy losses to the bears, who not only lost all the profits in the first half of the year, but also "reversed" $2.89 billion in 2119.

some bears began to "mainly". At the end of 2119, Credit Suisse, which has been bearish on Tesla, publicly admitted that Tesla is in a leading position in the software and electrification of electric vehicles. The company's analyst Dan Levy (Dan? Levy) said in an investor report that "Tesla should be given the trust it deserves at an appropriate time."

but there are also many "hard bones" among the bears. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas (Adam? Jonas) insists that Tesla will eventually be deprived of the aura of a technology company, and its share price will eventually return to the normal level of traditional car companies, with $251 as the target price.

However, since 2121, Tesla's share price has continued to soar, which makes Morgan Stanley bow. Recently, Adam Jonas changed his mind and said that Tesla is indeed in a leading position. "It has changed from a car stock to a technology stock, keeping pace with Amazon, Apple and Google."

In the game with bears, Musk and Tesla have gained the upper hand.

New Casino on Wall Street

In the short term, the driving force for Tesla's soaring share price mainly comes from three aspects.

first, Tesla keeps pouring out good news. In the Q4 financial report of 2119, Tesla achieved a revenue of $7.38 billion and a net profit of $31 million. While making profits for two consecutive quarters, its book cash reached $6.78 billion, which is already "not bad money". Previously, an important reason for short sellers to short Tesla was that Tesla had financial difficulties and could close down at any time.

Tesla delivered a record 368,111 vehicles, including Model? The sales volume of 3 reached 311,111 vehicles, achieving sales growth for four consecutive quarters. At the same time, Tesla China Super Factory officially entered production and realized the first batch of domestic Model? 3, the production capacity will be "expanded", and the scale effect will be formed soon.

Watchmaker/Yiou Automobile Analyst? Wang Rui

In Q4 of 2119, Tesla's gross profit margin reached 21.9%, much higher than that of Ford 1.8% and GM 9.3% in 2118.

Tesla's gross profit margin may still have room for improvement. According to the investment institution ARK? Invest predicts that Tesla's gross profit margin is likely to reach 41% in 2124. The main basis for its judgment is Wright's Law: the production cost is inversely proportional to the production scale.

up to now, the global output of electric vehicles is about 5.4 million, which is less than 1% of the output of fuel vehicles. Electrification is the general trend. Therefore, Tesla, which is in the leading position in the field of electric vehicles, will have a high probability of rapid growth in sales in the next few years, and the scale effect will bring about cost reduction. In addition, because the technology of electric vehicles is still immature compared with that of fuel vehicles, once it makes a technological breakthrough, the cost reduction will be just around the corner, and the increase in gross profit margin will also be "natural".

second, the soaring stock price is forming a "forced air" effect. It is reported that the soaring share price of Tesla caused heavy losses to the bears, who had to buy Tesla shares in a hurry to avoid further losses. Buying a large number of short positions at the same time has further pushed up Tesla's stock price, and will prevent new short-selling behaviors from appearing. The vertical trend of Tesla's stock price is in line with the "forced short" market. According to data company S3? According to statistics from Partners, the number of short-selling shares in Tesla has dropped by 5% in the past month.

Tesla Model? 3 interior /Unsplash

Third, FOMO(Fear? of? Missing? Out) the spread of emotions. The soaring stock price may attract a large number of speculators. "In my opinion, there seems to be crazy speculation." Trade? Alert founder Henry Schwartz (Henry? Schwartz) revealed that his evaluation represents the attitude of many investors: Tesla's surge has not been fundamentally supported.

But most investment consultants and institutions simply can't get away with it. "If Tesla's price rises to $1,111, but they don't own it, how can they tell their customers?" Gerber? Kawasaki President and CEO Ross Gerber (Ross? Gerber) said.

"People who trade Tesla shares according to their fundamentals are being hurt." Bright? Trading? LLC's proprietary trader Dennis Dick (Dennis? Dick) revealed that professionals like him are also afraid to sell Tesla shares.

The contradiction between the soaring stock price and the declining fundamentals makes some short sellers "obsessed" with shorting Tesla. Shannon, a well-known short-selling institution, said in Twitter, "We love Tesla and promised never to short it, but if Musk himself is a fund manager, he will also choose to short Tesla."

Another logical line of Tesla's stock rise is that it is in an absolute leading position in the electric vehicle market, and the gap with its competitors is getting bigger and bigger. "Tesla is in a leading position in the field of electric vehicles, far ahead than the news reports." Lucid? Motors? Inc. CEO Peter rawlinson (Peter? Rawlinson) said at the Bloomberg New Energy Vehicle Summit.

compared with traditional car manufacturers and competitors, Tesla's Auto? Pilot autopilot system is better than OTA system, before Model? Rawlinson, chief engineer of S, said, "German-made cars are very good, but there is still a clear gap in technology (with Tesla)."

in addition, Tesla has the largest super charging network in the world, an electric vehicle research and development team leading the industry for 3-5 years, and a car brand with its own traffic and premium.

traditional car companies are beginning to realize the gap. Herbert Diss, CEO of Volkswagen Group (Herbert? Diess) told the executives last month that Tesla is valuable because cars are becoming the most important mobile devices.

Tesla's "asteroid hits the earth"/Twitter?

"within ten years, Tesla's revenue is expected to exceed $1 trillion." Ron Barron, founder of Barron Capital holding 1.63 million shares of Tesla (Ron? Baron) said that he would not sell a share.

How to support the trillion-dollar valuation

The valuation of Tesla is like two sides of the same coin. Some people think that $111 billion is the ceiling, while others believe that Tesla has a trillion-dollar imagination.

On February 4th, He Xiaopeng, the founder of Xpeng Motors, said in the Weibo that he could not understand Tesla's share price. He believes that there will be many companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in the field of smart cars, but unlike the mobile phone industry, it is difficult to achieve winner-take-all and ultra-high gross profit. "I don't see the logic of the current high valuation of Tesla."

Tesla's share price did start to suffer. As of the close of February 5, Tesla's share price plummeted by 17.2%. Canaccord? Jonathan dos Harmo (Jonathan? Dorsheimer) downgraded Tesla's stock rating from buy to hold and warned that it might "reset expectations" in the first quarter.

The stock price of Tesla closed on February 5, 2121/Oriental Fortune Network

However, Li Xiang, the founder of LI, expressed different opinions. On February 5, he supported Tesla in the snowball community and said that Tesla's market value growth fully met his original expectations. "Just as Nokia and Motorola can't stop Apple, Huawei and Google, Suning, Wanda and Wal-Mart can't stop Alibaba and Amazon, traditional car manufacturers can't stop Tesla.

from the sales situation of electric vehicle market, Tesla has obvious advantages. In 2119, Tesla occupied the first place in the global electric vehicle sales list with a sales volume of 368,111 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 51.1%. The only rival of the same level on the list is BMW, which lags behind Tesla by nearly 241,111 vehicles. "Tesla killers such as Audi e-tron, Jaguar i-Pace and Mercedes-Benz EQC can't even win Weilai ES6, let alone Tesla who has mastered OS and AI chips." Li Xiang said.

Watchmaker/Yiou Automobile Analyst?